Определение интервалов квазистационарности экономических систем

В работе рассмотрен вопрос определения оптимального интервала адаптации алгоритма динамического управления капиталом для нестационарного случая методами расчета показателя Херста и построения автокорреляционной функции для анализа временных рядов. Проведен анализ влияния выбора интервала адаптации на эффективность алгоритма. Из анализа полученных результатов следует, что метод расчета показателя Херста позволяет более эффективно, чем метод построения автокорреляционной функции, определить интервал стационарности модели функционирования экономической системы.Робота присвячена питанню визначення оптимального інтервалу адаптації алгоритму динамічного керування капіталом для нестаціонарного випадку за допомогою методів розрахунку показника Херста і побудови автокореляційної функції задля аналізу часових рядів. Проведено аналіз впливу вибору інтервалу адаптації на ефективність алгоритму. Порівняння результатів проведеного аналізу дозволяє стверджувати, що метод розрахунку показника Херста дозволяє більш ефективно, ніж метод побудови автокореляційної функції, визначити інтервал стаціонарності моделі функціонування економічної системи

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Nonadherence to medical therapy is frequently encountered in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). We aimed to identify predictors for future (non)adherence in IBD

Search Filters for Finding Prognostic and Diagnostic Prediction Studies in Medline to Enhance Systematic Reviews

Background: The interest in prognostic reviews is increasing, but to properly review existing evidence an accurate search filer for finding prediction research is needed. The aim of this paper was to validate and update two previously introduced search filters for finding prediction research in Medline: the Ingui filter and the Haynes Broad filter. Methodology/Principal Findings: Based on a hand search of 6 general journals in 2008 we constructed two sets of papers. Set 1 consisted of prediction research papers (n = 71), and set 2 consisted of the remaining papers (n = 1133). Both search filters were validated in two ways, using diagnostic accuracy measures as performance measures. First, we compared studies in set 1 (reference) with studies retrieved by the search strategies as applied in Medline. Second, we compared studies from 4 published systematic reviews (reference) with studies retrieved by the search filter as applied in Medline. Next -using word frequency methods - we constructed an additional search string for finding prediction research. Both search filters were good in identifying clinical prediction models: sensitivity ranged from 0.94 to 1.0 using our hand search as reference, and 0.78 to 0.89 using the systematic reviews as reference. This latter performance measure even increased to around 0.95 (range 0.90 to 0.97) when either search filter was combined with the additional string that we developed. Retrieval rate of explorative prediction research was poor, both using our hand search or our systematic review as reference, and even combined with our additional search string: sensitivity ranged from 0.44 to 0.85. Conclusions/Significance: Explorative prediction research is difficult to find in Medline, using any of the currently available search filters. Yet, application of either the Ingui filter or the Haynes broad filter results in a very low number missed clinical prediction model studie

No Difference in Clinical Effects When Comparing Alfredson Eccentric and Silbernagel Combined Concentric-Eccentric Loading in Achilles Tendinopathy: A Randomized Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND: Alfredson isolated eccentric loading and Silbernagel concentric–eccentric loading have both shown beneficial effects on clinical symptoms in midportion Achilles tendinopathy (AT), but they have never been compared directly. PURPOSE: To test for differences in clinical effects at 1-year follow-up between Alfredson and Silbernagel loading in midportion AT. STUDY DESIGN: Randomized controlled trial; Level of evidence, 2. METHODS: A total of 40 recreational athletes were allocated to the Alfredson group (AG) or the Silbernagel group (SG). The primary outcome was the difference in the Victorian Institute of Sports Assessment–Achilles (VISA-A) at 1-year follow-up. Secondary outcomes were the visual analog scale for pain during activities of daily living (VAS-ADL) and sports activities (VAS–sports), the EuroQol 5 Dimensions instrument (EQ-5D), and global perceived effect score. Measurements were performed at baseline and 12-week, 26-week, and 1-year follow-up. Analysis was performed using a linear mixed-regression model with intervention (AG vs SG), time (12 weeks, 26 weeks, and 1 year postoperatively), and intervention-by-time interaction. RESULTS: The VISA-A score improved for both AG and SG, from 60.7 ± 17.1 at baseline to 89.4 ± 13.0 at 1-year follow-up and from 59.8 ± 22.2 to 83.2 ± 22.4, respectively (P < .001 for both). Because the interaction term did not significantly improve the model, we reported a treatment effect without interaction term, indicating a constant difference at each follow-up. The linear mixed model with correction for baseline VISA-A and confounders revealed a nonsignificant treatment effect (2.4 [95% CI, –8.5 to 13.3]; P = .656). In addition, after adjustment for the respective baseline values and confounders, nonsignificant treatment effects were found for the VAS-ADL (–2.0 [95% CI, –11.3 to 7.3]; P = .665) and VAS-sports (1.3 [95% CI, –12.8 to 15.3], P = .858). The EQ-5D subscales improved in both groups. After 1 year, significantly more SG participants considered themselves improved (77.3% [SG] vs 50.0% [AG]; P = .04). CONCLUSION: No differences in clinical effects were found between Alfredson and Silbernagel loading at up to 1-year follow-up. Both programs significantly improved clinical symptoms, and given their high adherence rates, offering either of them as a home-based program with limited supervision appears to be an effective treatment strategy for midportion AT. REGISTRATION: NTR5638 (Netherlands Trial Register number)