Climate-driven changes in the predictability of seasonal precipitation

Climate-driven changes in precipitation amounts and their seasonal variability are expected in many continental-scale regions during the remainder of the 21st century. However, much less is known about future changes in the predictability of seasonal precipitation, an important earth system property relevant for climate adaptation. Here, on the basis of CMIP6 models that capture the present-day teleconnections between seasonal precipitation and previous-season sea surface temperature (SST), we show that climate change is expected to alter the SST-precipitation relationships and thus our ability to predict seasonal precipitation by 2100. Specifically, in the tropics, seasonal precipitation predictability from SSTs is projected to increase throughout the year, except the northern Amazonia during boreal winter. Concurrently, in the extra-tropics predictability is likely to increase in central Asia during boreal spring and winter. The altered predictability, together with enhanced interannual variability of seasonal precipitation, poses new opportunities and challenges for regional water management

20-Hydroxyecdysone from Dacrycarpus imbricatus bark inhibits the proliferation of acute myeloid leukemia cells

Abstract Objective To investigate the anti-proliferative effects of 20-hydroxyecdysone isolated from the bark of Dacrycarpus imbricatus (Blume) de Laub. Methods Column chromatography was used for isolation of compounds from plant material. The structure of the isolated compound was identified by mass spectrometry and nuclear magnetic resonance techniques, including HSQC, HMBC, NOE-difference experiments. The isolated compound was tested for its anti-proliferative activity in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and OCI-AML cells. Results Compound 1 was isolated from the ethyl acetate fraction of Dacrycarpus imbricatus barks by column chromatography. Its chemical structure was identified as 20-hydroxyecdysone (20HE), a cholestane-type ecdysteroid, by a combination of mass spectrometry and nuclear magnetic resonance spectrometric analyses. Our goal was to test the anti-proliferative activity of 20HE using the OCI-AML cell line. 20HE significantly decreased OCI cell number at a concentration of 1 mg/mL, whereas lower concentrations were ineffective. Moreover, this decrease was due to partial blockage of the G 1 /S phase of the cell cycle, with a reduction of cells in the G 2 M phase, not due to increased apoptosis. Conclusions This indicates that 20HE significantly decreases the number of cells in the G 1 /S phase of the cell cycle in human AML cells. This is the first time that the anti-proliferative activity of 20HE against a human tumor cell line has been reported

Functional outcome and muscle wasting in adults with tetanus.

BACKGROUND: In many countries, in-hospital survival from tetanus is increasing, but long-term outcome is unknown. In high-income settings, critical illness is associated with muscle wasting and poor functional outcome, but there are few data from resource-limited settings. In this study we aimed to assess muscle wasting and long-term functional outcome in adults with tetanus. METHODS: In a prospective observational study involving 80 adults with tetanus, sequential rectus femoris ultrasound measurements were made at admission, 7 days, 14 days and hospital discharge. Functional outcome was assessed at hospital discharge using the Timed Up and Go test, Clinical Frailty Score, Barthel Index and RAND 36-item Short Form Health Survey (SF-36) and 3 and 6 months after discharge using the SF-36 and Barthel Index. RESULTS: Significant muscle wasting occurred between hospital admission and discharge (p70 y of age, functional recovery at 6 months was reduced compared with younger patients. Hospital-acquired infection and age were risk factors for muscle wasting. CONCLUSIONS: Significant muscle wasting during hospitalization occurred in patients with tetanus, the extent of which correlates with functional outcome

Intensified Antituberculosis Therapy in Adults with Tuberculous Meningitis

BACKGROUND Tuberculous meningitis is often lethal. Early antituberculosis treatment and adjunctive treatment with glucocorticoids improve survival, but nearly one third of patients with the condition still die. We hypothesized that intensified antituberculosis treatment would enhance the killing of intracerebral Mycobacterium tuberculosis organisms and decrease the rate of death among patients. METHODS We performed a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial involving human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected adults and HIV-uninfected adults with a clinical diagnosis of tuberculous meningitis who were admitted to one of two Vietnamese hospitals. We compared a standard, 9-month antituberculosis regimen (which included 10 mg of rifampin per kilogram of body weight per day) with an intensified regimen that included higher-dose rifampin (15 mg per kilogram per day) and levofloxacin (20 mg per kilogram per day) for the first 8 weeks of treatment. The primary outcome was death by 9 months after randomization. RESULTS A total of 817 patients (349 of whom were HIV-infected) were enrolled; 409 were randomly assigned to receive the standard regimen, and 408 were assigned to receive intensified treatment. During the 9 months of follow-up, 113 patients in the intensified-treatment group and 114 patients in the standard-treatment group died (hazard ratio, 0.94; 95% confidence interval, 0.73 to 1.22; P=0.66). There was no evidence of a significant differential effect of intensified treatment in the overall population or in any of the subgroups, with the possible exception of patients infected with isoniazid-resistant M. tuberculosis. There were also no significant differences in secondary outcomes between the treatment groups. The overall number of adverse events leading to treatment interruption did not differ significantly between the treatment groups (64 events in the standard-treatment group and 95 events in the intensified-treatment group, P=0.08). CONCLUSIONS Intensified antituberculosis treatment was not associated with a higher rate of survival among patients with tuberculous meningitis than standard treatment. (Funded by the Wellcome Trust and the Li Ka Shing Foundation; Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN61649292.)

