Caution and conservatism in the making of monetary policy

Does society benefit from the delegation of monetary policy to cautious and conservative central bankers? We offer a critical view on the delegation literature and relax seemingly innocuous assumptions about uncertainty and preferences. First, caution improves credibility but does not obviate the need for central-bank conservatism. Second, previous models of delegation have focused on suboptimal forms of conservatism. We derive optimal concepts of conservatism that mitigate, or eliminate, any residual problem of credibility. Third, we rationalize why credible monetary policy may be conducive to stable inflation and output. JEL Classification: E50

Ending Extreme Poverty and Sharing Prosperity: Progress and Policies

To guide its work toward a "world free of poverty," the World Bank Group in 2013 established two clear goals: end extreme poverty by 2030 and promote shared prosperity. Along with the requirement to pursue these goals sustainably -- economically, environmentally, and socially -- the two goals are comprehensive in nature. They are fully aligned to support the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) set by the United Nations to replace the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). To evaluate progress, the two goals are measured by two overall indicators: a reduction in the global headcount ratio of extreme poverty (the population share of those whose income is below the international poverty line) to 3 percent by 2030, and the promotion of income growth in the bottom 40 (B40) percent of the population in each country.This Policy Research Note updates the assessment of progress toward these two goals in a sustainable manner. The poverty goal is examined through three lenses: the evolution of income poverty based on the new international poverty line that has been re-estimated at $1.90 a day; an assessment of person-equivalent income poverty, a new intuitive indicator that combines the incidence with the depth of poverty; and a review of the breadth of poverty, recognizing that income shortfalls often coexist with multiple non-income deprivations. The shared prosperity goal is examined on the basis of the latest comparison of (comparable) household data on B40 income growth. As part of its analysis of the two goals, this note also comments on the status of defining and monitoring sustainability in its economic, environmental and social aspects

Making monetary policy: Caution, conservatism and the public supply of liquidity.

This dissertation offers two perspectives on the making of monetary policy under uncertainty. The first two chapters examine the consequences of uncertainty for the macroeconomic function of the central bank - the stabilisation of macroeconomic variables of interest around socially desirable targets. The third chapter examines the consequences of uncertainty for the central bank's microeconomic function - the public supply of liquidity. The first chapter asks whether society benefits from the delegation of monetary policy to cautious and conservative central bankers. We offer a critical view on the delegation literature and relax seemingly innocuous assumptions about uncertainty and preferences. First, caution improves credibility but does not obviate the need for central-bank conservatism. Second, previous models of delegation have focused on suboptimal forms of conservatism. We derive optimal concepts of conservatism that mitigate, or eliminate, any residual problem of credibility. Third, we rationalize why credible monetary policy may be conducive to stable inflation and output. The second chapter examines the implications of instrument uncertainty for optimal monetary policy following the introduction of non-quadratic preferences. We investigate both symmetric and asymmetric preferences and discuss the consequences for caution, gradualism and the optimal delegation of monetary policy. The third chapter examines the microeconomic role of the central bank. We develop a rationale for the provision of public liquidity based on an incomplete contracting framework. The model illustrates to what extent wealth-constrained entrepreneurs are leveraged by collateralized debt contracts and examines the consequences of costly collateral liquidation and aggregate asset price uncertainty for the provision of external finance

Monetary Policy Loss Functions: Two Cheers for the Quadratic

The authors examine the implications for the optimal interest rate rule that follow from relaxing the assumption that the policy-maker's loss function is quadratic. They investigate deviations from quadratics for both symmetric and asymmetric preferences for a single target and find that (i) other characterisations of risk aversion than implied by the quadratic only affect dead-weight losses, unless there is multiplicative uncertainty; and (ii) asymmetries affect the optimal rule under both additive and multiplicative uncertainty but result in interest rate paths observationally similar, and in some cases equivalent, to those implied by a shifted quadratic. The results suggest that in the context of monetary policy-making the convenient assumption of quadratic losses may not be that drastic after all

The role of achievement, gender, SES, location and policy in explaining the Indigenous gap in high-school completion

Internationally, there is a gap in high-school completion rates for Indigenous and non-Indigenous students. In Australia, gap estimates are commonly based on lag indicators, precluding examination of underlying mechanisms. Using two longitudinal representative samples of Australian youth, we explored differences in high-school completion between Australian Indigenous and non-Indigenous rates, and whether the gap varies for students of similar academic ability. Using an intersectional approach, we show the Indigenous gap is significant, is mostly a function of differences in academic achievement, but varies by socioeconomic status (SES) and location. Specifically, high SES and living in urban settings are protective factors for non-Indigenous students, but not for Indigenous students. Conversely, rural and poor non-Indigenous students appeared to have dropout rates as large or even larger than similarly poor and rural Indigenous youth. Overall, the results suggest the need for a more nuanced perspective on ‘Indigenous gaps’ in educational attainment

Aspects of Fractional Superstrings

We investigate some issues relating to recently proposed fractional superstring theories with $D_{\rm critical}<10$. Using the factorization approach of Gepner and Qiu, we systematically rederive the partition functions of the $K=4,\, 8,$ and $16$ theories and examine their spacetime supersymmetry. Generalized GSO projection operators for the $K=4$ model are found. Uniqueness of the twist field, $\phi^{K/4}_{K/4}$, as source of spacetime fermions is demonstrated. Last, we derive a linear (rather than quadratic) relationship between the required conformal anomaly and the conformal dimension of the supercurrent ghost.Comment: 36 pages, CALT-68-1756 Revisions to match form to appear in Comm. Math. Phys. Use standard TeX. Derivation of affine partition functions related to $D=4,6$ models is now shown. References Update

The World Federation of ADHD International Consensus Statement:208 Evidence-based conclusions about the disorder

Background: Misconceptions about ADHD stigmatize affected people, reduce credibility of providers, and prevent/delay treatment. To challenge misconceptions, we curated findings with strong evidence base. Methods: We reviewed studies with more than 2000 participants or meta-analyses from five or more studies or 2000 or more participants. We excluded meta-analyses that did not assess publication bias, except for meta-analyses of prevalence. For network meta-analyses we required comparison adjusted funnel plots. We excluded treatment studies with waiting-list or treatment as usual controls. From this literature, we extracted evidence-based assertions about the disorder. Results: We generated 208 empirically supported statements about ADHD. The status of the included statements as empirically supported is approved by 80 authors from 27 countries and 6 continents. The contents of the manuscript are endorsed by 366 people who have read this document and agree with its contents. Conclusions: Many findings in ADHD are supported by meta-analysis. These allow for firm statements about the nature, course, outcome causes, and treatments for disorders that are useful for reducing misconceptions and stigma.</p