Parallel algorithms for simulating continuous time Markov chains

We have previously shown that the mathematical technique of uniformization can serve as the basis of synchronization for the parallel simulation of continuous-time Markov chains. This paper reviews the basic method and compares five different methods based on uniformization, evaluating their strengths and weaknesses as a function of problem characteristics. The methods vary in their use of optimism, logical aggregation, communication management, and adaptivity. Performance evaluation is conducted on the Intel Touchstone Delta multiprocessor, using up to 256 processors

Intoxicated eyewitnesses:the effects of alcohol on eyewitness recall across repeated interviews

The study evaluated the usefulness of repeat-interviewing of witnesses to crimes who were intoxicated by alcohol at the time of the incident and their first interview, and then re-interviewed when not intoxicated the following day. Sixty young, social drinkers were divided into three groups. One group was given a “placebo” (alcohol-like) beverage, a second was given a “low dose” of alcohol (0.2 g/kg men; 0.17 g/kg women), and a third was given a “high dose” of alcohol (0.6 g/kg men; 0.52 g/kg women) over a 15 minute period. Twenty minutes later they viewed a 4-minute video of a crime, and afterwards they were given two opportunities to recall everything that they could remember from the incident; the first opportunity was immediately after the event, and the second was 24 hours later. Analyses of the quantity and accuracy of the details recalled revealed no overall increase in the total amount of information recalled between the first and second recall opportunities. However, on average, 18% of the details recalled by participants in the second test were new and accurate. The incidence of contradictions between the first and second recall opportunities was less than 1%. Surprisingly, none of the effects were influenced by alcohol, even at the highest dose. The results imply that 1) memory for at least some incidents observed under the influence of alcohol is resilient even up to relatively high blood-alcohol levels; and 2) the repeated interviewing of witnesses who were intoxicated at the time of the crime can reveal additional, reliable information that is not present at the initial interview, just as is the case for non-intoxicated witnesses

Consumer attitudes to injurious pecking in free range egg production

Free range egg producers face continuing problems from injurious pecking (IP) which has financial consequences for farmers and poor welfare implications for birds. Beak trimming has been practised for many years to limit the damage caused by IP, but with the UK Government giving notification that they intend to ban beak trimming in 2016, considerable efforts have been made to devise feasible housing, range and management strategies to reduce IP. A recent research project investigated the efficacy of a range of IP reducing management strategies, the mean costs of which came to around 5 pence per bird. Here, the results of the above project’s consumer survey are presented: consumers’ attitudes to free range egg production are detailed showing that, whilst consumers had a very positive attitude towards free range eggs, they were especially uninformed about some aspects of free range egg production. The contingent valuation technique was used to estimate the price premium consumers would be prepared to pay to ensure that hens do not suffer from IP: this was calculated as just over 3% on top of the prevailing retail price of free range eggs. These findings reinforce other studies that have found that whilst consumers are not generally well-informed about certain specific welfare problems faced by animals under free range conditions, they are prepared to pay to improve animal welfare. Indeed, the study findings suggest that producers could obtain an additional price premium if they demonstrate the welfare provenance of their eggs, perhaps through marketing the eggs as coming from birds with intact beaks. This welfare provenance issue could usefully be assured to consumers by the introduction of a mandatory, single, accredited EU-wide welfare-standards labelling scheme

Reduced Sympathetic Innervation Underlies Adjacent Noninfarcted Region Dysfunction During Left Ventricular Remodeling

AbstractObjectives. We examined the association of sympathetic denervation and reduced blood flow with mechanical dysfunction in adjacent noninfarcted regions late after myocardial infarction (MI).Background. Using a well characterized ovine model of left ventricular (LV) remodeling after transmural anteroapical MI, we previously showed that histologically normal adjacent noninfarcted regions demonstrate mechanical dysfunction.Methods. Ten sheep underwent coronary ligation. Magnetic resonance imaging was performed before and 8 weeks after infarction for measurement of LV mass, volumes, ejection fraction and regional intramyocardial circumferential shortening (%S). Iodine-123 metaiodobenzylguanidine (I-123 MIBG) and fluorescent microspheres before and after administration of adenosine were infused before death for measurement of sympathetic innervation, blood flow and blood flow reserve from matched postmortem regions.Results. From baseline to 8 weeks after infarction, LV end-diastolic volume increased from (mean ± SD) 1.5 ± 0.3 to 2.6 ± 0.5 ml/kg (p < 0.001), and LV mass increased from 2.0 ± 0.3 to 2.6 ± 0.5 g/kg (p = 0.001). Regionally, the decline in subendocardial %S was greater in adjacent (19 ± 5% to 8 ± 5%) than in remote noninfarcted regions (20 ± 6% to 19 ± 6%, p < 0.002). No difference in regional blood flow or blood flow reserve was found between adjacent and remote regions, whereas I-123 MIBG uptake was lower in adjacent than in remote myocardium (1.09 ± 0.30 vs. 1.31 ± 0.40 nmol/g, p < 0.003). Topographically, from apex to base at 8 weeks after infarction, %S correlated closely with I-123 MIBG uptake (r = 0.93, p = 0.003).Conclusions. In mechanically dysfunctional noninfarcted regions adjacent to chronic transmural myocardial infarction in the remodeled left ventricle, blood flow and blood flow reserve are preserved, yet sympathetic innervation is reduced. Chronic sympathetic denervation in adjacent noninfarcted regions, in association with regional mechanical dysfunction, may contribute to LV remodeling after infarction

