Определение интервалов квазистационарности экономических систем

В работе рассмотрен вопрос определения оптимального интервала адаптации алгоритма динамического управления капиталом для нестационарного случая методами расчета показателя Херста и построения автокорреляционной функции для анализа временных рядов. Проведен анализ влияния выбора интервала адаптации на эффективность алгоритма. Из анализа полученных результатов следует, что метод расчета показателя Херста позволяет более эффективно, чем метод построения автокорреляционной функции, определить интервал стационарности модели функционирования экономической системы.Робота присвячена питанню визначення оптимального інтервалу адаптації алгоритму динамічного керування капіталом для нестаціонарного випадку за допомогою методів розрахунку показника Херста і побудови автокореляційної функції задля аналізу часових рядів. Проведено аналіз впливу вибору інтервалу адаптації на ефективність алгоритму. Порівняння результатів проведеного аналізу дозволяє стверджувати, що метод розрахунку показника Херста дозволяє більш ефективно, ніж метод побудови автокореляційної функції, визначити інтервал стаціонарності моделі функціонування економічної системи

The reliability and validity of the juvenile idiopathic arthritis magnetic resonance scoring system for temporomandibular joints

In children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA), the temporomandibular joint (TMJ) can be involved. To prevent TMJ damage due to inflammation, early recognition is important, for which contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is the gold standard. In this study, the interobserver reliability and construct validity of the Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis Magnetic Resonance Scoring System for Temporomandibular Joints (JAMRIS-TMJ) was assessed. Two radiologists independently examined 38 MRIs using the JAMRIS-TMJ scoring system. Inter-observer reliability was assessed by Cohen's (weighted) kappa (κ), 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and absolute agreement (%). Construct validity was assessed by correlation between the JAMRIS-TMJ items and TMJ involvement, active maximum interincisal mouth opening (AMIO), and anterior maximum voluntary bite force (AMVBF). The interobserver reliability for the JAMRIS-TMJ items varied from poor to good (κ = 0.18-0.61). Joint enhancement had the highest reliability (κ = 0.61). Correlations were found between TMJ involvement, AMIO, and the JAMRIS-TMJ items, although variation between radiologists and TMJ side existed. No correlation was found between AMVBF and the JAMRIS-TMJ items for both radiologists. The strongest correlations were found between most of the JAMRIS-TMJ items and AMIO. Our findings support the utility of AMIO as a clinical measure of TMJ status in children with JIA

Anatomical Markers Associated With the Presence of Intracranial Aneurysms in Individuals Screened for Aneurysms

BACKGROUND Hemodynamic stress is linked to the development of intracranial aneurysms (IAs) and may be influenced by anatomic variation of intracranial arteries. We assessed diameters and bifurcation angles of intracranial arteries forming the circle of Willis in a cohort of individuals screened for the presence of IAs. METHODS Individuals with and without IAs identified at screening with magnetic resonance angiography were compared. Diameters and bifurcation angles of the following arteries were measured using semiautomatic methods: A1 and A2 segments of the anterior cerebral artery, M1 and M2 segments of the middle cerebral artery, P1 segments of the posterior cerebral artery, posterior communicating artery (Pcom), internal carotid artery, vertebral artery, and basilar artery. We employed univariate general linear models to assess group differences. This included subgroup comparisons between individuals with IAs at specific locations and matched controls, and comparisons on group level between individuals with and without IAs, corrected for age and sex. RESULTS In 94 of the 1049 individuals (9.0%) included, IAs were detected. Individuals with middle cerebral artery IAs had wider ipsilateral M2–M2 bifurcation angles compared with controls (121±25° versus 97±19°; P<0.01). Individuals with anterior communicating artery IAs showed smaller angles for the A1–A2 bifurcation (106±16° versus 120±17°; P = 0.02), while those with Pcom IAs had wider Pcom–C7 bifurcation angles (147±14° versus 127±17°; P = 0.02) and smaller diameters below the ipsilateral internal carotid artery top (2.86±0.36 mm versus 3.10±0.33 mm; P = 0.03) compared with controls. CONCLUSION We found associations between wider M2–M2 bifurcation angles or narrower A1–A2 bifurcation angles and IA presence, consistent with prior literature. Moreover, we uncovered previously unexplored associations, including wider Pcom–C7 bifurcation angles and smaller internal carotid artery diameters in individuals with Pcom IAs. Future research should explore the potential of these markers in predicting IAs in at‐risk populations during follow‐up screenings

Instructions for Authors

Nonadherence to medical therapy is frequently encountered in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). We aimed to identify predictors for future (non)adherence in IBD

Influence of pathogenic filaggrin variants on dupilumab treatment in atopic dermatitis

