Comparison of Risk of Recrudescent Fever in Children With Kawasaki Disease Treated With Intravenous Immunoglobulin and Low-Dose vs High-Dose Aspirin

Importance: Timely initiation of intravenous immunoglobulin plus aspirin is necessary for decreasing the risk of recrudescent fever and coronary artery abnormalities in children with Kawasaki disease (KD). The optimal dose of aspirin, however, remains unclear. Objective: To evaluate whether initial treatment with low-dose compared with high-dose aspirin in children with KD is associated with an increase in fever recrudescence. Design, Setting, and Participants: A retrospective cohort study of 260 children with KD at Riley Hospital for Children, Indianapolis, Indiana, between January 1, 2007, and December 31, 2018, was conducted. Children aged 0 to 18 years with a first episode of KD, identified by International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision and International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision diagnosis codes treated within 10 days of symptom onset with high-dose intravenous immunoglobulin plus aspirin were eligible. Patients who received an alternative diagnosis, experienced a second episode of KD, did not receive intravenous immunoglobulin plus aspirin for initial treatment, were not treated within 10 days of symptoms, or had incomplete records were excluded. Exposures: High-dose (≥10 mg/kg/d) or low-dose (<10 mg/kg/d) aspirin therapy. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was recrudescent fever necessitating retreatment of KD. The secondary outcomes were coronary artery abnormalities and hospital length of stay. Results: Among the 260 patients included, the median (interquartile range) age was 2.5 (1.6-4.3) years, 103 (39.6%) were girls, 166 (63.8%) were non-Hispanic white, 57 (21.9%) were African American, 22 (8.5%) were Asian, 11 (4.2%) were Hispanic, and 4 (1.5%) were of unknown race/ethnicity. One hundred-forty-two patients (54.6%) were treated with low-dose aspirin. There was no association between recrudescent fever and aspirin dose, with 39 children (27.5%) having recrudescent fever in the low-dose group compared with 26 children (22.0%) in the high-dose group (odds ratio [OR], 1.34; 95% CI, 0.76-2.37; P = .31), with similar results after adjusting for potential confounding variables (OR, 1.63; 95% CI, 0.89-2.97; P = .11). In a subset analysis of 167 children with complete KD, however, there was nearly a 2-fold difference in the odds of recrudescent fever with low-dose aspirin (OR, 1.87; 95% CI, 0.82-4.23; P = .14), although this difference did not reach statistical significance. In addition, no association was identified between treatment group and coronary artery abnormalities (low-dose, 7.4% vs high-dose, 9.4%; OR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.48-1.55; P = .62) or median (interquartile range) length of stay (3 [3-5] days for both groups; P = .27). Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, low-dose aspirin for the initial treatment of children with KD was not associated with fever recrudescence or coronary artery abnormalities. Given the potential benefits, further study of low-dose aspirin to detect potentially clinically relevant outcome differences is warranted to inform treatment decisions and guideline development

Association between Pitch Break on the 4-Seam Fastball and Slider and Shoulder Injury in Major League Baseball Pitchers: A Case-Control Study

Background: Few specific risk factors are known for shoulder injury in professional pitchers. New pitch-tracking data allow for risk stratification based on advanced metrics. Purpose/Hypothesis: The purpose of this study was to determine the association between shoulder injury, pitch frequency, and pitch metrics (velocity, total break, break angle, and spin rate) for the 4-seam fastball, curveball, and slider. We hypothesized that more frequent use of the 4-seam fastball would be associated with shoulder injury. Study Design: Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: The Major League Baseball (MLB) database was queried for pitchers who had been placed on the injury list (IL) with a shoulder injury between 2015 and 2019. Injured pitchers were matched 1:1 with controls (pitchers not on the IL with a shoulder injury during the study period), based on age (±1 year), history of ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction, position (starter vs reliever), and pitches thrown during the injury season (±500). Pitch frequency, velocity, horizontal break, vertical break, total break, and spin rate for the season were collected from the Baseball Savant website for the 4-seam fastball, curveball, and slider. Univariate analysis was used to determine group differences for individual variables. Multiple logistic regression was performed to determine odds ratios (ORs) for shoulder injury associated with pitch frequency, velocity, total break, break angle, and spin rate. Covariates included age, position, ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction status, expected weighted on-base average, and total pitches thrown. Results: Overall, 233 injured pitchers were evaluated. The most common reason for IL placement was inflammation (78/233; 33.5%) followed by strain or sprain (61/233; 26.2%). Increased total pitch break was associated with an increased risk of shoulder injury for the 4-seam fastball (OR, 1.340 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.199-1.509]; P \u3c .001) and slider (OR, 1.360 [95% CI, 1.206-1.554]; P \u3c .001). For the slider, a decreased spin rate (OR = 0.998 [95% CI, 0.997-0.999]; P = .026) and a more vertical break angle (OR = 1.170 [95% CI: 1.073-1.278]; P = .004) were associated with increased risk of injury. Conclusion: Increased pitch break of the 4-seam fastball and slider was associated positively with shoulder injury in MLB pitchers. These findings add to the understanding of throwing injury and ability to detect risk using ball-tracking technology