Correlated effects of ocean acidification and warming on behavioral and metabolic traits of a large pelagic fish

Ocean acidification and warming are co-occurring stressors, yet their effects on early life stages of large pelagic fishes are not well known. Here, we determined the effects of elevated CO2 and temperature at levels projected for the end of the century on activity levels, boldness, and metabolic traits (i.e., oxygen uptake rates) in larval kingfish (Seriola lalandi), a large pelagic fish with a circumglobal distribution. We also examined correlations between these behavioral and physiological traits measured under different treatments. Kingfish were reared from the egg stage to 25 days post-hatch in a full factorial design of ambient and elevated CO2 (~500 &micro;atm and ~1000 &micro;atm) and temperature (21 &deg;C and 25 &deg;C). Activity levels were higher in fish from the elevated temperature treatment compared with fish reared under ambient temperature. However, elevated CO2 did not affect activity, and boldness was not affected by either elevated CO2 or temperature. Both elevated CO2 and temperature resulted in increased resting oxygen uptake rates compared to fish reared under ambient conditions, but neither affected maximum oxygen uptake rates nor aerobic scope. Resting oxygen uptake rates and boldness were negatively correlated under ambient temperature, but positively correlated under elevated temperature. Maximum oxygen uptake rates and boldness were also negatively correlated under ambient temperature. These findings suggest that elevated temperature has a greater impact on behavioral and physiological traits of larval kingfish than elevated CO2. However, elevated CO2 exposure did increase resting oxygen uptake rates and interact with temperature in complex ways. Our results provide novel behavioral and physiological data on the responses of the larval stage of a large pelagic fish to ocean acidification and warming conditions, demonstrate correlations between these traits, and suggest that these correlations could influence the direction and pace of adaptation to global climate change

A citizen science trial to assess perception of wild penguin welfare

Wild penguins are facing increased threats to their populations and their welfare as a consequence of human activities. Understanding the perception of animal welfare is essential to identify ethical concerns related to the negative impact of anthropogenic factors on wild species and to guide conservation efforts that reflect societal values. Since penguin conservation is of general interest, we examined the human dimension of welfare assessment across a range of interest groups concerned with penguins, seabird biology and wildlife conservation. We provided participants with a Penguin Welfare Assessment Tool (PWAT) based on the five domains model. The PWAT supports consideration of the impact of four physical aspects on welfare-relevant mental states. Bibliometric analysis of keywords from 347 scientific articles indicated that penguins around the world face five main types (themes) of anthropogenic factors and we then developed five hypothetical scenarios, each related to one theme. Seventy-five participants scored the overall impact of the events described in the scenarios on penguin welfare as negative using the PWAT. Participants rated short-duration, high-intensity events (i.e., being trapped in a ghost fishing net) as having a significantly more severe impact on penguin welfare than low-intensity, long-duration events (P < 0.0001). Scores provided by participants for each domain for each scenario were largely as expected and we found good correlation (all P < 0.0001) between the physical domains and “mental state” for all scenarios, indicating that the tool was facilitating the participants' assessment of welfare. No evidence was found that experience of working or studying penguins, or indeed any other demographic factor investigated, influenced the assessments of welfare. We found little agreement between participants in the scores provided (unalike scores mostly between 0.7 and 0.8), and agreement between participants with experience of working with penguins was no better than between participants without such experience. We discuss the possibility that low agreement within different interest groups may be improved by providing more scientific information to support the evaluation of penguin welfare. We conclude that scientific knowledge of penguin biological responses to anthropogenic factors is vital to support the evaluation of wild penguin welfare by the public and other stakeholders

Antidepressant augmentation versus switch in treatment-resistant geriatric depression

