Reference-dependent Preferences and the Transmission of Monetary Policy

This paper proposes a novel explanation of the vast empirical evidence showing that output and prices react asymmetrically to monetary policy innovations over contractions and expansions in the business cycle. We use VAR techniques to show that monetary policy exerts stronger e¤ects on the U.S. GDP during contractionary phases, as compared to expansionary ones. As to prices, their response is not statistically different across different cyclical stages. We show that these facts are consistent with a New Neoclassical Synthesis model based on the assumption that households' utility partly depends on deviations of their consumption from a reference level below which aversion to loss is displayed. In line with the theory developed by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), losses in consumption utility loom larger than gains. This implies state-dependent degrees of real rigidity and elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption that generate competing effects on the responses of output and inflation following a monetary innovation. The key predictions of the model are in line with the data. We then explore the state-dependent trade-off between inflation and output stabilization that naturally arises in this context. Greater elasticity of inflation to real activity during expansionary stages of the cycle promotes a stronger degree of policy activism in the response to the expected rate of inflation under discretion, compared to what is otherwise prescribed during contractions.Reference-dependent Preferences;Asymmetry;Monetary policy.

Adaptive models and heavy tails

This paper proposes a novel and flexible framework to estimate autoregressive models with time-varying parameters. Our setup nests various adaptive algorithms that are commonly used in the macroeconometric literature, such as learning-expectations and forgetting-factor algorithms. These are generalized along several directions: specifically, we allow for both Student-t distributed innovations as well as time-varying volatility. Meaningful restrictions are imposed to the model parameters, so as to attain local stationarity and bounded mean values. The model is applied to the analysis of inflation dynamics. Allowing for heavy-tails leads to a significant improvement in terms of fit and forecast. Moreover, it proves to be crucial in order to obtain well-calibrated density forecasts

Copper Oxide Nanoparticles Impact Several Toxicological Endpoints and Cause Neurodegeneration in \u3cem\u3eCaenorhabditis elegans\u3c/em\u3e

Engineered nanoparticles are becoming increasingly incorporated into technology and consumer products. In 2014, over 300 tons of copper oxide nanoparticles were manufactured in the United States. The increased production of nanoparticles raises concerns regarding the potential introduction into the environment or human exposure. Copper oxide nanoparticles commonly release copper ions into solutions, which contribute to their toxicity. We quantified the inhibitory effects of both copper oxide nanoparticles and copper sulfate on C. elegans toxicological endpoints to elucidate their biological effects. Several toxicological endpoints were analyzed in C. elegans, including nematode reproduction, feeding behavior, and average body length. We examined three wild C. elegans isolates together with the Bristol N2 laboratory strain to explore the influence of different genotypic backgrounds on the physiological response to copper challenge. All strains exhibited greater sensitivity to copper oxide nanoparticles compared to copper sulfate, as indicated by reduction of average body length and feeding behavior. Reproduction was significantly reduced only at the highest copper dose, though still more pronounced with copper oxide nanoparticles compared to copper sulfate treatment. Furthermore, we investigated the effects of copper oxide nanoparticles and copper sulfate on neurons, cells with known vulnerability to heavy metal toxicity. Degeneration of dopaminergic neurons was observed in up to 10% of the population after copper oxide nanoparticle exposure. Additionally, mutants in the divalent-metal transporters, smf-1 or smf-2, showed increased tolerance to copper exposure, implicating both transporters in copper-induced neurodegeneration. These results highlight the complex nature of CuO nanoparticle toxicity, in which a nanoparticle-specific effect was observed in some traits (average body length, feeding behavior) and a copper ion specific effect was observed for other traits (neurodegeneration, response to stress)

Factor demand linkages, technology shocks, and the business cycle

This paper argues that factor demand linkages can be important for the transmission of both sectoral and aggregate shocks. We show this using a panel of highly disaggregated manufacturing sectors together with sectoral structural VARs. When sectoral interactions are explicitly accounted for, a contemporaneous technology shock to all manufacturing sectors implies a positive response in both output and hours at the aggregate level. Otherwise there is a negative correlation, as in much of the existing literature. Furthermore, we find that technology shocks are important drivers of the business cycle