More Elevated Fastballs Associated with Placement on the Injured List Due to Shoulder Injury

Purpose To evaluate whether impending shoulder injury was associated with changes in pitch location or velocity immediately preceding injury. Methods Pitchers placed on the injured list (IL) due to a shoulder injury between 2015 and 2020 were identified in the Major League Baseball transactions database. Four-seam fastball velocity and frequency of pitch location for each pitch type was collected for each player in the season before placement on the IL and within 1 month of placement on the IL with a minimum of 55 pitches thrown of 1 type. Pitch locations were collected as identified by Baseball Savant’s Game-Day Zones. Game-Day Zones were consolidated into high (above the strike zone midpoint) versus low, arm side (closer to the pitcher’s arm side of the plate) versus opposite side, and within the strike zone versus out of zone. Repeated measures analysis of variance determined differences in four-seam velocity and the location distribution of 4-seam fastballs, change-ups, and breaking balls among each group. Results In total, 267 pitchers were placed on the IL for a shoulder injury with the majority diagnosed with inflammation (89/267) followed by strain or sprain (69/267). Four-seam fastball locations significantly increased above the mid-point of the zone (45.9% vs 42.4%, P = .008) and out of the strike zone (48.5% vs 46.5%, P = .011) within a month before IL placement. There was no significant change in 4-seam fastball velocity immediately before IL placement. Conclusions Pitchers threw more elevated 4-seam fastballs and out-of-zone 4-seam fastballs in the month before IL placement for shoulder injury. These findings suggest that a loss of 4-seam fastball command decreases with impending shoulder injury. Level of Evidence IV, prognostic case series

Injury Rates in Major League Baseball during the 2020 COVID-19 Season

Background: The 2020 Major League Baseball (MLB) season was drastically altered because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The changes included an extended layoff between March and July as well as a shortened preseason. Purpose/Hypothesis: To determine the incidence and epidemiology of MLB injuries in the abbreviated 2020 season compared with prior seasons. We hypothesized that there was an increase in the overall injury rate in the 2020 season compared with the 2018-2019 seasons and that it equally affected all body regions. Study Design: Descriptive epidemiology study. Methods: The MLB transactions database was queried to find players who had been placed on the injury list between 2018 and 2020. Injuries were categorized into upper extremity, lower extremity, spine/core, and other injuries. Incidence per 1000 athlete-exposures was calculated for the prior 2 seasons (2018-2019) and for the 2020 season separately. Incidence for each category was also calculated separately for pitchers and fielders. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and confidence intervals were used to compare injury rates in 2018-2019 versus 2020. The z test for proportions was used to determine significant differences between injury incidences. Results: In 2020, the overall incidence rate per 1000 athlete-exposures was almost twice the rate compared with the 2 seasons before COVID-19 (8.66 vs 5.13; IRR, 1.69 [95% CI, 1.53-1.87]; P \u3c .001). Injury incidence increased similarly in 2020 for both pitchers (IRR, 1.68 [95% CI, 1.47-1.91]; P \u3c .001) and fielders (IRR, 1.68 [95% CI, 1.45-1.96]; P \u3c .001). Increases in injury incidence were seen in the upper extremity, spine/core, and other injury categories; however, the incidence of the lower extremity did not change significantly. Conclusion: There was a significant increase in injury incidence for both pitchers and fielders in 2020. Injury rates increased in anatomic zones of the upper extremity and spine/core but were not significantly changed in the lower extremity. The overall increase in injury rate suggests that irregular or insufficient sport-specific preparation prior to the start of the season placed athletes at a greater risk of injury when play resumed

