Economic Growth, Corporate Earnings and Equity Returns: Evidence from Central and Eastern European Countries

This paper discusses the links between economic growth, corporate earnings and stock returns. Cross-country correlation studies do not confirm the intuitive assumption that higher returns on equities are more likely in the faster-growing countries. The problem can be analysed more deeply by analysing stock returns with respect to the growth of earnings per share (EPS) and changes in valuation (P/E ratio). Within this framework, two types of factors explaining the lack of correlation between GDP growth and stock returns are distinguished. The empirical research on developed and emerging market countries reveals that in the long run stock price returns are driven by companies’ earnings, and that the lack of correlation between GDP growth and equity returns is almost fully explained by the divergence between GDP growth and EPS growth. In this article the results of an investigation into this area, based on a sample of post-communist Central and Eastern European countries, are presented and discussed. It was found that in these countries changes in valuation (P/E ratio) appear to play an important role, cancelling the impact of EPS growth on stock returns

Output and Expected Returns in Central and Eastern European Countries

Theoretical background: Although some controversy remains, some aspects of the predictability of aggregate stock market returns in the United States and other industrialized countries appear to be relatively well established. Intertemporal asset pricing models based on the paradigm of investor rationality and market efficiency imply that various macro variables describing the state of the economy may forecast future returns on the aggregate stock market.Purpose of the article: The aim of the article is to present the results of a preliminary study which set out to determine whether the ratio of the stock index to the aggregate output in the economy and future rates of return in the aggregate stock markets in Central and Eastern Europe are significantly related to each other over different time horizons.Research methods: Heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation-consistent estimators with a small sample degrees of freedom adjustment were used in regressions to track overlapping data problem and small sample bias.Main findings: The analysis of the key market indices has shown that they explain much of the variation in the long-horizon future cumulative returns, as well as in cumulative excess returns.Theoretical background: Although some controversy remains, some aspects of the predictability of aggregate stock market returns in the United States and other industrialized countries appear to be relatively well established. Intertemporal asset pricing models based on the paradigm of investor rationality and market efficiency imply that various macro variables describing the state of the economy may forecast future returns on the aggregate stock market.Purpose of the article: The aim of the article is to present the results of a preliminary study which set out to determine whether the ratio of the stock index to the aggregate output in the economy and future rates of return in the aggregate stock markets in Central and Eastern Europe are significantly related to each other over different time horizons.Research methods: Heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation-consistent estimators with a small sample degrees of freedom adjustment were used in regressions to track overlapping data problem and small sample bias.Main findings: The analysis of the key market indices has shown that they explain much of the variation in the long-horizon future cumulative returns, as well as in cumulative excess returns

Has the Risk of Socially Responsible Investments (SRI) Companies Stocks Changed in the COVID-19 Period? International Evidence

In this study, we investigate changes in risk of Socially Responsible Investments (SRI) companies in the periods before and during the COVID-19 pandemic relying on a broad dataset covering SRI indices from 35 markets analysed between 2016 and 2021. Our results provide evidence that the systematic risk of the SRI firms, measured by the beta coefficient, increased in most countries around the world during the COVID-19 period. However, some markets in our sample show remarkable resilience and stability in terms of the changes in their risk patterns. In particular, the systematic risk of SRI companies from the markets in East Asia decreased during the COVID-19 pandemic, which contrasts with substantial increases in the systematic risk of the SRI firms from the SRI indices in all other regions around the world

Company growth and growth opportunities on the example of some EU stock exchanges in the light of market characteristics

This paper analyzes the relationship between growth opportunity measures and the future growth of companies. If there is a correlation between a company’s growth potential and its real growth, then the markets are more predictable and effective. The survey was conducted on the example of the following European markets: Austria, the Baltic Countries, Hungary, France, Poland, and Germany. The goal of this paper is to assess the relationship between growth opportunity measures and the future growth of companies listed on the stock exchanges of some markets in the European Union. The countries considered can be classified according to the size of the state, market liquidity, and the maturity of the exchange. Those external factors were expected to influence the strength of the growth and its opportunity relationship. It was found that growth opportunity measures based on market prices have predicting power for the future growth of companies. They are also strongly related to companies’ future growth in large countries and weakly related to future growth in small countries. This paper adds to the literature on the application of growth opportunity measures regarding market characteristics. These results are in line with the view that market liquidity should increase its efficiency in revealing the value of stocks and the Comprehensive Advantage of Large Countries hypothesis

Dynamic Interactions Between Stock Returns, Domestic Product and Interest Rates: Evidence from Poland