Combination Antifungal Therapy for Cryptococcal Meningitis

Background Combination antifungal therapy (amphotericin B deoxycholate and flucytosine) is the recommended treatment for cryptococcal meningitis but has not been shown to reduce mortality, as compared with amphotericin B alone. We performed a randomized, controlled trial to determine whether combining flucytosine or high-dose fluconazole with high-dose amphotericin B improved survival at 14 and 70 days. Methods We conducted a randomized, three-group, open-label trial of induction therapy for cryptococcal meningitis in patients with human immunodeficiency virus infection. All patients received amphotericin B at a dose of 1 mg per kilogram of body weight per day; patients in group 1 were treated for 4 weeks, and those in groups 2 and 3 for 2 weeks. Patients in group 2 concurrently received flucytosine at a dose of 100 mg per kilogram per day for 2 weeks, and those in group 3 concurrently received fluconazole at a dose of 400 mg twice daily for 2 weeks. Results A total of 299 patients were enrolled. Fewer deaths occurred by days 14 and 70 among patients receiving amphotericin B and flucytosine than among those receiving amphotericin B alone (15 vs. 25 deaths by day 14; hazard ratio, 0.57; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.30 to 1.08; unadjusted P=0.08; and 30 vs. 44 deaths by day 70; hazard ratio, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.39 to 0.97; unadjusted P=0.04). Combination therapy with fluconazole had no significant effect on survival, as compared with monotherapy (hazard ratio for death by 14 days, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.44 to 1.41; P=0.42; hazard ratio for death by 70 days, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.45 to 1.11; P=0.13). Amphotericin B plus flucytosine was associated with significantly increased rates of yeast clearance from cerebrospinal fluid (−0.42 log10 colony-forming units [CFU] per milliliter per day vs. −0.31 and −0.32 log10 CFU per milliliter per day in groups 1 and 3, respectively; P<0.001 for both comparisons). Rates of adverse events were similar in all groups, although neutropenia was more frequent in patients receiving a combination therapy. Conclusions Amphotericin B plus flucytosine, as compared with amphotericin B alone, is associated with improved survival among patients with cryptococcal meningitis. A survival benefit of amphotericin B plus fluconazole was not found

Development and validation of an interpretable machine learning-based calculator for predicting 5-year weight trajectories after bariatric surgery: a multinational retrospective cohort SOPHIA study

Background Weight loss trajectories after bariatric surgery vary widely between individuals, and predicting weight loss before the operation remains challenging. We aimed to develop a model using machine learning to provide individual preoperative prediction of 5-year weight loss trajectories after surgery. Methods In this multinational retrospective observational study we enrolled adult participants (aged $\ge$18 years) from ten prospective cohorts (including ABOS [NCT01129297], BAREVAL [NCT02310178], the Swedish Obese Subjects study, and a large cohort from the Dutch Obesity Clinic [Nederlandse Obesitas Kliniek]) and two randomised trials (SleevePass [NCT00793143] and SM-BOSS [NCT00356213]) in Europe, the Americas, and Asia, with a 5 year followup after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass, sleeve gastrectomy, or gastric band. Patients with a previous history of bariatric surgery or large delays between scheduled and actual visits were excluded. The training cohort comprised patients from two centres in France (ABOS and BAREVAL). The primary outcome was BMI at 5 years. A model was developed using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator to select variables and the classification and regression trees algorithm to build interpretable regression trees. The performances of the model were assessed through the median absolute deviation (MAD) and root mean squared error (RMSE) of BMI. Findings10 231 patients from 12 centres in ten countries were included in the analysis, corresponding to 30 602 patient-years. Among participants in all 12 cohorts, 7701 (75$\bullet$3%) were female, 2530 (24$\bullet$7%) were male. Among 434 baseline attributes available in the training cohort, seven variables were selected: height, weight, intervention type, age, diabetes status, diabetes duration, and smoking status. At 5 years, across external testing cohorts the overall mean MAD BMI was 2$\bullet$8 kg/m${}^2$ (95% CI 2$\bullet$6-3$\bullet$0) and mean RMSE BMI was 4$\bullet$7 kg/m${}^2$ (4$\bullet$4-5$\bullet$0), and the mean difference between predicted and observed BMI was-0$\bullet$3 kg/m${}^2$ (SD 4$\bullet$7). This model is incorporated in an easy to use and interpretable web-based prediction tool to help inform clinical decision before surgery. InterpretationWe developed a machine learning-based model, which is internationally validated, for predicting individual 5-year weight loss trajectories after three common bariatric interventions.Comment: The Lancet Digital Health, 202