On the probability of cost-effectiveness using data from randomized clinical trials

BACKGROUND: Acceptability curves have been proposed for quantifying the probability that a treatment under investigation in a clinical trial is cost-effective. Various definitions and estimation methods have been proposed. Loosely speaking, all the definitions, Bayesian or otherwise, relate to the probability that the treatment under consideration is cost-effective as a function of the value placed on a unit of effectiveness. These definitions are, in fact, expressions of the certainty with which the current evidence would lead us to believe that the treatment under consideration is cost-effective, and are dependent on the amount of evidence (i.e. sample size). METHODS: An alternative for quantifying the probability that the treatment under consideration is cost-effective, which is independent of sample size, is proposed. RESULTS: Non-parametric methods are given for point and interval estimation. In addition, these methods provide a non-parametric estimator and confidence interval for the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. An example is provided. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed parameter for quantifying the probability that a new therapy is cost-effective is superior to the acceptability curve because it is not sample size dependent and because it can be interpreted as the proportion of patients who would benefit if given the new therapy. Non-parametric methods are used to estimate the parameter and its variance, providing the appropriate confidence intervals and test of hypothesis

Family coordination in families who have a child with autism spectrum disorder

Little is known about the interactions of families where there is a child with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). The present study applies the Lausanne Trilogue Play (LTP) to explore both its applicability to this population as well as to assess resources and areas of deficit in these families. The sample consisted of 68 families with a child with ASD, and 43 families with a typically developing (TD) child. With respect to the global score for family coordination there were several negative correlations: the more severe the symptoms (based on the child’s ADOS score), the more family coordination was dysfunctional. This correlation was particularly high when parents had to play together with the child. In the parts in which only one of the parents played actively with the child, while the other was simply present, some families did achieve scores in the functional range, despite the child’s symptom severity. The outcomes are discussed in terms of their clinical implications both for assessment and for interventio

Neural Substrate of Cold-Seeking Behavior in Endotoxin Shock

Systemic inflammation is a leading cause of hospital death. Mild systemic inflammation is accompanied by warmth-seeking behavior (and fever), whereas severe inflammation is associated with cold-seeking behavior (and hypothermia). Both behaviors are adaptive. Which brain structures mediate which behavior is unknown. The involvement of hypothalamic structures, namely, the preoptic area (POA), paraventricular nucleus (PVH), or dorsomedial nucleus (DMH), in thermoregulatory behaviors associated with endotoxin (lipopolysaccharide [LPS])-induced systemic inflammation was studied in rats. The rats were allowed to select their thermal environment by freely moving in a thermogradient apparatus. A low intravenous dose of Escherichia coli LPS (10 µg/kg) caused warmth-seeking behavior, whereas a high, shock-inducing dose (5,000 µg/kg) caused cold-seeking behavior. Bilateral electrocoagulation of the PVH or DMH, but not of the POA, prevented this cold-seeking response. Lesioning the DMH with ibotenic acid, an excitotoxin that destroys neuronal bodies but spares fibers of passage, also prevented LPS-induced cold-seeking behavior; lesioning the PVH with ibotenate did not affect it. Lesion of no structure affected cold-seeking behavior induced by heat exposure or by pharmacological stimulation of the transient receptor potential (TRP) vanilloid-1 channel (“warmth receptor”). Nor did any lesion affect warmth-seeking behavior induced by a low dose of LPS, cold exposure, or pharmacological stimulation of the TRP melastatin-8 (“cold receptor”). We conclude that LPS-induced cold-seeking response is mediated by neuronal bodies located in the DMH and neural fibers passing through the PVH. These are the first two landmarks on the map of the circuitry of cold-seeking behavior associated with endotoxin shock

Nucleoporin98-96 Function Is Required for Transit Amplification Divisions in the Germ Line of Drosophila melanogaster

Production of specialized cells from precursors depends on a tightly regulated sequence of proliferation and differentiation steps. In the gonad of Drosophila melanogaster, the daughters of germ line stem cells (GSC) go through precisely four rounds of transit amplification divisions to produce clusters of 16 interconnected germ line cells before entering a stereotypic differentiation cascade. Here we show that animals harbouring a transposon insertion in the center of the complex nucleoporin98-96 (nup98-96) locus had severe defects in the early steps of this developmental program, ultimately leading to germ cell loss and sterility. A phenotypic analysis indicated that flies carrying the transposon insertion, designated nup98-962288, had dramatically reduced numbers of germ line cells. In contrast to controls, mutant testes contained many solitary germ line cells that had committed to differentiation as well as abnormally small clusters of two, four or eight differentiating germ line cells. This indicates that mutant GSCs rather differentiated than self-renewed, and that these GSCs and their daughters initiated the differentiation cascade after zero, or less than four rounds of amplification divisions. This phenotype remained unaffected by hyper-activation of signalling pathways that normally result in excessive proliferation of GSCs and their daughters. Expression of wildtype nup98-96 specifically in the germ line cells of mutant animals fully restored development of the GSC lineage, demonstrating that the effect of the mutation is cell-autonomous. Nucleoporins are the structural components of the nucleopore and have also been implicated in transcriptional regulation of specific target genes. The nuclear envelopes of germ cells and general nucleocytoplasmic transport in nup98-96 mutant animals appeared normal, leading us to propose that Drosophila nup98-96 mediates the transport or transcription of targets required for the developmental timing between amplification and differentiation

