Estimación del costo económico en Argentina de la mortalidad atribuible al tabaco en adultos.

Existe amplia evidencia científica que vincula al tabaquismo con la mortalidad. Para estimar el costo de la mortalidad anual atribuible al tabaco (MAT) para adultos en Argentina se utilizaron datos de prevalencia de consumo de fumadores y ex fumadores (SEDRONAR), riesgos relativos de muerte por las patologías relevantes (Cancer Prevention Study II), muertes por dichas enfermedades y el valor de la consecuente productividad perdida. Se concluye que en el 2000, se produjeron 39.131 MAT en Argentina en los mayores de 35 años (16% de las de ese grupo). El costo anual medido como pérdida de ingresos futuros por mortalidad prematura fue de 469 millones de pesos, implicando esto $14 por habitante y 0,17% del PBI del año 2000. También se encontraron diferencias debidas a cada causa de mortalidad por sexo y edad.Epidemiología, Tabaco, Mortalidad, Valuación

An algorithm to fit conditional tail expectation regression models for vehicle excess speed in driving data

[EN] An algorithm to fit regression models aimed at predicted the average responses beyond a conditional quantile level is presented. This procedure is implemented in a case study of insured drivers covering almost 10,000. The aim is to predict the expected yearly distance driven above the posted speed limits as a function of driving patterns such as total distance, urban and night percent driven. Gender and age are also controlled. Results are analyzed for the median and the top decile. The conclusions provide evidence of factors influencing speed limit violations for risky drivers and they are interesting to price motor insurance and implement road safety policies. The efficiency of the algorithm to fit tail expectation regression is compared to quantile regression. Computational time doubles for tail expectation regression compared to quantile regression. Standard errors are estimated via bootstrap methods. Further considerations regarding in-sample predictive performance are discussed. In particular, further restrictions should be imposed in the model specification to avoid prediction outside the plausible rangePitarque, A.; Guillen, M. (2020). An algorithm to fit conditional tail expectation regression models for vehicle excess speed in driving data. Editorial Universitat Politècnica de València. 51-58. https://doi.org/10.4995/CARMA2020.2020.11512OCS515

Context, Remember-Know recognition judgments and ROC parameters

Recent work (e.g., Dunn, 2004; Heathcote, 2003) has questioned the necessity of postulating two processes to explain recognition memory. As part of this trend, strength theories of the remember\u10fc00know methodology have gained in support. We present three experiments with pictorial material in which we force participants to use differential contextual information at test. Participants were required to give remember-know judgements and confidence ratings for each test stimulus. Hits, false alarms, remember-know data, and discrimination indices indicated systematic variations as a function of the availability and use of contextual information. Moreover, when we normalised the receiver operating characteristic data in terms of z-scores, the slopes were lower than 1 and slightly concave. Additionally, we computed the same set of statistical indices suggested by Wixted and Stretch (2004), with mixed results. Overall, we think that the data support a two-factor theory of remember-know and recognition, although many results fit well signal detection views of the task. Finally, the idea that remember and know responses are pure manifestations of recollection and familiarity seems difficult to sustain. We think that a productive use of the remember-know methodology involves the minimisation of the bias factors that may contaminate the responses, in addition to the introduction of the experimental manipulations needed to promote recollective and/or familiarity processes

The role of perceptual information in familiarity-based scene recognition

A method to analyze the role of familiarity in recognizing pictures of everyday scenes is introduced. The idea is to manipulate two within-subjects conditions: an experimental condition where the scenes repeat perceptual information (e.g. buildings and/or vehicles) and a control condition. The results show the two conditions did not differ in terms of hit rates, but in the experimental condition there were significantly fewer false alarms, yielding better results, which supports the findings of past research studies that have used verbal materials. This perceptual facilitation was maintained throughout a week-long retention interval. Finally, a detailed analysis of this facilitation shows it was due to a significant reduction in false alarms on know judgments, emphasizing familiarity¿s role in explaining this effect