Background: Pathogenic variants in filaggrin (FLG) are associated with an increased risk of atopic dermatitis (AD). Objective: We evaluated the influence of FLG variants on the effectiveness of dupilumab treatment in AD. Methods: This prospective observational study included adult AD patients treated with dupilumab from the BioDay registry. FLG was analyzed with single-molecule molecular inversion probe–targeted sequencing. Novel mutations were confirmed by Sanger sequencing. Eczema Area and Severity Index (EASI), Investigator Global Assessment (IGA), numeric rating scale (NRS) pruritus, Dermatology Quality of Life Index (DLQI), and Patient-Oriented Eczema Measure (POEM) were assessed at baseline and at weeks 16 and 52. The study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov as NCT03549416. Results: Genetic analysis of the 285 included patients showed biallelic pathogenic variants (FLG−/−) in 41 (14%), monoallelic pathogenic variants (FLG−/+) in 64 (23%), and wild-type alleles (FLG+/+) in 180 patients (63%). Three novel pathogenic variants were found. We observed no clinically relevant differences in EASI, IGA, NRS pruritus, DLQI, or total POEM scores for patients with and without pathogenic FLG variants at all time points. The FLG−/− group showed significantly higher POEM flaking and dryness scores at week 16 (P < .001 and P = .002, respectively) and week 52 (P < .001 and P = .016, respectively) compared to FLG+/+ as well as significant differences compared to FLG−/+, while differences in delta scores were nonsignificant. Conclusion: The effectiveness of dupilumab treatment in AD patients was not influenced by pathogenic FLG variants. However, patients with biallelic pathogenic FLG variants tended to have drier skin before and during dupilumab treatment compared to patients with monoallelic pathogenic variants or wild-type alleles

Search Filters for Finding Prognostic and Diagnostic Prediction Studies in Medline to Enhance Systematic Reviews

Background: The interest in prognostic reviews is increasing, but to properly review existing evidence an accurate search filer for finding prediction research is needed. The aim of this paper was to validate and update two previously introduced search filters for finding prediction research in Medline: the Ingui filter and the Haynes Broad filter. Methodology/Principal Findings: Based on a hand search of 6 general journals in 2008 we constructed two sets of papers. Set 1 consisted of prediction research papers (n = 71), and set 2 consisted of the remaining papers (n = 1133). Both search filters were validated in two ways, using diagnostic accuracy measures as performance measures. First, we compared studies in set 1 (reference) with studies retrieved by the search strategies as applied in Medline. Second, we compared studies from 4 published systematic reviews (reference) with studies retrieved by the search filter as applied in Medline. Next -using word frequency methods - we constructed an additional search string for finding prediction research. Both search filters were good in identifying clinical prediction models: sensitivity ranged from 0.94 to 1.0 using our hand search as reference, and 0.78 to 0.89 using the systematic reviews as reference. This latter performance measure even increased to around 0.95 (range 0.90 to 0.97) when either search filter was combined with the additional string that we developed. Retrieval rate of explorative prediction research was poor, both using our hand search or our systematic review as reference, and even combined with our additional search string: sensitivity ranged from 0.44 to 0.85. Conclusions/Significance: Explorative prediction research is difficult to find in Medline, using any of the currently available search filters. Yet, application of either the Ingui filter or the Haynes broad filter results in a very low number missed clinical prediction model studie

The circadian clock remains intact, but with dampened hormonal output in heart failure

Background: Circadian (24-h) rhythms are important regulators in physiology and disease, but systemic disease may disrupt circadian rhythmicity. Heart failure (HF) is a systemic disease affecting hormonal regulation. We investigate whether HF affects the rhythmic expression of melatonin and cortisol, main endocrine products of the central clock, and cardiac-specific troponin in patients. We corroborate the functionality of the peripheral clock directly in the organs of translational models, inaccessible in human participants. Methods: We included 46 HF patients (71.7% male, median age of 60 years, NYHA class II (32.6%) or III (67.4%), ischemic cardiomyopathy (43.5%), comorbidities: diabetes 21.7%, atrial fibrillation 30.4%), and 24 matched controls. Blood was collected at seven time-points during a 24-h period (totalling 320 HF and 167 control samples) for melatonin, cortisol, and cardiac troponin T (cTnT) measurements after which circadian rhythms were assessed through cosinor analyses, both on the individual and the group level. Next, we analysed peripheral circadian clock functionality using cosinor analysis in male animal HF models: nocturnal mice and diurnal zebrafish, based on expression of core clock genes in heart, kidneys, and liver, every 4 h during a 24-h period in a light/darkness synchronised environment. Findings: Melatonin and cortisol concentrations followed a physiological 24-h pattern in both patients and controls. For melatonin, acrophase occurred during the night for both groups, with significantly decreased amplitude (median 5.2 vs 8.8, P = 0.0001) and circadian variation ([maximum]/[minimum]) in heart failure patients. For cortisol, mesor showed a significant increase for HF patients (mean 331.9 vs 275.1, P = 0.017) with a difference of 56.8 (95% CI 10.3–103.3) again resulting in a relatively lower variation: median 3.9 vs 6.3 (P = 0.0058). A nocturnal blood pressure dip was absent in 77.8% of HF patients. Clock gene expression profiles (Bmal, Clock, Per, Cry) were similar and with expected phase relations in animal HF models and controls, demonstrating preserved peripheral clock functionality in HF. Furthermore, oscillations in diurnal zebrafish were expectedly in opposite phases to those of nocturnal mice. Concordantly, cTnT concentrations in HF patients revealed significant circadian oscillations. Interpretation: Central clock output is dampened in HF patients while the molecular peripheral clock, as confirmed in animal models, remains intact. This emphasises the importance of taking timing into account in research and therapy for HF, setting the stage for another dimension of diagnostic, prognostic and therapeutic approaches. Funding: Hartstichting