The paper investigates the relationships between stock returns (represented by changes in the main stock index quoted on Warsaw Stock Exchange, WIG) and changes in Gross Domestic Product, as well as changes in long‑term and short‑term interest rates in Poland over the years 2001–2016. Quarterly data is examined applying time series econometric methods, allowing to take into account the existence of autocorrelation. The results suggest that stock returns lead and can forecast future economic growth. They also point to statistically significant but rather moderate inverse relationship between stock returns and current movements in interest rates, mainly long‑term. These results are consistent with the theoretical arguments in finance and economics.W artykule przedstawiono wyniki badania współzależności między zmianami głównego indeksu warszawskiej giełdy (WIG) a zmianami produktu krajowego brutto oraz długo‑ i krótkookresowych stóp procentowych w Polsce w latach 2001–2016. Analizę przeprowadzono na danych o kwartalnej częstotliwości, z użyciem metod z zakresu ekonometrii szeregów czasowych, pozwalających na uwzględnienie istnienia autokorelacji w szeregach badanych zmiennych. Wyniki badania sugerują, że stopy zwrotu z akcji sygnalizują z wyprzedzeniem dwóch kwartałów zmiany poziomu aktywności gospodarczej. Jednoczenie wyniki te wskazują na statystycznie istotne, stosunkowo słabe, negatywne powiązanie stóp wzrostu WIG z równoczesnymi zmianami stóp procentowych, przede wszystkim długookresowych. Rezultaty te pozostają zgodne z przytaczanymi argumentami teoretycznymi z obszaru finansów i ekonomii

REMARKS ON THE “GOLDEN RULE” OF ACCUMULATION OF REAL AND HUMAN CAPITAL IN THE CONTEXT OF SOCIAL WELFARE MAXIMISATION

The subject of the paper is social welfare maximisation in a neoclassical model of economic growth, extended by the accumulation of human capital. After introducing the model and characterising the behaviour of the economic system on the so-called balanced growth path, Phelps’ “golden rule of accumulation” is used to establish the values of the rates of investments (into real and human capital) maximising the level o f the long-term growth path of per capita consumption. At the same time the analytical limitations o f this conception in the context of the welfare maximisation is shown. Overcoming those limitations necessitates a direct reference to the preferences of individual economic agents over (per capita) consumption streams. Realisation of this demand finds its formal expression in formulating and solving a dynamic optimisation problem, based on the initial growth model. Finally, this procedure serves to find the specific character o f preferences of individual agents, in the light of which the values of investment rates resulting from Phelps’ rule are the optimal values (on the balanced growth path), for the achievement of which, according to the model, the economy should strive

Prognozowalność stóp zwrotu z akcji w krajach Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej

Stock return predictability in highly developed countries has both empirical and theoretical justification in financial literature. The article aims to answer the question if market valuation ratios that relate share prices to various accounting quantities have any predictive power for long‑term stock index returns on investments in capital markets of some Central and Eastern European countries, namely the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Russia. Heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation‑consistent estimators with a small‑sample degrees of freedom adjustment were used in regressions to track the overlapping data problem and small sample bias. The results of an investigation show that some of these ratios, such as price to a ten‑year moving average of real earnings, commonly known as the cyclically adjusted price earnings (CAPE) ratio, price to estimated profits, market to book value and price to sales revenues have a strong predictive power for cumulative returns mainly over long horizons. On the other hand, price to one‑year earnings, dividend yield or price to cash flow ratios prove to be quite poor predictors. Following the arguments of behavioural finance, we conclude that the evidence obtained in the study proving a fairly significant link between current values of market ratios and future cumulative returns indicates a certain degree of ineffectiveness of the analysed markets during the examined period.Prognozowalność zwrotu z akcji w krajach wysoko rozwiniętych ma uzasadnienie zarówno empiryczne, jak i teoretyczne w literaturze z zakresu finansów. Celem artykułu jest uzyskanie odpowiedzi na pytanie, czy wskaźniki wyceny rynkowej, które odnoszą wartości indeksów giełdowych do różnych wielkości księgowych, wykazują się zdolnością prognostyczną w stosunku do przyszłych długookresowych zwrotów z tych indeksów na rynkach kapitałowych w kilku krajach Europy Środkowo‑Wschodniej: w Czechach, na Węgrzech, w Polsce i w Rosji. Badanie zostało przeprowadzone według standardowej metodologii z wykorzystaniem analizy regresji liniowej. Ze względu na problem nakładających się okresów (overlapping periods) oraz obciążenia dla małych prób w regresjach posłużono się zgodnymi estymatorami heteroskedastyczności i autokorelacji z korektą stopni swobody dla małych prób. Wyniki przeprowadzonego badania dowodzą, że niektóre z tych wskaźników, takie jak stosunek indeksu do dziesięcioletniej średniej ruchomej realnych zysków spółek, powszechnie znany jako wskaźnik ceny do zysków skorygowanych cyklicznie (cyclically adjusted price/earnings – CAPE), wskaźnik ceny do prognozowanych zysków, wartość rynkowa do wartości księgowej oraz cena do przychodów ze sprzedaży, mają silną moc predykcyjną dla skumulowanych zwrotów głównie w długich horyzontach czasowych. Z drugiej strony stosunek ceny do rocznych zysków, stopa dywidendy lub cena do przepływów pieniężnych okazują się dość słabymi predyktorami przyszłych zwrotów. Podążając za argumentami z obszaru finansów behawioralnych, wnioskować można, że uzyskane w badaniu dowody świadczące o dość istotnym powiązaniu bieżących wartości wskaźników rynkowych z przyszłymi skumulowanymi stopami zwrotu wskazują na pewien stopień nieefektywności analizowanych rynków w badanym okresie

