Impact of multiple radar reflectivity data assimilation on the numerical simulation of a flash flood event during the HyMeX campaign

An analysis to evaluate the impact of multiple radar reflectivity data with a three-dimensional variational (3-D-Var) assimilation system on a heavy precipitation event is presented. The main goal is to build a regionally tuned numerical prediction model and a decision-support system for environmental civil protection services and demonstrate it in the central Italian regions, distinguishing which type of observations, conventional and not (or a combination of them), is more effective in improving the accuracy of the forecasted rainfall. In that respect, during the first special observation period (SOP1) of HyMeX (Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment) campaign several intensive observing periods (IOPs) were launched and nine of which occurred in Italy. Among them, IOP4 is chosen for this study because of its low predictability regarding the exact location and amount of precipitation. This event hit central Italy on 14 September 2012 producing heavy precipitation and causing several cases of damage to buildings, infrastructure, and roads. Reflectivity data taken from three C-band Doppler radars running operationally during the event are assimilated using the 3-D-Var technique to improve high-resolution initial conditions. In order to evaluate the impact of the assimilation procedure at different horizontal resolutions and to assess the impact of assimilating reflectivity data from multiple radars, several experiments using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are performed. Finally, traditional verification scores such as accuracy, equitable threat score, false alarm ratio, and frequency bias - interpreted by analysing their uncertainty through bootstrap confidence intervals (CIs) - are used to objectively compare the experiments, using rain gauge data as a benchmark

Correction of Polarimetric Radar Reflectivity Measurements and Rainfall Estimates for Apparent Vertical Profile in Stratiform Rain

AbstractA method for correcting the vertical profile of reflectivity measurements and rainfall estimates (VPR) in plan position indicator (PPI) scans of polarimetric weather radars in the melting layer and the snow layer during stratiform rain is presented. The method for the detection of the boundaries of the melting layer is based on the well-established characteristic of local minimum of copolar correlation coefficient in the melting layer. This method is applied to PPI scans instead of a beam-by-beam basis with the addition of new acceptance criteria adapted to the radar used in this study. An apparent vertical profile of reflectivity measurements, or rainfall estimate, is calculated by averaging the range profiles from all of the available azimuth directions in each PPI scan. The height of each profile is properly scaled with melting-layer boundaries, and the reflectivity, or rainfall estimate, is normalized with respect to its value at the lower boundary of the melting layer. This approach allows variations of the melting-layer boundaries in space and time and variations of the shape of the apparent VPR in time. The application of the VPR correction to reflectivity and rainfall estimates from a reflectivity–rainfall algorithm and a polarimetric algorithm showed that this VPR correction method effectively removes the bias that is due to the brightband effect in PPI scans. It performs also satisfactorily in the snow region, removing the decrease of the observed VPR with range but with an overestimation by 2 dB or more. This method does not require a tuning using climatological data, and it can be applied on any algorithm for rainfall estimation

The HyMeX Special Observation Period in Central Italy: Precipitation Measurements, Retrieval Techniques and Preliminary Results

The Mediterranean area concentrates the major natural risks related to the water cycle, including heavy precipitation and flash-flooding during the fall season. The capability to predict such high-impact events remains weak because of the contribution of very fine-scale processes and their non-linear interactions with the larger scale processes. These societal and science issues motivate the HyMeX (Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment, http://www.hymex.orgl) experimental programme. HyMeX aims at a better quantification and understanding of the water cycle in the Mediterranean with emphasis on intense events. The observation strategy of HyMEX is organized in a long-term (4 years) Enhanced Observation Periods (EOP) and short-term (2 months) Special Observation Periods (SOP). HyMEX has identified 3 main Mediterranean target areas: North-West (NW), Adriatic (A) and South-East (SE). Within each target area several hydrometeorological sites for heavy rainfall and flash flooding have been set up. The hydrometeorological sire in Central Italy (CI) is interested by both western and eastern fronts coming from the Atlantic Ocean and Siberia, respectively. Orographic precipitations play an important role due to the central Apennine range, which reaches nearly 3000 m (Gran Sasso peak). Moreover, convective systems commonly develop in CI during late summer and beginning of autumn, often causing localized hailstorms with cluster organized cells. Western fronts may heavily hit the Tiber basin crossing large urban areas (Rome), whereas eastern fronts can cause flash floods along the Adriatic coastline. Two major basins are involved within Cl region: Tiber basin (1000 km long) and its tributary Aniene and the Aterno-Pescara basin (300 km long). The first HyMeX SOP1.1 was carried out from Sept. till Nov. 2012 in the NW target area The Italian SOP1.1 was coordinated by the Centre of Excellence CETEMPS, University of L'Aquila, a city located in the CI heart. The CI area was covered by a uniquely dense meteorological instrumentation thanks to a synergy between Italian institutions and NASA-GSFC. The following RADARs were operated: a Doppler single-polarization C-band radar located at Mt Midia; the Polar 55C Doppler dual-polarization C-band radar located in Rome; a Doppler C-hand polarimetric radar located at Il Monte (Abnazo); a polarimetric X-band mini-radar in L' Aquila; a polarimetric X-hand portable mini-radar in Rome; a single-polarization X-band mini-radar in Rome. DISDROMETERs were also deployed: 4 Parsivel optical disdrometers in Rome (at Sapienza, CNR-ISAC and CNR-INSEAN); 1 2D-video disdrometer in Rome; 3 Parsivels optical disdrometer respectively in L'Aquila (Abnazo), Avezzano (Abruzzo) and Pescara (Abnazo). Other INSTRUMENTS were available: 1 K-band vertically-pointing micro rain-radar (MRR), 2 Pludix X-band disdrometers, 1 VLF lightning sensor, 1 microwave radiometer at 23-31 GHz in Rome (at Sapienza); the raingauge network with more than 200 stations in Central Italy. Three overpasses in CI were also performed by the Falcon 20 aircraft equipped with the 950Hz cloud radar RASTA Analysis of the SOP1.1 main events in CI will be described by focusing on the raindrop size distribution statistics and its geographical variability. Intercomparison of rainfall estimates from disdrometers, raingauges and radars will be illustrated with the aim to provide a quality-controlled and physically consistent rainfall dataset for meteorological modeling validation and assimilation purposes

