Local form interference in biological motion perception

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

A hybrid commodity and interest rate market model

A joint model of commodity price and interest rate risk is constructed analogously to the multi-currency LIBOR Market Model (LMM). Going beyond a simple 're-interpretation' of the multi-currency LMM, issues arising in the application of the model to actual commodity market data are specifically addressed. Firstly, liquid market prices are only available for options on commodity futures, rather than forwards, thus the difference between forward and futures prices must be explicitly taken into account in the calibration. Secondly, we construct a procedure to achieve a consistent fit of the model to market data for interest options, commodity options and historically estimated correlations between interest rates and commodity prices. We illustrate the model by an application to real market data and derive pricing formulas for commodity spread options. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC

Calibrating a market model with stochastic volatility to commodity and interest rate risk

© 2016 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. Based on the multi-currency LIBOR Market Model, this paper constructs a hybrid commodity interest rate market model with a stochastic local volatility function allowing the model to simultaneously fit the implied volatility surfaces of commodity and interest rate options. Since liquid market prices are only available for options on commodity futures, rather than forwards, a convexity correction formula for the model is derived to account for the difference between forward and futures prices. A procedure for efficiently calibrating the model to interest rate and commodity volatility smiles is constructed. Finally, the model is fitted to an exogenously given correlation structure between forward interest rates and commodity prices (cross-correlation). When calibrating to options on forwards (rather than futures), the fitting of cross-correlation preserves the (separate) calibration in the two markets (interest rate and commodity options), while in the case of futures a (rapidly converging) iterative fitting procedure is presented. The fitting of cross-correlation is reduced to finding an optimal rotation of volatility vectors, which is shown to be an appropriately modified version of the ‘orthonormal Procrustes’ problem in linear algebra. The calibration approach is demonstrated in an application to market data for oil futures

Adverse drug reactions associated with amitriptyline - protocol for a systematic multiple-indication review and meta-analysis

Background: Unwanted anticholinergic effects are both underestimated and frequently overlooked. Failure to identify adverse drug reactions (ADRs) can lead to prescribing cascades and the unnecessary use of over-thecounter products. The objective of this systematic review and meta-analysis is to explore and quantify the frequency and severity of ADRs associated with amitriptyline vs. placebo in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) involving adults with any indication, as well as healthy individuals. Methods: A systematic search in six electronic databases, forward/backward searches, manual searches, and searches for Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and European Medicines Agency (EMA) approval studies, will be performed. Placebo-controlled RCTs evaluating amitriptyline in any dosage, regardless of indication and without restrictions on the time and language of publication, will be included, as will healthy individuals. Studies of topical amitriptyline, combination therapies, or including <100 participants, will be excluded. Two investigators will screen the studies independently, assess methodological quality, and extract data on design, population, intervention, and outcomes ((non-)anticholinergic ADRs, e.g., symptoms, test results, and adverse drug events (ADEs) such as falls). The primary outcome will be the frequency of anticholinergic ADRs as a binary outcome (absolute number of patients with/without anticholinergic ADRs) in amitriptyline vs. placebo groups. Anticholinergic ADRs will be defined by an experienced clinical pharmacologist, based on literature and data from Martindale: The Complete Drug Reference. Secondary outcomes will be frequency and severity of (non-)anticholinergic ADRs and ADEs. The information will be synthesized in meta-analyses and narratives. We intend to assess heterogeneity using metaregression (for indication, outcome, and time points) and I2 statistics. Binary outcomes will be expressed as odds ratios, and continuous outcomes as standardized mean differences. Effect measures will be provided using 95% confidence intervals. We plan sensitivity analyses to assess methodological quality, outcome reporting etc., and subgroup analyses on age, dosage, and duration of treatment. Discussion: We will quantify the frequency of anticholinergic and other ADRs/ADEs in adults taking amitriptyline for any indication by comparing rates for amitriptyline vs. placebo, hence, preventing bias from disease symptoms and nocebo effects. As no standardized instrument exists to measure it, our overall estimate of anticholinergic ADRs may have limitations

Vitamin D deficiency is associated with sudden cardiac death, combined cardiovascular events, and mortality in haemodialysis patients

