Markov-Switching MIDAS Models

This paper introduces a new regression model - Markov-switching mixed data sampling (MS-MIDAS) - that incorporates regime changes in the parameters of the mixed data sampling (MIDAS) models and allows for the use of mixed-frequency data in Markov-switching models. After a discussion of estimation and inference for MS-MIDAS, and a small sample simulation based evaluation, the MS-MIDAS model is applied to the prediction of the US and UK economic activity, in terms both of quantitative forecasts of the aggregate economic activity and of the prediction of the business cycle regimes. Both simulation and empirical results indicate that MSMIDAS is a very useful specification.Business cycle, Mixed-frequency data, Non-linear models, Forecasting, Nowcasting

Graphene in silicon photovoltaic cells

Graphene is an allotrope of carbon. Its structure is one-atom-thick planar sheets of carbon atoms that are densely packed in a honeycomb crystal lattice [1]. The richness of optical and electronic properties of graphene attracts enormous interest. Its true potential seems to be in photonics and optoelectronics, where the combination of its unique optical and electronic properties can be fully exploited. The optical absorption of graphene layers is proportional to the number of layers, each absorbing A=1-T=πα=2.3% over the visible spectrum [2].The rise of graphene in photonics and optoelectronics is shown by several recent results, ranging from solar cells and light emitting devices, to touch screens, photodetectors and ultrafast lasers. Current photovoltaic (PV) technology is dominated by Si cells, with an energy conversion coefficient up to 25% [3]. Such an inorganic PV consists in a current transparent conductor (TC) replacing one of the electrodes of a PIN photodiode. The standard material used so far for these electrodes is indium-tinoxide, or ITO. But indium is expensive and relatively rare, so the search has been on for a suitable replacement. A possible substitute made from inexpensive and ubiquitous carbon is graphene. Being only constituted of carbon, it will become cheap and easily recyclable. But at the moment, the major difficulty consists in its fabrication and/or transfer. Our project consists in synthetizing graphene by CVD (Chemical Vapor Deposition) on Cu and in transferring the obtained layer on silicon PV cells, and then in testing their energy conversion efficiency

A comparison of monthly global indicators for forecasting growth

This paper evaluates the predictive content of a set of alternative monthly indicators of global economic activity for nowcasting and forecasting quarterly world real GDP growth using mixed-frequency models. It shows that a recently proposed indicator that covers multiple dimensions of the global economy consistently produces substantial improvements in forecasting accuracy, while other monthly measures have more mixed success. Specifically, the best-performing model yields impressive gains with MSPE reductions of up to 34% at short horizons and up to 13% at long horizons relative to an autoregressive benchmark. The global economic conditions indicator also contains valuable information for assessing the current and future state of the economy for a set of individual countries and groups of countries. This indicator is used to track the evolution of the nowcasts for the U.S., the OECD area, and the world economy during the COVID-19 pandemic and the main factors that drive the nowcasts are quantified.http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast2022-04-08hj2021Economic

Small Cages with Insect Couples Provide a Simple Method for a Preliminary Assessment of Mating Disruption

Mating disruption by sex pheromones is a sustainable, effective and widely used pest management scheme. A drawback of this technique is its challenging assessment of effectiveness in the field (e.g., spatial scale, pest density). The aim of this work was to facilitate the evaluation of field-deployed pheromone dispensers. We tested the suitability of small insect field cages for a pre-evaluation of the impact of sex pheromones on mating using the grape moths Eupoecilia ambiguella and Lobesia botrana, two major pests in vineyards. Cages consisted of a cubic metal frame of 35 cm sides, which was covered with a mosquito net of 1500 μm mesh size. Cages were installed in the centre of pheromone-treated and untreated vineyards. In several trials, 1 to 20 couples of grape moths per cage were released for one to three nights. The proportion of mated females was between 15 to 70% lower in pheromone-treated compared to untreated vineyards. Overall, the exposure of eight couples for one night was adequate for comparing different control schemes. Small cages may therefore provide a fast and cheap method to compare the effectiveness of pheromone dispensers under standardised semi-field conditions and may help predict the value of setting-up large-scale field trials

ENTRE SYLVICULTURE ET PATURAGE DANS LES ESPACES BOISES DE LA ZONE MEDITERRANEENNE FRANÇAISE L'INNOVATION SYLVOPASTORALE EN QUESTIONS