Spatially-Adaptive Advection Radar Technique for Precipitation Mosaic Nowcasting

A new numerical nowcasting technique to predict the radar reflectivity field at very short term, up to few hours, is presented. The method is based on the spatial segmentation of the reflectivity field and estimated advection field to produce radar reflectivity forecasts and, for this reason, is named Spatially-adaptive Precipitation Advective Radar Estimator (SPARE). A large data set coming from the Italian radar network mosaic (spatial domain size of about 1200 x 1200 km(2)) is used to test the overall performance of SPARE against the simplest method of radar map temporal persistence. An original approach to estimate the radar field motion, based on the phase cross-correlation principle, is formulated in this paper. Results are given either in terms of skill scores of predicted radar maps or in terms of predicted uncertainty. The latter provides a new methodology to evaluate the expected performance of SPARE predictions

Synthetic Signatures of Volcanic Ash Cloud Particles From X-Band Dual-Polarization Radar

Weather radar retrieval, in terms of detection, estimation, and sensitivity, of volcanic ash plumes is dependent not only on the radar system specifications but also on the range and ash cloud distribution. The minimum detectable signal can be increased, for a given radar and ash plume scenario, by decreasing the observation range and increasing the operational frequency and also by exploiting possible polarimetric capabilities. For short- range observations in proximity of the volcano vent, a compact portable system with relatively low power transmitter may be evaluated as a suitable compromise between observational and technological requirements. This paper, starting from the results of a previous study and from the aforementioned issues, is aimed at quantitatively assessing the optimal choices for a portable X-band system with a dual-polarization capability for real-time ash cloud remote sensing. The physical-electromagnetic model of ash particle distributions is systematically reviewed and extended to include nonspherical particle shapes, vesicular composition, silicate content, and orientation phenomena. The radar backscattering response at X-band is simulated and analyzed in terms of self-consistent polarimetric signatures for ash classification purposes and correlation with ash concentration for quantitative retrieval aims. An X-band radar system sensitivity analysis to ash concentration, as a function of radar specifications, range, and ash category, is carried out in trying to assess the expected system performances and limitations

X-BAND WEATHER RADAR MONITORING OF PRECIPITATION FIELDS IN NAPLES URBAN AREAS: DATA QUALITY, COMPARISON AND ANALYSIS

Rain gauges are considered a traditional method for measuring rainfall. They are simpler than weather radar in terms of management, but they can only provide point measurements and offer limited information on spatial rainfall variability (e.g., Borga and Tonelli, 2002; Steiner et al., 2009). To capture the spatial variability of storms over relatively large areas, weather radars are needed (Battan, 1973; Doviak and Zrnic, 1993). Usually, the costs of installation and maintenance these systems are one of the main limitations for their diffusion. Recently, the increased use of X band frequencies for weather radar applications, for instance to cover small catchments and urban areas, has pushed the activity to develop, improve and study such systems (e.g., Delrieu et al., 1999b; Maki et al., 2005; Marzano et al., 2010; Picciotti et al., 2013). In this respect, since November 2011, a single polarization X-band weather radar, called WR-10X, has been installed in Naples’ urban area at the top of Castel Sant’Elmo (280 m a.s.l.). The radar belongs to the Campania Center for Marine and Atmospheric Modelling and Monitoring (CCMMMA) of the University of Naples “Parthenope” and provides high resolution rainfall data which are necessary for monitoring urban flash flood and for runoff simulation in urban drainage. The objective of this work is to calibrate WR-10X rain-rate estimation with the available rain-gauge network using time-space correlation approach in according to rainfall nature (stratiform, convective and mixed). To mitigate ground and sea clutter returns, path attenuation and other impairments, a processing chain has been applied to radar data before rain-rate estimation. To pursue this aim, a large set of data covering a two years period and consisting of radar scans and gauge measurements, have been collected and carefully processed. The structure of the article will follow the list of the topics just mentioned