Dialysis patients experience an excess mortality, predominantly of sudden cardiac death (SCD). Accumulating evidence suggests a role of vitamin D for myocardial and overall health. This study investigated the impact of vitamin D status on cardiovascular outcomes and fatal infections in haemodialysis patients. 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] was measured in 1108 diabetic haemodialysis patients who participated in the German Diabetes and Dialysis Study and were followed up for a median of 4 years. By Cox regression analyses, we determined hazard ratios (HR) for pre-specified, adjudicated endpoints according to baseline 25(OH)D levels: SCD (n = 146), myocardial infarction (MI, n = 174), stroke (n = 89), cardiovascular events (CVE, n = 414), death due to heart failure (n = 37), fatal infection (n = 111), and all-cause mortality (n = 545). Patients had a mean age of 66 +/- 8 years (54% male) and median 25(OH)D of 39 nmol/L (interquartile range: 28-55). Patients with severe vitamin D deficiency [25(OH)D of 75 nmol/L [HR: 2.99, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.39-6.40]. Furthermore, CVE and all-cause mortality were strongly increased (HR: 1.78, 95% CI: 1.18-2.69, and HR: 1.74, 95% CI: 1.22-2.47, respectively), all persisting in multivariate models. There were borderline non-significant associations with stroke and fatal infection while MI and deaths due to heart failure were not meaningfully affected. Severe vitamin D deficiency was strongly associated with SCD, CVE, and mortality, and there were borderline associations with stroke and fatal infection. Whether vitamin D supplementation decreases adverse outcomes requires further evaluation.Clinical epidemiolog

How Prevalent Is Object-Based Attention?

Previous research suggests that visual attention can be allocated to locations in space (space-based attention) and to objects (object-based attention). The cueing effects associated with space-based attention tend to be large and are found consistently across experiments. Object-based attention effects, however, are small and found less consistently across experiments. In three experiments we address the possibility that variability in object-based attention effects across studies reflects low incidence of such effects at the level of individual subjects. Experiment 1 measured space-based and object-based cueing effects for horizontal and vertical rectangles in 60 subjects comparing commonly used target detection and discrimination tasks. In Experiment 2 we ran another 120 subjects in a target discrimination task in which rectangle orientation varied between subjects. Using parametric statistical methods, we found object-based effects only for horizontal rectangles. Bootstrapping methods were used to measure effects in individual subjects. Significant space-based cueing effects were found in nearly all subjects in both experiments, across tasks and rectangle orientations. However, only a small number of subjects exhibited significant object-based cueing effects. Experiment 3 measured only object-based attention effects using another common paradigm and again, using bootstrapping, we found only a small number of subjects that exhibited significant object-based cueing effects. Our results show that object-based effects are more prevalent for horizontal rectangles, which is in accordance with the theory that attention may be allocated more easily along the horizontal meridian. The fact that so few individuals exhibit a significant object-based cueing effect presumably is why previous studies of this effect might have yielded inconsistent results. The results from the current study highlight the importance of considering individual subject data in addition to commonly used statistical methods

Computer Simulation and Fire Drill in an Educational Building

Despite the evolution of computational models for evacuation simulations, there's still some doubt if they can generate accurate results. The objective is to analyze and compare the evacuation times of a fire drill and a computer simulation in an educational building. The method consisted of a fire drill with prior notice of a 4-floor building with classrooms in a public university. A computational model was developed for the same building and population using the evacuation simulation software Pathfinder. The results were that the evacuation times observed in the computer simulation were slightly lower than the times of the fire drill because people covered smaller distances due to the random distribution performed by the Pathfinder software and because in the drill some time was spent for the start of the movement toward the exit, which was estimated at around 30 seconds, while the software was configured for a pre-movement time equal to zero. The use of the computer simulation, therefore, proved to be an effective solution to replace the fire drill, since it allows for the identification of design failures and for the simulation of different scenarios in less time and without the need to mobilize people

On-site early-warning system for bishkek (Kyrgyzstan)

<p>In this work, the development of an on-site early warning system for Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan) is outlined. Several low cost sensors equipped with MEMS accelerometers are installed in eight buildings distributed within the urban area. The different sensing units communicate each other via wireless links and the seismic data are streamed in real-time to the data center using internet. Since each single sensing unit has computing capabilities, software for data processing can be installed to perform decentralized actions. In particular, each sensing unit can perform event detection task and run software for on-site early warning. If a description for the vulnerability of the building is uploaded in the sensing unit, this piece of information can be exploited to introduce the expected probability of damage in the early-warning protocol customized for a specific structure.</p