Fertility control as a means of controlling bovine tuberculosis in badger (Meles meles) populations in south-west England: predictions from a spatial stochastic simulation model

A spatial stochastic simulation model was used to assess the potential of fertility control, based on a yet-to-be-developed oral bait-delivered contraceptive directed at females, for the control of bovine tuberculosis in badger populations in south-west England. The contraceptive had a lifelong effect so that females rendered sterile in any particular year remained so for the rest of their lives. The efficacy of fertility control alone repeated annually for varying periods of time was compared with a single culling operation and integrated control involving an initial single cull followed by annually repeated fertility control. With fertility control alone, in no instance was the disease eradicated completely while a viable badger population (mean group size of at least one individual) was still maintained. Near eradication of the disease (less than 1% prevalence) combined with the survival of a minimum viable badger population was only achieved under a very limited set of conditions, either with high efficiency of control (95%) over a short time period (1-3 years) or a low efficiency of control (20%) over an intermediate time period (10-20 years). Under these conditions, it took more than 20 years for the disease to decline to such low levels. A single cull of 80% efficiency succeeded in near eradication of the disease (below 1% prevalence) after a period of 6-8 years, while still maintaining a viable badger population. Integrated strategies reduced disease prevalence more rapidly and to lower levels than culling alone, although the mean badger group size following the onset of control was smaller. Under certain integrated strategies, principally where a high initial cull (80%) was followed by fertility control over a short (1-3 year) time period, the disease could be completely eradicated while a viable badger population was maintained. However, even under the most favourable conditions of integrated control, it took on average more than 12 years following the onset of control for the disease to disappear completely from the badger population. These results show that whilst fertility control would not be a successful strategy for the control of bovine tuberculosis in badgers if used alone, it could be effective if used with culling as part of an integrated strategy. This type of integrated strategy is likely to be more effective in terms of disease eradication than a strategy employing culling alone. However, the high cost of developing a suitable fertility control agent, combined with the welfare and conservation implications, are significant factors which should be taken into account when considering its possible use as a means of controlling bovine tuberculosis in badger populations in the UK

Impact of external sources of infection on the dynamics of bovine tuberculosis in modelled badger populations

Background The persistence of bovine TB (bTB) in various countries throughout the world is enhanced by the existence of wildlife hosts for the infection. In Britain and Ireland, the principal wildlife host for bTB is the badger (Meles meles). The objective of our study was to examine the dynamics of bTB in badgers in relation to both badger-derived infection from within the population and externally-derived, trickle-type, infection, such as could occur from other species or environmental sources, using a spatial stochastic simulation model. Results The presence of external sources of infection can increase mean prevalence and reduce the threshold group size for disease persistence. Above the threshold equilibrium group size of 6–8 individuals predicted by the model for bTB persistence in badgers based on internal infection alone, external sources of infection have relatively little impact on the persistence or level of disease. However, within a critical range of group sizes just below this threshold level, external infection becomes much more important in determining disease dynamics. Within this critical range, external infection increases the ratio of intra- to inter-group infections due to the greater probability of external infections entering fully-susceptible groups. The effect is to enable bTB persistence and increase bTB prevalence in badger populations which would not be able to maintain bTB based on internal infection alone. Conclusions External sources of bTB infection can contribute to the persistence of bTB in badger populations. In high-density badger populations, internal badger-derived infections occur at a sufficient rate that the additional effect of external sources in exacerbating disease is minimal. However, in lower-density populations, external sources of infection are much more important in enhancing bTB prevalence and persistence. In such circumstances, it is particularly important that control strategies to reduce bTB in badgers include efforts to minimise such external sources of infection

High interindividual variability in habitat selection and functional habitat relationships in European nightjars over a period of habitat change

An animal's choice of foraging habitat reflects its response to environmental cues and is likely to vary among individuals in a population. Analyzing the magnitude of individual habitat selection can indicate how resilient populations may be to anthropogenic habitat change, where individually varying, broadly generalist populations have the potential to adjust their behavior. We collected GPS point data from 39 European nightjars (Caprimulgus europaeus) at a UK breeding site where restoration measures have altered large areas of habitat between breeding seasons. We calculated individual habitat selection over four breeding seasons to observe changes that might align with change in habitat. We also analyzed change in home range size in line with change in habitat availability, to examine functional relationships that can represent trade‐offs made by the birds related to performance of the habitat.Individual explained more of the variation in population habitat selection than year for most habitat types. Individuals differed in the magnitude of their selection for different habitat types, which created a generalist population composed of both generalist and specialist individuals. Selection also changed over time but only significantly for scrub habitat (60% decrease in selection over 4 years). Across the population, individual home range size was 2% smaller where availability of cleared habitat within the home range was greater, but size increased by 2% where the amount of open water was higher, indicating the presence of trade‐offs related to habitat availability. These results highlight that using individual resource selection and specialization measures, in conjunction with functional responses to change, can lead to better understanding of the needs of a population. Pooling specialist and generalist individuals for analysis could hide divergent responses to change and consequently obscure information that could be important in developing effective conservation strategies