BACKGROUND: The benefits and risks of augmenting or switching antidepressants in older adults with treatment-resistant depression have not been extensively studied. METHODS: We conducted a two-step, open-label trial involving adults 60 years of age or older with treatment-resistant depression. In step 1, patients were randomly assigned in a 1:1:1 ratio to augmentation of existing antidepressant medication with aripiprazole, augmentation with bupropion, or a switch from existing antidepressant medication to bupropion. Patients who did not benefit from or were ineligible for step 1 were randomly assigned in step 2 in a 1:1 ratio to augmentation with lithium or a switch to nortriptyline. Each step lasted approximately 10 weeks. The primary outcome was the change from baseline in psychological well-being, assessed with the National Institutes of Health Toolbox Positive Affect and General Life Satisfaction subscales (population mean, 50; higher scores indicate greater well-being). A secondary outcome was remission of depression. RESULTS: In step 1, a total of 619 patients were enrolled; 211 were assigned to aripiprazole augmentation, 206 to bupropion augmentation, and 202 to a switch to bupropion. Well-being scores improved by 4.83 points, 4.33 points, and 2.04 points, respectively. The difference between the aripiprazole-augmentation group and the switch-to-bupropion group was 2.79 points (95% CI, 0.56 to 5.02; P = 0.014, with a prespecified threshold P value of 0.017); the between-group differences were not significant for aripiprazole augmentation versus bupropion augmentation or for bupropion augmentation versus a switch to bupropion. Remission occurred in 28.9% of patients in the aripiprazole-augmentation group, 28.2% in the bupropion-augmentation group, and 19.3% in the switch-to-bupropion group. The rate of falls was highest with bupropion augmentation. In step 2, a total of 248 patients were enrolled; 127 were assigned to lithium augmentation and 121 to a switch to nortriptyline. Well-being scores improved by 3.17 points and 2.18 points, respectively (difference, 0.99; 95% CI, -1.92 to 3.91). Remission occurred in 18.9% of patients in the lithium-augmentation group and 21.5% in the switch-to-nortriptyline group; rates of falling were similar in the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: In older adults with treatment-resistant depression, augmentation of existing antidepressants with aripiprazole improved well-being significantly more over 10 weeks than a switch to bupropion and was associated with a numerically higher incidence of remission. Among patients in whom augmentation or a switch to bupropion failed, changes in well-being and the occurrence of remission with lithium augmentation or a switch to nortriptyline were similar. (Funded by the Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute; OPTIMUM ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02960763.)

Organ health and development in larval kingfish are unaffected by ocean acidification and warming

Anthropogenic CO₂ emissions are causing global ocean warming and ocean acidification. The early life stages of some marine fish are vulnerable to elevated ocean temperatures and CO₂ concentrations, with lowered survival and growth rates most frequently documented. Underlying these effects, damage to different organs has been found as a response to elevated CO₂ in larvae of several species of marine fish, yet the combined effects of acidification and warming on organ health are unknown. Yellowtail kingfish, Seriola lalandi, a circumglobal subtropical pelagic fish of high commercial and recreational value, were reared from fertilization under control (21 °C) and elevated (25 °C) temperature conditions fully crossed with control (500 µatm) and elevated (1,000 µatm) pCO₂ conditions. Larvae were sampled at 11 days and 21 days post hatch for histological analysis of the eye, gills, gut, liver, pancreas, kidney and liver. Previous work found elevated temperature, but not elevated CO₂, significantly reduced larval kingfish survival while increasing growth and developmental rate. The current histological analysis aimed to determine whether there were additional sublethal effects on organ condition and development and whether underlying organ damage could be responsible for the documented effects of temperature on survivorship. While damage to different organs was found in a number of larvae, these effects were not related to temperature and/or CO₂ treatment. We conclude that kingfish larvae are generally vulnerable during organogenesis of the digestive system in their early development, but that this will not be exacerbated by near-future ocean warming and acidification

Ocean Futures for the World’s Largest Yellowfin Tuna Population Under the Combined Effects of Ocean Warming and Acidification

The impacts of climate change are expected to have profound effects on the fisheries of the Pacific Ocean, including its tuna fisheries, the largest globally. This study examined the combined effects of climate change on the yellowfin tuna population using the ecosystem model SEAPODYM. Yellowfin tuna fisheries in the Pacific contribute significantly to the economies and food security of Pacific Island Countries and Territories and Oceania. We use an ensemble of earth climate models to project yellowfin populations under a high greenhouse gas emissions (IPCC RCP8.5) scenario, which includes, the combined effects of a warming ocean, increasing acidification and changing ocean chemistry. Our results suggest that the acidification impact will be smaller in comparison to the ocean warming impact, even in the most extreme ensemble member scenario explored, but will have additional influences on yellowfin tuna population dynamics. An eastward shift in the distribution of yellowfin tuna was observed in the projections in the model ensemble in the absence of explicitly accounting for changes in acidification. The extent of this shift did not substantially differ when the three-acidification induced larval mortality scenarios were included in the ensemble; however, acidification was projected to weaken the magnitude of the increase in abundance in the eastern Pacific. Together with intensive fishing, these potential changes are likely to challenge the global fishing industry as well as the economies and food systems of many small Pacific Island Countries and Territories. The modelling framework applied in this study provides a tool for evaluating such effects and informing policy development