Fuzzy-logic detection and probability of hail exploiting short-range X-band weather radar

This work proposes a new method for hail precipitation detection and probability, based on single-polarization X-band radar measurements. Using a dataset consisting of reflectivity volumes, ground truth observations and atmospheric sounding data, a probability of hail index, which provides a simple estimate of the hail potential, has been trained and adapted within Naples metropolitan environment study area. The probability of hail has been calculated starting by four different hail detection methods. The first two, based on (1) reflectivity data and temperature measurements and (2) on vertically-integrated liquid density product, respectively, have been selected from the available literature. The other two techniques are based on combined criteria of the above mentioned methods: the first one (3) is based on the linear discriminant analysis, whereas the other one (4) relies on the fuzzy-logic approach. The latter is an innovative criterion based on a fuzzyfication step performed through ramp membership functions. The performances of the four methods have been tested using an independent dataset: the results highlight that the fuzzy-oriented combined method performs slightly better in terms of false alarm ratio, critical success index and area under the relative operating characteristic. An example of application of the proposed hail detection and probability products is also presented for a relevant hail event, occurred on 21 July 2014

Fuzzy-logic detection and probability of hail exploiting short-range X-band weather radar

This work proposes a new method for hail precipitation detection and probability, based on single-polarization X-band radar measurements. Using a dataset consisting of reflectivity volumes, ground truth observations and atmospheric sounding data, a probability of hail index, which provides a simple estimate of the hail potential, has been trained and adapted within Naples metropolitan environment study area. The probability of hail has been calculated starting by four different hail detection methods. The first two, based on (1) reflectivity data and temperature measurements and (2) on vertically-integrated liquid density product, respectively, have been selected from the available literature. The other two techniques are based on combined criteria of the above mentioned methods: the first one (3) is based on the linear discriminant analysis, whereas the other one (4) relies on the fuzzy-logic approach. The latter is an innovative criterion based on a fuzzyfication step performed through ramp membership functions. The performances of the four methods have been tested using an independent dataset: the results highlight that the fuzzy-oriented combined method performs slightly better in terms of false alarm ratio, critical success index and area under the relative operating characteristic. An example of application of the proposed hail detection and probability products is also presented for a relevant hail event, occurred on 21 July 2014

Hail detection in Naples urban area using single-polarization X-band weather radar: Preliminary results

Naples metropolitan area, one of the most populous in Italy, is highly affected by severe convective storms all year round. Thunderstorm events are sometimes associated with hail precipitation that can cause severe damage to transport activities, especially to aviation. The aim of this work is to develop a radar-based Probability of Hail (POH) index that can help in hail risk management. To achieve this goal, an analysis of 37 thunderstorm events occurred between April 2012 and December 2014 has been carried out, using single-polarization X-Band weather radar reflectivity measurements and ground observations. In order to identify hail from radar data, a method based on VIL-Density radar product (VLD) was applied. An extensive intercomparison between the outcomes of weather radar and ground verification data has been performed using a 2×2 contingency table and statistical scores. The results show that hail is likely to occur when VLD exceed 2.6 g m-3 warning threshold. The POH index has been tested for a thunderstorm event occurred on May 26, 2012 and has proven to be particularly reliable in hail core detection

Microwave and optical active remote sensing signatures of volcanic ash clouds from ground

Active remote sensing retrieval from ground, in terms of detection, estimation and sensitivity, of volcanic ash plumes is not only dependent on the sensors' specifications, but also on the range and ash cloud distribution. The minimum detectable signal can be increased, for a given system and ash plume scenario, by decreasing the observation range and increasing the operational frequency using a multi-sensor approach, but also exploiting possible polarimetric capabilities. This work, starting from the results of a previous study and from above mentioned issues, is aimed at quantitatively assessing the optimal choices for microwave and millimeter-wave radar systems with a dual-polarization capability for real-time ash cloud remote sensing to be used in combination with an optical lidar. The physical-electromagnetic model of ash particle distributions is systematically reviewed and extended to include non-spherical particle shapes, vesicular composition, silicate content and orientation phenomena. The radar and lidar scattering and absorption response is simulated and analyzed in terms of self-consistent polarimetric signatures for ash classification purposes and correlation with ash concentration and mean diameter for quantitative retrieval aims. A sensitivity analysis to ash concentration, as a function of sensor specifications, range and ash category, is carried out trying to assess the expected multi-sensor multi-spectral system performances and limitations. © 2012 IEEE