Systematic Analysis of Cell Cycle Effects of Common Drugs Leads to the Discovery of a Suppressive Interaction between Gemfibrozil and Fluoxetine

Screening chemical libraries to identify compounds that affect overall cell proliferation is common. However, in most cases, it is not known whether the compounds tested alter the timing of particular cell cycle transitions. Here, we evaluated an FDA-approved drug library to identify pharmaceuticals that alter cell cycle progression in yeast, using DNA content measurements by flow cytometry. This approach revealed strong cell cycle effects of several commonly used pharmaceuticals. We show that the antilipemic gemfibrozil delays initiation of DNA replication, while cells treated with the antidepressant fluoxetine severely delay progression through mitosis. Based on their effects on cell cycle progression, we also examined cell proliferation in the presence of both compounds. We discovered a strong suppressive interaction between gemfibrozil and fluoxetine. Combinations of interest among diverse pharmaceuticals are difficult to identify, due to the daunting number of possible combinations that must be evaluated. The novel interaction between gemfibrozil and fluoxetine suggests that identifying and combining drugs that show cell cycle effects might streamline identification of drug combinations with a pronounced impact on cell proliferation

Perception of Loudness Is Influenced by Emotion

Loudness perception is thought to be a modular system that is unaffected by other brain systems. We tested the hypothesis that loudness perception can be influenced by negative affect using a conditioning paradigm, where some auditory stimuli were paired with aversive experiences while others were not. We found that the same auditory stimulus was reported as being louder, more negative and fear-inducing when it was conditioned with an aversive experience, compared to when it was used as a control stimulus. This result provides support for an important role of emotion in auditory perception

Selective Breeding for a Behavioral Trait Changes Digit Ratio

The ratio of the length of the second digit (index finger) divided by the fourth digit (ring finger) tends to be lower in men than in women. This 2D∶4D digit ratio is often used as a proxy for prenatal androgen exposure in studies of human health and behavior. For example, 2D∶4D ratio is lower (i.e. more “masculinized”) in both men and women of greater physical fitness and/or sporting ability. Lab mice have also shown variation in 2D∶4D as a function of uterine environment, and mouse digit ratios seem also to correlate with behavioral traits, including daily activity levels. Selective breeding for increased rates of voluntary exercise (wheel running) in four lines of mice has caused correlated increases in aerobic exercise capacity, circulating corticosterone level, and predatory aggression. Here, we show that this selection regime has also increased 2D∶4D. This apparent “feminization” in mice is opposite to the relationship seen between 2D∶4D and physical fitness in human beings. The present results are difficult to reconcile with the notion that 2D∶4D is an effective proxy for prenatal androgen exposure; instead, it may more accurately reflect effects of glucocorticoids, or other factors that regulate any of many genes

Sequence-Dependent Fluorescence of Cyanine Dyes on Microarrays

Cy3 and Cy5 are among the most commonly used oligonucleotide labeling molecules. Studies of nucleic acid structure and dynamics use these dyes, and they are ubiquitous in microarray experiments. They are sensitive to their environment and have higher quantum yield when bound to DNA. The fluorescent intensity of terminal cyanine dyes is also known to be significantly dependent on the base sequence of the oligonucleotide. We have developed a very precise and high-throughput method to evaluate the sequence dependence of oligonucleotide labeling dyes using microarrays and have applied the method to Cy3 and Cy5. We used light-directed in-situ synthesis of terminally-labeled microarrays to determine the fluorescence intensity of each dye on all 1024 possible 5′-labeled 5-mers. Their intensity is sensitive to all five bases. Their fluorescence is higher with 5′ guanines, and adenines in subsequent positions. Cytosine suppresses fluorescence. Intensity falls by half over the range of all 5-mers for Cy3, and two-thirds for Cy5. Labeling with 5′-biotin-streptavidin-Cy3/-Cy5 gives a completely different sequence dependence and greatly reduces fluorescence compared with direct terminal labeling