Harnessing Windfall Revenues: Optimal Policies for Resource-Rich Developing Economies

A windfall of natural resource revenue (or foreign aid) faces government with choices of how to manage public debt, investment, and the distribution of funds for consumption, particularly if the windfall is both anticipated and temporary. We show that the permanent income hypothesis prescription of an ever-lasting increase in consumption financed by borrowing ahead of the windfall and then accumulating a Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) is not optimal for capital-scarce developing economies. Such countries should accumulate public and private capital to accelerate their development and, only if the windfall is large relative to initial foreign debt, is it optimal to build a SWF. The optimal time profile of consumption is biased towards the near future, as compared to the permanent income hypothesis. Outcomes depend on instruments available to government. We study cases where the government can make lump-sum transfers to consumers; where such transfers are impossible so optimal policy involves cutting distortionary taxation in order to raise investment and wages; and where Ricardian consumers can borrow against future revenues, in which case the policy response to possible over-consumption is a high level of investment in infrastructure.natural resource revenue, windfall public revenues, risk premium on foreign debt, public infrastructure, private investment, credit constraints, optimal fiscal policy, debt management, Sovereign Wealth Fund, asset holding subsidy, developing economies

Genome sequence of Streptococcus mutans bacteriophage M102

Bacteriophage M102 is a lytic phage specific for serotype c strains of Streptococcus mutans, a causative agent of dental caries. In this study, the complete genome sequence of M102 was determined. The genome is 31,147 bp in size and contains 41 ORFs. Most of the ORFs encoding putative phage structural proteins show similarity to those from bacteriophages from Streptococcus thermophilus. Bioinformatic analysis indicated that the M102 genome contains an unusual lysis cassette, which encodes a holin and two lytic enzyme

Characterization of Streptococcus gordonii prophage PH15: complete genome sequence and functional analysis of phage-encoded integrase and endolysin

Streptococcus gordonii OMZ1039, isolated from supragingival dental plaque, was found to harbour a prophage, PH15, whose excision could be induced by mitomycin treatment. Phage PH15 belongs to the Siphoviridae. The complete genome sequence of PH15 was determined. The genome was 39 136 bp in size and contained 61 ORFs. The genome of PH15 was most similar in the structural module to the temperate bacteriophages MM1 and phiNIH1.1 from Streptococcus pneumoniae and Streptococcus pyogenes, respectively. In strain OMZ1039, PH15 was found to reside as a prophage in the cysteinyl-tRNA gene. A plasmid, harbouring the attP site and the integrase gene downstream of a constitutive promoter, was capable of site-specific integration into the genomes of different oral streptococcal species. The phage endolysin was purified after expression in Escherichia coli and found to inhibit growth of all S. gordonii strains tested and several different streptococcal species, including the pathogens Streptococcus mutans, S. pyogenes and Streptococcus agalactiae

Exploring the proportionality of representation in interest group mobilization and political access: the case of the Netherlands

Surveys reveal that there are great differences among citizens in their membership of political associations. Such differences plausibly lead to a better representation of interests of privileged citizens compared to other citizens. We examine the demographic groups (in terms of education, gender and immigration background) that tend to be members of interest groups. We also investigate the relation between the membership profile of associations and the propensity of interest groups to be routinely approached by policymakers. The results of our elite survey of Dutch interest associations indicate that relatively well-educated citizens and men are better represented in interest groups. Patterns of underrepresentation are not further exacerbated by the outreach of policy-makers, except that interest associations with a relatively large female membership are less likely to be consulted

Prediction of COVID-19 Infections for Municipalities in the Netherlands:Algorithm Development and Interpretation

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 was first identified in December 2019 in the city of Wuhan, China. The virus quickly spread and was declared a pandemic on March 11, 2020. After infection, symptoms such as fever, a (dry) cough, nasal congestion, and fatigue can develop. In some cases, the virus causes severe complications such as pneumonia and dyspnea and could result in death. The virus also spread rapidly in the Netherlands, a small and densely populated country with an aging population. Health care in the Netherlands is of a high standard, but there were nevertheless problems with hospital capacity, such as the number of available beds and staff. There were also regions and municipalities that were hit harder than others. In the Netherlands, there are important data sources available for daily COVID-19 numbers and information about municipalities. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to predict the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 infections per 10,000 inhabitants per municipality in the Netherlands, using a data set with the properties of 355 municipalities in the Netherlands and advanced modeling techniques. METHODS: We collected relevant static data per municipality from data sources that were available in the Dutch public domain and merged these data with the dynamic daily number of infections from January 1, 2020, to May 9, 2021, resulting in a data set with 355 municipalities in the Netherlands and variables grouped into 20 topics. The modeling techniques random forest and multiple fractional polynomials were used to construct a prediction model for predicting the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 infections per 10,000 inhabitants per municipality in the Netherlands. RESULTS: The final prediction model had an R(2) of 0.63. Important properties for predicting the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 infections per 10,000 inhabitants in a municipality in the Netherlands were exposure to particulate matter with diameters <10 μm (PM10) in the air, the percentage of Labour party voters, and the number of children in a household. CONCLUSIONS: Data about municipality properties in relation to the cumulative number of confirmed infections in a municipality in the Netherlands can give insight into the most important properties of a municipality for predicting the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 infections per 10,000 inhabitants in a municipality. This insight can provide policy makers with tools to cope with COVID-19 and may also be of value in the event of a future pandemic, so that municipalities are better prepared