Approaches to multiplicity in publicly funded pragmatic randomised controlled trials:a survey of clinical trials units and a rapid review of published trials

BACKGROUND: Opinions and practices vary around the issue of performing multiple statistical tests in randomised controlled trials (RCTs). We carried out a study to collate information about opinions and practices using a methodological rapid review and a survey, specifically of publicly funded pragmatic RCTs that are not seeking marketing authorisation. The aim was to identify the circumstances under which researchers would make a statistical adjustment for multiplicity. METHODS: A review was performed extracting information from articles reporting primary analyses of pragmatic RCTs in one of seven high quality medical journals, in January to June (inclusive) 2018. A survey (Survey Monkey) eliciting opinions and practices around multiplicity was distributed to the 47 registered clinical trials units (CTUs) in the UK. RESULTS: One hundred and thirty-eight RCTs were included in the review, and survey responses were received from 27/47 (57%) CTUs. Both the review and survey indicated that adjusting for multiplicity was considered most important for multiple treatment comparisons; adjustment was performed for 11/23 (48%) published trials, and 24/27 (89%) CTU statisticians reported they would consider adjustment. Opinions and practices varied around adjustment for multiplicity arising from multiple primary outcomes and interim analyses. Adjustment was considered less important for multiplicity due to multiple secondary outcomes (adjustment performed for 17/136 [13%] published trials and 3/27 [11%] CTU statisticians would consider adjustment) and subgroup analyses (8/85 [9%] published trials adjusted and 6/27 CTU [22%] statisticians would consider adjustment). CONCLUSIONS: There is variation in opinions about adjustment for multiplicity among both statisticians reporting RCTs and applied statisticians working in CTUs. Further guidance is needed on the circumstances in which adjustment should be considered in relation to primary trial hypotheses, and if there are any situations in which adjustment would be recommended in the context of secondary analyses. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12874-022-01525-9

Analytical challenges in estimating the effect of exposures that are bounded by follow-up time: experiences from the Blood Stream Infection—Focus on Outcomes study

Abstract Objective To illustrate the challenges of estimating the effect of an exposure that is bounded by duration of follow-up on all-cause 28-day mortality, whilst simultaneously addressing missing data and time-varying covariates. Study design and methods BSI-FOO is a multicentre cohort study with the primary aim of quantifying the effect of modifiable risk factors, including time to initiation of therapy, on all-cause 28-day mortality in patients with bloodstream infection. The primary analysis involved two Cox proportional hazard models, first one for non-modifiable risk factors and second one for modifiable risk factors, with a risk score calculated from the first model included as a covariate in the second model. Modifiable risk factors considered in this study were recorded daily for a maximum of 28 days after infection. Follow-up was split at daily intervals from day 0 to 28 with values of daily collected data updated at each interval (i.e., one row per patient per day). Analytical challenges Estimating the effect of time to initiation of treatment on survival is analytically challenging since only those who survive to time t can wait until time t to start treatment, introducing immortal time bias. Time-varying covariates representing cumulative counts were used for variables bounded by survival time e.g. the cumulative count of days before first receipt of treatment. Multiple imputation using chained equations was used to impute missing data, using conditional imputation to avoid imputing non-applicable data e.g. ward data after discharge. Conclusion Using time-varying covariates represented by cumulative counts within a one row per day per patient framework can reduce the risk of bias in effect estimates. The approach followed uses established methodology and is easily implemented in standard statistical packages

Forever-Fit Summer Camp: The Impact of a 6-Week Summer Healthy Lifestyle Day Camp on Anthropometric, Cardiovascular, and Physical Fitness Measures in Youth With Obesity

Pediatric obesity is a public health concern with lifestyle intervention as the first-line treatment. Forever-Fit Summer Camp (FFSC) is a 6-week summer day program offering physical activity, nutrition education, and well-balanced meals to youth at low cost. The aim of the study was to assess the efficacy of this program that does not emphasize weight loss rather emphasizes healthy behaviors on body mass index, cardiovascular and physical fitness. Methods: The inclusion criteria were adolescents between 8 and 12 years and body mass index (BMI) ≥85th percentile. The data were collected at baseline and week 6 (wk-6) and was analyzed for 2013-2018 using paired-sample t tests. Results: The participants' (N = 179) average age was 10.6 ± 1.6 years with a majority of females (71%) and black race/ethnicity (70%). At wk-6, BMI and waist circumference decreased by 0.8 ± 0.7 kg/m2 and 1.0 ± 1.3 in, respectively. Resting heart rate, diastolic and systolic blood pressure decreased by 8.5 ± 11.0 bpm, 6.3 ± 8.8 mmHg, and 6.4 ± 10.1 mmHg, respectively. The number of pushups, curl-ups, and chair squats were higher by 5.8 ± 7.5, 6.7 ± 9.1, and 7.7 ± 8.5, respectively. Conclusion: The FFSC is efficacious for improving BMI, cardiovascular, and physical fitness in the short term. The effect of similar episodic efforts that implement healthy lifestyle modifications throughout the school year should be investigated

