Understanding Relationships Among Abundance, Extirpation, and Climate at Ecoregional Scales

Recent research on mountain-dwelling species has illustrated changes in species\u27 distributional patterns in response to climate change. Abundance of a species will likely provide an earlier warning indicator of change than will occupancy, yet relationships between abundance and climatic factors have received less attention. We tested whether predictors of counts of American pikas (Ochotona princeps) during surveys from the Great Basin region in 1994-1999 and 2003-2008 differed between the two periods. Additionally, we tested whether various modeled aspects of ecohydrology better predicted relative density than did average annual precipitation, and whether risk of site-wide extirpation predicted subsequent population counts of pikas. We observed several patterns of change in pika abundance at range edges that likely constitute early warnings of distributional shifts. Predictors of pika abundance differed strongly between the survey periods, as did pika extirpation patterns previously reported from this region. Additionally, maximum snowpack and growing-season precipitation resulted in better-supported models than those using average annual precipitation, and constituted two of the top three predictors of pika density in the 2000s surveys (affecting pikas perhaps via vegetation). Unexpectedly, we found that extirpation risk positively predicted subsequent population size. Our results emphasize the need to clarify mechanisms underlying biotic responses to recent climate change at organism-relevant scales, to inform management and conservation strategies for species of concern

Exposure of U.S. National Parks to land use and climate change 1900-2100

Many protected areas may not be adequately safeguarding biodiversity from human activities on surrounding lands and global change. The magnitude of such change agents and the sensitivity of ecosystems to these agents vary among protected areas. Thus, there is a need to assess vulnerability across networks of protected areas to determine those most at risk and to lay the basis for developing effective adaptation strategies. We conducted an assessment of exposure of U.S. National Parks to climate and land use change and consequences for vegetation communities. We first defined park protected-area centered ecosystems (PACEs) based on ecological principles. We then drew on existing land use, invasive species, climate, and biome data sets and models to quantify exposure of PACEs from 1900 through 2100. Most PACEs experienced substantial change over the 20th century (.740% average increase in housing density since 1940, 13% of vascular plants are presently nonnative, temperature increase of 18C/100 yr since 1895 in 80% of PACEs), and projections suggest that many of these trends will continue at similar or increasingly greater rates (255% increase in housing density by 2100, temperature increase of 2.58–4.58C/100 yr, 30% of PACE areas may lose their current biomes by 2030). In the coming century, housing densities are projected to increase in PACEs at about 82% of the rate of since 1940. The rate of climate warming in the coming century is projected to be 2.5–5.8 times higher than that measured in the past century. Underlying these averages, exposure of individual park PACEs to change agents differ in important ways. For example, parks such as Great Smoky Mountains exhibit high land use and low climate exposure, others such as Great Sand Dunes exhibit low land use and high climate exposure, and a few such as Point Reyes exhibit high exposure on both axes. The cumulative and synergistic effects of such changes in land use, invasives, and climate are expected to dramatically impact ecosystem function and biodiversity in national parks. These results are foundational to developing effective adaptation strategies and suggest policies to better safeguard parks under broad-scale environmental change

Índices para avaliar o estado de nitrogênio da batata multiplicada por distintos materiais propagativos

Melhoria na eficiência de aplicação do N pode ser conseguida pela sincronização da demanda da planta com o suprimento de N durante o ciclo da batateira. O objetivo do trabalho foi determinar os valores ótimos de índices relacionados com o estado de nitrogênio ao longo do ciclo da batata cultivada em ambiente protegido, utilizando distintos materiais propagativos, tubérculo-semente, minitubérculo e broto, comuns na produção de tubérculo-semente básica. Os índices, determinados na quarta folha e na mais velha, foram intensidade da cor verde, avaliada pelo índice SPAD e pela tabela de cor, e características agronômicas: comprimento, largura, área e número de folíolos. Foram realizados três experimentos em vaso, em casa de vegetação na Universidade Federal de Viçosa. Em cada experimento, instalado no delineamento de blocos ao acaso, com quatro repetições, foram utilizadas seis doses de nitrogênio (0; 25; 50; 100; 200 e 400 mg dm-3). Os índices foram determinados a cada 10 dias iniciando-se aos 20 dias após a emergência. Com cada material de propagação, o índice SPAD medido tanto na QF quanto na FV respondeu de forma diferenciada ao incremento na dose de N e atingiu os valores ótimos de 41,3; 40,5; 37,0; 35,8; 36,0; 31,9 e 29,8 dos 20 aos 80 DAE, respectivamente, ao ser utilizado o tubérculo-semente básica. Com todos os materiais de propagação, a idade da planta influencia significativamente todas as variáveis, exceto o número de hastes ou o número de folhas, quando é utilizado broto ou minitubérculo, respectivamente. O valor ótimo dos índices relacionados com a intensidade da cor das folhas e das características agronômicas da planta foram estabelecidos e variam com o material de propagação e idade da planta de batata