N° ISBN - 978-2-7380-1284-5International audienceIn northern Mediterranean regions, livestock farming and silviculture evolutions have them sometimes gathered sometimes separated. The marginalization of little productive and costly to exploit Mediterranean forests and the economic and climatic difficulties faced by livestock sector in these regions calls for a fresh examination of silvopastoralism. In woodlands, fodder production is staggered over the year and its herbaceous component is preserved longer thanks to the shadow of trees. So it makes for example a summer pastoral resource. The selective cutting of trees generates wood products which may be sold, besides conventional outlets such as triturating and firewood, through new marketing channels such as wood energy or construction. Grazing keeps underbrush under control and facilitates later silviculture operations. Reciprocally, silviculture operations increase the quantity of light reaching undergrowth and thereby favours the development of forage resources : grass growth, lower hanging foliage, increase in percent fruit set. They also facilitate animal circulation. The construction of this productive consistency asks several questions, at different scales, which the paper tries to answer offering : (i) a silvopastoral interpretation of wooded environments ; (ii) a characterization of trees partial taking ; (iii) a characterization of wooded areas pastoral uses ; (iv) a different levels of silvopastoral project consistency analysis

Global determinants of freshwater and marine fish genetic diversity

Genetic diversity is estimated to be declining faster than species diversity under escalating threats, but its spatial distribution remains poorly documented at the global scale. Theory predicts that similar processes should foster congruent spatial patterns of genetic and species diversity, but empirical studies are scarce. Using a mined database of 50,588 georeferenced mitochondrial DNA barcode sequences (COI) for 3,815 marine and 1,611 freshwater fish species respectively, we examined the correlation between genetic diversity and species diversity and their global distributions in relation to climate and geography. Genetic diversity showed a clear spatial organisation, but a weak association with species diversity for both marine and freshwater species. We found a predominantly positive relationship between genetic diversity and sea surface temperature for marine species. Genetic diversity of freshwater species varied primarily across the regional basins and was negatively correlated with average river slope. The detection of genetic diversity patterns suggests that conservation measures should consider mismatching spatial signals across multiple facets of biodiversity

Combined spectroscopy and intensity interferometry to determine the distances of the blue supergiants P Cygni and Rigel

In this paper, we report on the spatial intensity interferometry measurements within the H$\alpha$ line on two stars: the Luminous Blue Variable (LBV) supergiant \PCygni\,and the late-type B supergiant Rigel. The experimental setup has been upgraded to allow simultaneous measurement of two polarization channels and the zero baseline correlation function. Combined with simultaneous spectra measurements and based on radiative transfer models calculated with the code CMFGEN, we were able to fit our measured visibility curves to extract the stellar distances. Our distance determinations for both \PCygni\ (1.61 $\pm$ 0.18 kpc) and Rigel (0.26 $\pm$ 0.02 kpc) agree very well with the values provided by astrometry with the Gaia and Hipparcos missions, respectively. This is the first successful step towards extending the application of the Wind Momentum Luminosity Relation method for distance calibration from an LBV supergiant to a more normal late-type B supergiant

Overview of grapevine trunk diseases in France in the 2000s

The National Grapevine Trunk Disease Survey was conducted in France from 2003 to 2008 to monitor grapevine trunk diseases (GTDs), eutypa dieback and esca/black dead arm (BDA). Data collected from seven regions, 329 vineyards and 12 cultivars were analysed. There were great variations amongst regions in the incidence of GTDs. For esca/BDA, two groups were distinguished: vineyards in Jura and Charentes had greater incidence (93–95%) than those of Bordeaux, Alsace and Bourgogne (54–82%). Incidence increased in Charentes over the 6-year survey, with the highest values being recorded during the last 2 years. For eutypa dieback, all vineyards of Charentes were affected, with 17 to 25% of vines expressing symptoms; for the other regions, 52 to 80% of vineyards were affected, with incidences below 3%. Cultivars Savagnin and Trousseau in Jura were especially affected by esca/BDA. Instead, Ugni Blanc in Charentes was most affected by eutypa dieback. One cultivar could be significantly more affected in one region than in another. The global health status of the vineyards was also investigated. (i) For four regions, 82% (Jura) to 87% (Alsace) of the grapevines were healthy, but this percentage decreased steadily (67%) in Charentes. (ii) Plants infected by GTDs were 32 and 18% in Jura and Charentes respectively, and only 2.9% in the Bourgogne region. (iii) The unproductive plants, i.e. dead, missing, replanted or restored, represented a significant part of the losses (6.6% in Charentes to 9.9% in Jura). The extension of GTDs is discussed with regard to the abiotic and biotic factors that may favour the diseases