Integrating quantitative and qualitative data in assessing the cost-effectiveness of biodiversity conservation programmes

Globally, most biodiversity conservation programmes are not currently evaluated in terms of their costs and benefits, or their rate of return on the original investment. Assessing the cost-effectiveness of such schemes is challenging as the relationship between spending and the effectiveness of conservation is dependent on many biological and socio-economic factors. Here, we evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a selection of species and habitat conservation schemes undertaken through the Scotland Rural Development Programme. We use a combination of quantitative and qualitative data, based on expert knowledge, to estimate effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of different schemes and understand variations in the results. Our findings highlight a lack of geographical targeting in terms of where the funding might achieve the most conservation benefit, which may be contributing to high costs per unit of effectiveness. Recommendations include the need for improved advice on appropriate management and monitoring programmes that are linked closely to objectives. Conservation schemes within Scotland were used as the focus of the study, but the approaches used, interpretations drawn and improvements identified could be applied to any regional, national or international biodiversity conservation programmes. Cost and effectiveness data can be subject to a high degree of uncertainty and hence any cost-effectiveness estimate is subject to a number of caveats. There is therefore a need to focus not only on improving the cost-effectiveness of biodiversity conservation programmes, but also to improve the robustness of cost-effectiveness assessments, in terms of data availability and accuracy and improved monitoring of the outcomes of interventions

Risk factors for bovine Tuberculosis at the national level in Great Britain

<p><b>Background:</b> The continuing expansion of high incidence areas of bovine Tuberculosis (bTB) in Great Britain (GB) raises a number of questions concerning the determinants of infection at the herd level that are driving spread of the disease. Here, we develop risk factor models to quantify the importance of herd sizes, cattle imports from Ireland, history of bTB, badgers and cattle restocking in determining bTB incidence. We compare the significance of these different risk factors in high and low incidence areas (as determined by parish testing intervals).</p> <p><b>Results:</b> Large herds and fattening herds are more likely to breakdown in all areas. In areas with lower perceived risk (longer testing intervals), the risk of breaking down is largely determined by the number of animals that a herd buys in from high incidence areas. In contrast, in higher perceived risk areas (shorter testing intervals), the risk of breakdown is defined by the history of disease and the probability of badger occurrence. Despite differences in the management of bTB across different countries of GB (England, Wales and Scotland), we found no significant differences in bTB risk at the national level after these other factors had been taken into account.</p> <p><b>Conclusions:</b> This paper demonstrates that different types of farm are at risk of breakdown and that the most important risk factors vary according to bTB incidence in an area. The results suggest that significant gains in bTB control could be made by targeting herds in low incidence areas that import the greatest number of cattle from high incidence areas.</p&gt

The trade-off between fix rate and tracking duration on estimates of home range size and habitat selection for small vertebrates

Despite advances in technology, there are still constraints on the use of some tracking devices for small species when gathering high temporal and spatial resolution data on movement and resource use. For small species, weight limits imposed on GPS loggers and the consequent impacts on battery life, restrict the volume of data that can be collected. Research on home range and habitat selection for these species should therefore incorporate a consideration of how different sampling parameters and methods may affect the structure of the data and the conclusions drawn. However, factors such as these are seldom explicitly considered. We applied two commonly-used methods of home range estimation, Movement-based Kernel Density Estimation (MKDE) and Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) to investigate the influence of fix rate, tracking duration and method on home range size and habitat selection, using GPS tracking data collected at two different fix rates from a small, aerially-insectivorous bird, the European nightjar Caprimulgus europaeus. Effects of tracking parameters varied with home range estimation method. Fix rate and tracking duration most strongly explained change in MKDE and KDE home range size respectively. Total number of fixes and tracking duration had the strongest impact on habitat selection. High between- and within-individual variation strongly influenced outcomes and was most evident when exploring the effects of varying tracking duration. To reduce skew and bias in home range size estimation and especially habitat selection caused by individual variation and estimation method, we recommend tracking animals for the longest period possible even if this results in a reduced fix rate. If accurate movement properties, (e.g. trajectory length and turning angle) and biologically-representative movement occurrence ranges are more important, then a higher fix rate should be used, but priority habitats can still be identified with an infrequent sampling strategy

