The U.S. National Climate Change Assessment: Do the Climate Models Project a Useful Picture of Regional Climate?

9 pages. Includes illustrations Dr. Roger A. Pielke, Sr., President of the American Association of State Climatologists, Colorado State Climatologist and Professor, Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University From testimony presented to the House Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, July 25, 2002, and published in Colorado Water, April 2003, 15-19

The U.S. National Climate Change Assessment: Do the Climate Models Project a Useful Picture of Regional Climate?

9 pages. Includes illustrations Dr. Roger A. Pielke, Sr., President of the American Association of State Climatologists, Colorado State Climatologist and Professor, Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University From testimony presented to the House Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, July 25, 2002, and published in Colorado Water, April 2003, 15-19

Roles of atmospheric and land surface data in dynamic regional downscaling

In studies dealing with the impact of land use changes on atmospheric processes, a key methodological step is the validation of simulated current conditions. However, regions lacking detailed atmospheric and land use data provide limited information with which to accurately generate control simulations. In this situation, the difference between baseline control simulations and different land use change simulations can be quite different owing to the quality of the atmospheric and land use data sets. Using multiple simulations at the Monteverde cloud forest region of Costa Rica as an example, we show that when a regional climate model is used to study the effect of land use change, it can produce distinctly different results at regional scales, depending on the amount of data available to run the climate simulations. We show that for the specific case of land use change impact studies, the simulation results are very sensitive to the prescribed atmospheric information (e.g., lateral boundary conditions) compared to the land use (surface boundary) information

Modeling the Dynamics of Long-Term Variability of Hydroclimatic Processes

The stochastic analysis, modeling, and simulation of climatic and hydrologic processes such as precipitation, streamflow, and sea surface temperature have usually been based on assumed stationarity or randomness of the process under consideration. However, empirical evidence of many hydroclimatic data shows temporal variability involving trends, oscillatory behavior, and sudden shifts. While many studies have been made for detecting and testing the statistical significance of these special characteristics, the probabilistic framework for modeling the temporal dynamics of such processes appears to be lacking. In this paper a family of stochastic models that can be used to capture the dynamics of abrupt shifts in hydroclimatic time series is proposed. The applicability of such ‘‘shifting mean models’ ’ are illustrated by using time series data of annual Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) indices and annual streamflows of the Niger River. 1

Impact of Irrigation on Midsummer Surface Fluxes and Temperature under Dry Synoptic Conditions: A Regional Atmospheric Model Study of the U.S. High Plains

The impact of irrigation on the surface energy budget in the U.S. high plains is investigated. Four 15-day simulations were conducted: one using a 1997 satellite-derived estimate of farmland acreage under irrigation in Nebraska (control run), two using the Olson Global Ecosystem (OGE) vegetation dataset (OGE wet run and OGE dry run), and the fourth with the Kuchler vegetation dataset (natural vegetation run) as lower boundary conditions in the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). In the control and OGE wet simulations, the topsoil in the irrigated locations, up to a depth of 0.2 m, was saturated at 0000 UTC each day for the duration of the experiment (1–15 July 1997). In the other two runs, the soil was allowed to dry out, except when replenished naturally by rainfall. Identical observed atmospheric conditions were used along the lateral boundary in all four cases. The area-averaged model-derived quantities for the grid centered over Nebraska indicate significant differences in the surface energy fluxes between the control (irrigated) and the ‘‘dry’’ simulations. For example, a 36% increase in the surface latent heat flux and a 2.68C elevation in dewpoint temperature between the control run and the OGE dry run is shown. Surface sensible heat flux of the control run was 15% less and the near-ground temperature was 1.28C less compared to the OGE dry run. The differences between the control run and the natural vegetation run were similar but amplified compared to the control run–OGE dry run comparisons. Results of statistical analyses of long-term(1921–2000) surface temperature data from two sites representing locations of extensive irrigated and nonirrigated land uses appear to support model results presented herein of an irrigationrelated cooling in surface temperature. Growing season monthly mean and monthly mean maximum temperature data for the irrigated site indicate a steady decreasing trend in contrast to an increasing trend at the nonirrigated site

Changes in moisture and energy fluxes due to agricultural land use and irrigation in the Indian Monsoon Belt

We present a conceptual synthesis of the impact that agricultural activity in India can have on land-atmosphere interactions through irrigation. We illustrate a “bottom up” approach to evaluate the effects of land use change on both physical processes and human vulnerability. We compared vapor fluxes (estimated evaporation and transpiration) from a pre-agricultural and a contemporary land cover and found that mean annual vapor fluxes have increased by 17% (340 km3) with a 7% increase (117 km3) in the wet season and a 55% increase (223 km3) in the dry season. Two thirds of this increase was attributed to irrigation, with groundwater-based irrigation contributing 14% and 35% of the vapor fluxes in the wet and dry seasons, respectively. The area averaged change in latent heat flux across India was estimated to be 9 Wm−2. The largest increases occurred where both cropland and irrigated lands were the predominant contemporary land uses

Impact of Irrigation on Midsummer Surface Fluxes and Temperature under Dry Synoptic Conditions: A Regional Atmospheric Model Study of the U.S. High Plains

The impact of irrigation on the surface energy budget in the U.S. high plains is investigated. Four 15-day simulations were conducted: one using a 1997 satellite-derived estimate of farmland acreage under irrigation in Nebraska (control run), two using the Olson Global Ecosystem (OGE) vegetation dataset (OGE wet run and OGE dry run), and the fourth with the Kuchler vegetation dataset (natural vegetation run) as lower boundary conditions in the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). In the control and OGE wet simulations, the topsoil in the irrigated locations, up to a depth of 0.2 m, was saturated at 0000 UTC each day for the duration of the experiment (1–15 July 1997). In the other two runs, the soil was allowed to dry out, except when replenished naturally by rainfall. Identical observed atmospheric conditions were used along the lateral boundary in all four cases. The area-averaged model-derived quantities for the grid centered over Nebraska indicate significant differences in the surface energy fluxes between the control (irrigated) and the ‘‘dry’’ simulations. For example, a 36% increase in the surface latent heat flux and a 2.68C elevation in dewpoint temperature between the control run and the OGE dry run is shown. Surface sensible heat flux of the control run was 15% less and the near-ground temperature was 1.28C less compared to the OGE dry run. The differences between the control run and the natural vegetation run were similar but amplified compared to the control run–OGE dry run comparisons. Results of statistical analyses of long-term(1921–2000) surface temperature data from two sites representing locations of extensive irrigated and nonirrigated land uses appear to support model results presented herein of an irrigationrelated cooling in surface temperature. Growing season monthly mean and monthly mean maximum temperature data for the irrigated site indicate a steady decreasing trend in contrast to an increasing trend at the nonirrigated site