Badanie współzależności pomiędzy rynkiem akcji a poziomem aktywności gospodarczej w Polsce z wykorzystaniem metodologii VAR‑VECM

The paper discusses the links between stock market performance and real economic activity and presents results of an empirical inquiry into dynamic relationships between the main stock index quoted on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WIG) and GDP in Poland over the years 1995–2019. In many empirical studies for highly developed countries not only short‑run dynamic interactions but also a long‑run cointegrating relationship between the stock index and output have been found. Previous studies for Poland reported mainly short‑run linkages between stock returns and changes of economic activity whereas the evidence for a long‑run cointegrating relationship is still quite scarce. In this paper, the VAR‑VECM methodology with the Johansen tests for cointegration is used to study a substantially longer quarterly data interval than has been investigated so far. Research results show that stock returns Granger‑cause GDP growth with up to three‑quarters lead. The evidence for the existence of a long‑term cointegrating relationship has also been found.W artykule omówiono związki pomiędzy koniunkturą giełdową a realną aktywnością gospodarczą oraz przedstawiono wyniki badania współzależności pomiędzy zmianami głównego indeksu akcji na GPW w Warszawie (WIG) oraz PKB w Polsce w latach 1995–2019. W wielu studiach empirycznych dla krajów wysoko rozwiniętych wykazano istnienie nie tylko dynamicznych interakcji krótkookresowych, ale również długoterminowej relacji kointegrującej pomiędzy poziomami indeksu i produktu. Dotychczasowe badania dla Polski wskazywały głównie na związki krótkookresowe pomiędzy stopami zwrotu z akcji a zmianami aktywności gospodarczej, podczas gdy dowody na istnienie długookresowej relacji kointegrującej są jak dotąd nieliczne. W artykule zastosowano metodologię VAR‑VECM oraz procedurę Johansena do badania kointegracji dla znacznie dłuższego szeregu danych kwartalnych niż w prowadzonych do tej pory badaniach. Badanie wykazało, że stopy zwrotu z akcji są przyczyną w sensie Grangera dla zmian PKB, przy czym wyprzedzenie w czasie sięga do trzech kwartałów. Znaleziono również dowody na istnienie długoterminowej relacji kointegrującej

ANALYSIS OF THE POSSIBILITY OF GOVERNMENT INFLUENCE ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE CONTEXT OF THE MAXIMALISATION OF WELFARE

The subject of this paper is an analysis of the possibility of a government to influence the economic growth through a fiscal policy, in the extended framework o f a neoclassical model of economic growth (with the accumulation of human capital). This model implies no relation between social rates of investments in real and human capital and a long-term growth rate. It limits the possibility of potential stimulating of the rate of growth by economic authorities only to the transitory period, during which the economy moves from one balanced growth path to another. However, since the positive influence of the accelerated accumulation of capital on the level of the long-term growth path of the per capita product does not have to entail the increase of social welfare (measured by the level of social per capita consumption), we raise a question about the optimal structure of budget expenses in the division into public investments in real and human capital and consumption, corresponding to a given structure of private sector expenses. Next we reject the assumption about the exogenously given structure of expenses of private agents which means, inter alia, the absence of reaction of these agents to changes in the fiscal policy of the government. The endogenous derivation of the division of private incomes for investments and consumption from explicitly described preferences of agents over (per capita) consumption streams may lead to the conclusion suggesting total neutrality of the fiscal policy with regards to its influence on economic growth. At the last stage of the analysis we demonstrate that this conclusion is becoming relativised, depending on the extent to which private agents take into account the level of public consumption in their optimising decisions