Investigational Paradigms in Downscoring and Upscoring DCIS: Surgical Management Review

Counseling patients with DCIS in a rational manner can be extremely difficult when the range of treatment criteria results in diverse and confusing clinical recommendations. Surgeons need tools that quantify measurable prognostic factors to be used in conjunction with clinical experience for the complex decision-making process. Combination of statistically significant tumor recurrence predictors and lesion parameters obtained after initial excision suggests that patients with DCIS can be stratified into specific subsets allowing a scientifically based discussion. The goal is to choose the treatment regimen that will significantly benefit each patient group without subjecting the patients to unnecessary risks. Exploring the effectiveness of complete excision may offer a starting place in a new way of reasoning and conceiving surgical modalities in terms of “downscoring” or “upscoring” patient risk, perhaps changing clinical approach. Reexcison may lower the specific subsets' score and improve local recurrence-free survival also by revealing a larger tumor size, a higher nuclear grade, or an involved margin and so suggesting the best management. It seems, that the key could be identifying significant relapse predictive factors, according to validated risk investigation models, whose value is modifiable by the surgical approach which avails of different diagnostic and therapeutic potentials to be optimal. Certainly DCIS clinical question cannot have a single curative mode due to heterogeneity of pathological lesions and histologic classification

Comparison between tensile properties and indentation properties measured with various shapes indenters of Copper-Chromium-Zirconium alloy at macroscale level

In this paper the experimental results of tensile properties and indentationproperties, as a function of pyramidal and spherical indenters, of Copper-Chromium-Zirconium alloy, in the macro-scale range at room temperature, are presented and compared. Measurements are performed on three Cu-Cr-Zr samples in order to evaluate different heat treatments: two samples areaged for 2 hours in a vacuum furnace at 480 °C, 550 °C and one sample is kept as received. The experimental procedures for the measurement of indentation modulus, by using the primary hardness standard machine at INRiM, and tensile modulus, by means of engineering tensile tests at CIRA, aredescribed

Liver contrast enhanced ultrasound perfusion imaging in the evaluation of chronic hepatitis C fibrosis: preliminary results

We wanted to determine whether liver contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS)–derived peak signal intensity (PSI) and peak signal intensity/time (PIT) predict liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis C (CHC). Fortynine patients with CHC (METAVIR classification) and 10 control subjects were included in the study. After a bolus of 2.4 mL SonoVue (Bracco Imaging, Milan, Italy) solution was injected into a peripheral vein, the right lobe of the liver containing the right portal vein was scanned in a transverse section. Two-dimensional sonography was performed using the Philips iU22 ultrasound system (Philips Healthcare, Best, the Netherlands). A 1.0–5.0-MHz (C5-1) wideband convex transducer was used, applying the following settings in all cases. Regions of interest were manually drawn over the right liver lobe and over the portal vein (PV). Liver parenchyma PSI (LPpsi) and PIT (LPpit), portal vein PSI (PVpsi) and PIT (PVpit) were automatically calculated. dPSI was defined as the difference between PVpsi and LPpsi. A significant correlation was observed between PAPSI and fibrosis scores. When patients were stratified according to their LPpsi, a significant difference was achieved only between patients with fibrosis score 0–1 vs. 2–3 and 2 vs. 4. Statistically significant differences between all fibrosis scores, except 0 vs. 1 and 3 vs. 4 were observed when dPSI was used to stratify patients. Overall diagnostic accuracy of LPpsi and dPSI measurement for severe fibrosis by area under the receiving operator characteristic curve analysis was, respectively, 0.87 and 0.88.We suggest that liver CEUS perfusion could have the potential to be used as a complementary tool for the evaluation of liver fibrosis. However, further large-scale studies are required to accurately assess its accuracy in the evaluation of liver fibrosis