The ORACLE Children Study:Educational outcomes at 11 years of age following antenatal prescription of erythromycin or co-amoxiclav

Background Antibiotics used for women in spontaneous preterm labour without overt infection, in contrast to those with preterm rupture of membranes, are associated with altered functional outcomes in their children. Methods From the National Pupil Database, we used Key Stage 2 scores, national test scores in school year 6 at 11 years of age, to explore the hypothesis that erythromycin and co-amoxiclav were associated with poorer educational outcomes within the ORACLE Children Study. Results Anonymised scores for 97% of surviving children born to mothers recruited to ORACLE and resident in England were analysed against treatment group adjusting for key available socio-demographic potential confounders. No association with crude or with adjusted scores for English, mathematics or science was observed by maternal antibiotic group in either women with preterm rupture of membranes or spontaneous preterm labour with intact membranes. While the proportion receiving special educational needs was similar in each group (range 31.6-34.4%), it was higher than the national rate of 19%. Conclusions Despite evidence that antibiotics are associated with increased functional impairment at 7 years, educational test scores and special needs at 11 years of age show no differences between trial groups. Trial registration number ISCRT Number 52995660 (original ORACLE trial number).</p

Activity of ceftazidime/avibactam against problem Enterobacteriaceae and Pseudomonas aeruginosa in the UK, 2015-2016

Background: Ceftazidime/avibactam combines an established oxyimino-cephalosporin with the first diazabicyclooctane β-lactamase inhibitor to enter clinical use. We reviewed its activity against Gram-negative isolates, predominantly from the UK, referred for resistance investigation in the first year of routine testing, beginning in July 2015. Methods: Isolates were as received from referring laboratories; there is a bias to submit those with suspected carbapenem resistance. Identification was by MALDI-TOF mass spectroscopy, and susceptibility testing by BSAC agar dilution. Carbapenemase genes were sought by PCR; other resistance mechanisms were inferred using genetic data and interpretive reading. Results: Susceptibility rates to ceftazidime/avibactam exceeded 95% for: (i) Enterobacteriaceae with KPC, GES or other Class A carbapenemases; (ii) Enterobacteriaceae with OXA-48-like enzymes; and (iii) for ESBL or AmpC producers, even when these had impermeability-mediated ertapenem resistance. Almost all isolates with metallo-carbapenemases were resistant. Potentiation of ceftazidime by avibactam was seen for 87% of ceftazidime-resistant Enterobacteriaceae with ‘unassigned’ ceftazidime resistance mechanisms, including two widely referred groups of Klebsiella pneumoniae where no synergy was seen between cephalosporins and established β-lactamase inhibitors. Potentiation here may be a diazabicyclooctane/cephalosporin enhancer effect. Activity was seen against Pseudomonas aeruginosa with derepressed AmpC, but not for those with efflux-mediated resistance. Conclusions: Of the available β-lactams or inhibitor combinations, ceftazidime/avibactam has the widest activity spectrum against problem Enterobacteriaceae, covering all major types except metallo-carbapenemase producers; against P. aeruginosa it has a slightly narrower spectrum than ceftolozane/tazobactam, which also covers efflux-type resistance

Carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae in hospital wastewater:a reservoir that may be unrelated to clinical isolates [star]

Summary Background: Carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (CPE) are an emerging infection control problem in hospitals worldwide. Identifying carriers can help reduce potential spread and infections. Aim: To assess whether testing hospital wastewater for CPE can supplement patient based screening for infection prevention purposes in a hospital without a recognised endemic CPE problem. Methods: Wastewater collected from hospital pipework on 16 occasions during February-March 2014 was screened for CPE using chromID®CARBA agar and chromID®CPS agar with a 10 μg ertapenem disc and combination disc testing. MICs were determined using British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy methodology and carbapenemase genes detected by PCR or wholegenome sequencing. Selected isolates were typed by PFGE. Findings: Suspected CPE were recovered from all 16 wastewater samples. Of 17 isolates sent to Antimicrobial Resistance and Healthcare Associated Infections Reference Unit, six (four Citrobacter freundii and two Enterobacter cloacae complex) were New Delhi metallo–beta-lactamase (NDM) producers and the remaining 11 (six Klebsiella oxytoca and five Enterobacter cloacae complex), Guiana-Extended-Spectrum-5 (GES-5) producers, the first to be described in Enterobacteriaceae in the UK. The four NDM-producing C. freundii, two NDM-producing E. cloacae complex and 4/5 GES-5-producing E. cloacae complex were each indistinguishable isolates of the same three strains, whereas the six GES-5-producing K. oxytoca overall shared 79% similarity. Conclusion: CPE are readily isolated from hospital wastewater using simple culture methods. There are either undetected carriers of CPE excreting into the wastewater, or these CPE represent colonisation of the pipework. Surveillance of hospital wastewater for CPE does not appear helpful for infection control purposes