A scalable system to measure contrail formation on a per-flight basis

Persistent contrails make up a large fraction of aviation's contribution to global warming. We describe a scalable, automated detection and matching (ADM) system to determine from satellite data whether a flight has made a persistent contrail. The ADM system compares flight segments to contrails detected by a computer vision algorithm running on images from the GOES-16 Advanced Baseline Imager. We develop a 'flight matching' algorithm and use it to label each flight segment as a 'match' or 'non-match'. We perform this analysis on 1.6 million flight segments. The result is an analysis of which flights make persistent contrails several orders of magnitude larger than any previous work. We assess the agreement between our labels and available prediction models based on weather forecasts. Shifting air traffic to avoid regions of contrail formation has been proposed as a possible mitigation with the potential for very low cost/ton-CO2e. Our findings suggest that imperfections in these prediction models increase this cost/ton by about an order of magnitude. Contrail avoidance is a cost-effective climate change mitigation even with this factor taken into account, but our results quantify the need for more accurate contrail prediction methods and establish a benchmark for future development.Comment: 25 pages, 6 figure

Incarceration history and risk of HIV and hepatitis C virus acquisition among people who inject drugs: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background People who inject drugs (PWID) experience a high prevalence of incarceration and might be at high risk of HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection during or after incarceration. We aimed to assess whether incarceration history elevates HIV or HCV acquisition risk among PWID. Methods In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, and PsycINFO databases for studies in any language published from Jan 1, 2000 until June 13, 2017 assessing HIV or HCV incidence among PWID. We included studies that measured HIV or HCV incidence among community-recruited PWID. We included only studies reporting original results and excluded studies that evaluated incident infections by self-report. We contacted authors of cohort studies that met the inclusion or exclusion criteria, but that did not report on the outcomes of interest, to request data. We extracted and pooled data from the included studies using random-effects meta-analyses to quantify the associations between recent (past 3, 6, or 12 months or since last follow-up) or past incarceration and HIV or HCV acquisition (primary infection or reinfection) risk among PWID. We assessed the risk of bias of included studies using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Between-study heterogeneity was evaluated using the I2 statistic and the P-value for heterogeneity. Findings We included published results from 20 studies and unpublished results from 21 studies. These studies originated from Australasia, western and eastern Europe, North and Latin America, and east and southeast Asia. Recent incarceration was associated with an 81% (relative risk [RR] 1·81, 95% CI 1·40–2·34) increase in HIV acquisition risk, with moderate heterogeneity between studies (I2=63·5%; p=0·001), and a 62% (RR 1·62, 95% CI 1·28–2·05) increase in HCV acquisition risk, also with moderate heterogeneity between studies (I2=57·3%; p=0·002). Past incarceration was associated with a 25% increase in HIV (RR 1·25, 95% CI 0·94–1·65) and a 21% increase in HCV (1·21, 1·02–1·43) acquisition risk. Interpretation Incarceration is associated with substantial short-term increases in HIV and HCV acquisition risk among PWID and could be a significant driver of HCV and HIV transmission among PWID. These findings support the need for developing novel interventions to minimise the risk of HCV and HIV acquisition, including addressing structural risks associated with drug laws and excessive incarceration of PWID

Empirical Power and Sample Size Calculations for Cluster-Randomized and Cluster-Randomized Crossover Studies

In recent years, the number of studies using a cluster-randomized design has grown dramatically. In addition, the cluster-randomized crossover design has been touted as a methodological advance that can increase efficiency of cluster-randomized studies in certain situations. While the cluster-randomized crossover trial has become a popular tool, standards of design, analysis, reporting and implementation have not been established for this emergent design. We address one particular aspect of cluster-randomized and cluster-randomized crossover trial design: estimating statistical power. We present a general framework for estimating power via simulation in cluster-randomized studies with or without one or more crossover periods. We have implemented this framework in the clusterPower software package for R, freely available online from the Comprehensive R Archive Network. Our simulation framework is easy to implement and users may customize the methods used for data analysis. We give four examples of using the software in practice. The clusterPower package could play an important role in the design of future cluster-randomized and cluster-randomized crossover studies. This work is the first to establish a universal method for calculating power for both cluster-randomized and cluster-randomized clinical trials. More research is needed to develop standardized and recommended methodology for cluster-randomized crossover studies