Familiarity Changes as a Function of Perceptual Shifts

This experiment compares the yes-­no and forced recognition tests as methods of measuring familiarity. Participants faced a phase of 3 study-­test recognition trials in which they studied words using all the letters of the alphabet (overlapping condition, O), and an additional phase in which targets and lures did not share any letters (non-­overlapping condition, NO). Finally, subjects performed a forced-­choice task in which they had to choose one of two new words, each from one of the subsets (Parkin et al., 2001). Results in the NO condition higher than .50, showing their sensitivity to familiarity. When the letter set of the words for study in the third list of the NO condition was switched, the difference between NO and O conditions disappeared in yes-­no test, while the force-­choice rate was not higher than .50. We conclude that both the yes-­no test and the forced-­choice test are valid and equivalent measures of familiarity under the right conditions. Este experimento compara tareas de reconocimiento convencionales (sí-no) y de elección forzosa como métodos de medición de la familiaridad. Los participantes realizaron tres tareas de estudio y reconocimiento convencional en las que estudiaron y reconocieron palabras compuestas por todas las letras del alfabeto (condición de solapamiento, O) y otras tantas tareas similares en las que las palabras a estudiar y reconocer, y las palabras de relleno no compartían ninguna letra (condición de no solapamiento, NO). Tras este último bloque de tareas los sujetos realizaban una tarea de elección forzosa en la que tenían que elegir entre dos palabras nuevas, cada una formada por un subconjunto de letras distintas (Parkin et al., 2001). Los resultados en la condición NO fueron mejores que en la condición O en las tareas de reconocimiento sí-no, mientras que la tasa de elecciones forzosas a favor de las palabras formadas por el subconjunto de letras estudiadas fue significativamente superior a 0.50, lo que muestra la sensibilidad de la tarea para medir familiaridad. Cuando en la tercera tarea de no solapamiento cambiamos sorpresivamente el conjunto de letras que formaban las palabras a estudiar y reconocer la diferencia entre las condiciones NO y O desapareció en la tarea de reconocimiento sí-no, mientras que la tasa de elección forzosa dejó de ser superior a 0.50. Se concluye que tanto las tareas de reconocimiento convencional como de elección forzosa dan medidas equivalentes de estimación de la familiaridad bajo las condiciones adecuadas

ROC parameters in item and context recognition

Conflicting theories argue that recognition is achieved either by familiarity exclusively, or by a mixtu- re of familiarity and recollection. We explore in three experiments the goodness of fit of both positions to experimental data in which context information is manipulated. In Experiments 1 and 2, we explore the availability of context information in recognition, testing the focus stimulus, its context, and their associative relation. In Experiment 3, participants were confronted with a plurality task in an attempt to force them to use the peripheral information in recognition. The results show that people acquire specific associative information, and although overall recognition performance was not affected by the use of context, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis showed that people use a duality of processes in recognition

Joint generalized quantile and conditional tail expectation regression for insurance risk analysis

Based on recent developments in joint regression models for quantile and expected shortfall, this paper seeks to develop models to analyse the risk in the right tail of the distribution of non-negative dependent random variables. We propose an algorithm to estimate conditional tail expectation regressions, introducing generalized risk regression models with link functions that are similar to those in generalized linear models. To preserve the natural ordering of risk measures conditional on a set of covariates, we add extra non-negative terms to the quantile regression. A case using telematics data in motor insurance illustrates the practical implementation of predictive risk models and their potential usefulness in actuarial analysis

Remember, know, confidence and the mirror effect: Changes as a function of discriminability conditions

Recognition memory for Spanish-Catalan cognate and noncognate words was testedatretentionintervalsof20minutes,1hour,and24hours(Experiment1) using a remember/know response procedure, and requiring a confidence judgement on the yes/no response. Noncognate words were accompanied by more ``remem- ber'' responses than cognates, and overall A9 was significantly different from remember A9, except in the cognate condition at the longest retention interval. A strong mirror effect for the cognate±noncognate stimulus class was found for overall responding, and for high but not low confidence, indicating a differential use of recollection and familiarity in recognition. In general, the pattern of results was inconsistent with Donaldson's (1996) signal detection model, indicating that, when available, subjects use two different sources of information for discrimina- tion. The examination of individual hits and false alarms as a function of con- fidence indicated that ``remember'' is uniformly associated with high confidence, but ``know'' shows a bipolar pattern. In Experiment 2, new and old words were repeated at test 2 and 3. Repetition greatly affected the difference between the discrimination indices, indicating that an increase in the familiarity of new words prevented the use of a dual source of information in recognition. Results are discussed in terms of Rajaram's distinctiveness (1996, 1998) and Reder, Nhouy- vanisvong, Schunn, Ayers, Angstadt, and Hiraki's (2000) SAC theories