Climate-driven tipping-points could lead to sudden, high-intensity parasite outbreaks

Parasitic nematodes represent one of the most pervasive and significant challenges to grazing livestock, and their intensity and distribution are strongly influenced by climate. Parasite levels and species composition have already shifted under climate change, with nematode parasite intensity frequently low in newly colonized areas, but sudden large-scale outbreaks are becoming increasingly common. These outbreaks compromise both food security and animal welfare, yet there is a paucity of predictions on how climate change will influence livestock parasites. This study aims to assess how climate change can affect parasite risk. Using a process-based approach, we determine how changes in temperature-sensitive elements of outbreaks influence parasite dynamics, to explore the potential for climate change to influence livestock helminth infections. We show that changes in temperate-sensitive parameters can result in nonlinear responses in outbreak dynamics, leading to distinct 'tipping-points' in nematode parasite burdens. Through applying two mechanistic models, of varying complexity, our approach demonstrates that these nonlinear responses are robust to the inclusion of a number of realistic processes that are present in livestock systems. Our study demonstrates that small changes in climatic conditions around critical thresholds may result in dramatic changes in parasite burdens

Phylodynamic analysis of an emergent Mycobacterium bovis outbreak in an area with no previously known wildlife infections

1. Understanding how an emergent pathogen successfully establishes itself and persists in a previously unaffected population is a crucial problem in disease ecology, with important implications for disease management. In multi-host pathogen systems this problem is particularly difficult, as the importance of each host species to transmission is often poorly characterised, and the disease epidemiology is complex. Opportunities to observe and analyse such emergent scenarios are few. 2. Here, we exploit a unique dataset combining densely-collected data on the epidemiological and evolutionary characteristics of an outbreak of Mycobacterium bovis (the causative agent of bovine tuberculosis, bTB) in a population of cattle and badgers in an area considered low-risk for bTB, with no previous record of either persistent infection in cattle, or of any infection in wildlife. We analyse the outbreak dynamics using a combination of mathematical modelling, Bayesian evolutionary analyses, and machine learning. 3. Comparison to M. bovis whole-genome sequences from Northern Ireland confirmed this to be a single introduction of the pathogen from the latter region, with evolutionary analysis supporting an introduction directly into the local cattle population six years prior to its first discovery in badgers. 4. Once introduced, the evidence supports M. bovis epidemiological dynamics passing through two phases, the first dominated by cattle-to-cattle transmission before becoming established in the local badger population. 5. Synthesis and applications. The raw data object of this analysis were used to support decisions regarding the control of a M. bovis emergent outbreak, of considerable concern because of the geographical distance from previously known high-risk areas. Our further analyses, estimating the time of introduction (and therefore the likely magnitude of any hidden outbreak) and the rates of cross-species transmission, provided valuable confirmation that the extent and focus of the imposed controls were appropriate. Not only these findings strengthen the call for genomic surveillance, but they also pave the path for future outbreaks control, providing insights for more rapid and decisive evidence-based decision-making. As the methods we used and developed are agnostic to the disease itself, they are also valuable for other slowly transmitting pathogens

Do people favour policies that protect future generations? Evidence from a British survey of adults

Long-range temporal choices are built into contemporary policy-making, with policy decisions having consequences that play out across generations. Decisions are made on behalf of the public who are assumed to give much greater weight to their welfare than to the welfare of future generations. The paper investigates this assumption. It briefly discusses evidence from sociological and economic studies before reporting the findings of a British survey of people's intergenerational time preferences based on a representative sample of nearly 10,000 respondents. Questions focused on two sets of policies: (i) health policies to save lives and (ii) environmental policies to protect against floods that would severely damage homes, businesses and other infrastructure. For both sets of policies, participants were offered a choice of three policy options, each bringing greater or lesser benefits to their, their children's and their grandchildren's generations. For both saving lives and protecting against floods, only a minority selected the policy that most benefited their generation; the majority selected policies bringing equal or greater benefits to future generations. Our study raises questions about a core assumption of standard economic evaluation, pointing instead to concern for future generations as a value that many people hold in common