Observational signatures of a non-singular bouncing cosmology

We study a cosmological scenario in which inflation is preceded by a bounce. In this scenario, the primordial singularity, one of the major shortcomings of inflation, is replaced by a non-singular bounce, prior to which the universe undergoes a phase of contraction. Our starting point is the bouncing cosmology investigated in Falciano et al. (2008), which we complete by a detailed study of the transfer of cosmological perturbations through the bounce and a discussion of possible observational effects of bouncing cosmologies. We focus on a symmetric bounce and compute the evolution of cosmological perturbations during the contracting, bouncing and inflationary phases. We derive an expression for the Mukhanov-Sasaki perturbation variable at the onset of the inflationary phase that follows the bounce. Rather than being in the Bunch-Davies vacuum, it is found to be in an excited state that depends on the time scale of the bounce. We then show that this induces oscillations superimposed on the nearly scale-invariant primordial spectra for scalar and tensor perturbations. We discuss the effects of these oscillations in the cosmic microwave background and in the matter power spectrum. We propose a new way to indirectly measure the spatial curvature energy density parameter in the context of this model.Comment: 40 pages, 5 figures, typos corrected and reference adde

Density growth in Kantowski-Sachs cosmologies with cosmological constant

In this work the growth of density perturbations in Kantowski-Sachs cosmologies with a positive cosmological constant is studied, using the 1+3 and 1+1+2 covariant formalisms. For each wave number we obtain a closed system for scalars formed from quantities that are zero on the background and hence are gauge-invariant. The solutions to this system are then analyzed both analytically and numerically. In particular the effects of anisotropy and the behaviour close to a bounce in the cosmic scale factor are considered. We find that typically the density gradient in the bouncing directions experiences a local maximum at or slightly after the bounce.Comment: 33 pages, 17 picture

Vulnerability to episodes of extreme weather: Butajira, Ethiopia, 1998–1999

BACKGROUND: During 1999-2000, great parts of Ethiopia experienced a period of famine which was recognised internationally. The aim of this paper is to characterise the epidemiology of mortality of the period, making use of individual, longitudinal population-based data from the Butajira demographic surveillance site and rainfall data from a local site. METHODS: Vital statistics and household data were routinely collected in a cluster sample of 10 sub-communities in the Butajira district in central Ethiopia. These were supplemented by rainfall and agricultural data from the national reporting systems. RESULTS: Rainfall was high in 1998 and well below average in 1999 and 2000. In 1998, heavy rains continued from April into October, in 1999 the small rains failed and the big rains lasted into the harvesting period. For the years 1998-1999, the mortality rate was 24.5 per 1,000 person-years, compared with 10.2 in the remainder of the period 1997-2001. Mortality peaks reflect epidemics of malaria and diarrhoeal disease. During these peaks, mortality was significantly higher among the poorer. CONCLUSIONS: The analyses reveal a serious humanitarian crisis with the Butajira population during 1998-1999, which met the CDC guideline crisis definition of more than one death per 10,000 per day. No substantial humanitarian relief efforts were triggered, though from the results it seems likely that the poorest in the farming communities are as vulnerable as the pastoralists in the North and East of Ethiopia. Food insecurity and reliance on subsistence agriculture continue to be major issues in this and similar rural communities. Epidemics of traditional infectious diseases can still be devastating, given opportunities in nutritionally challenged populations with little access to health care

Reconstruction of the equation of state for the cyclic universes in homogeneous and isotropic cosmology

We study the cosmological evolutions of the equation of state (EoS) for the universe in the homogeneous and isotropic Friedmann-Lema\^{i}tre-Robertson-Walker (FLRW) space-time. In particular, we reconstruct the cyclic universes by using the Weierstrass and Jacobian elliptic functions. It is explicitly illustrated that in several models the universe always stays in the non-phantom (quintessence) phase, whereas there also exist models in which the crossing of the phantom divide can be realized in the reconstructed cyclic universes.Comment: 29 pages, 8 figures, version accepted for publication in Central European Journal of Physic

Solidification of Al alloys under electromagnetic pulses and characterization of the 3D microstructures under synchrotron x-ray tomography

A novel programmable electromagnetic pulse device was developed and used to study the solidification of Al-15 pct Cu and Al-35 pct Cu alloys. The pulsed magnetic fluxes and Lorentz forces generated inside the solidifying melts were simulated using finite element methods, and their effects on the solidification microstructures were characterized using electron microscopy and synchrotron X-ray tomography. Using a discharging voltage of 120 V, a pulsed magnetic field with the peak Lorentz force of ~1.6 N was generated inside the solidifying Al-Cu melts which were showed sufficiently enough to disrupt the growth of the primary Al dendrites and the Al2Cu intermetallic phases. The microstructures exhibit a strong correlation to the characteristics of the applied pulse, forming a periodical pattern that resonates the frequency of the applied electromagnetic field

Thromboprophylaxis Is Associated With Reduced Post-hospitalization Venous Thromboembolic Events in Patients With Inflammatory Bowel Diseases

Background & Aims Patients with inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs) have increased risk for venous thromboembolism (VTE); those who require hospitalization have particularly high risk. Few hospitalized patients with IBD receive thromboprophylaxis. We analyzed the frequency of VTE after IBD-related hospitalization, risk factors for post-hospitalization VTE, and the efficacy of prophylaxis in preventing post-hospitalization VTE. Methods In a retrospective study, we analyzed data from a multi-institutional cohort of patients with Crohn's disease or ulcerative colitis and at least 1 IBD-related hospitalization. Our primary outcome was a VTE event. All patients contributed person-time from the date of the index hospitalization to development of VTE, subsequent hospitalization, or end of follow-up. Our main predictor variable was pharmacologic thromboprophylaxis. Cox proportional hazard models adjusting for potential confounders were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results From a cohort of 2788 patients with at least 1 IBD-related hospitalization, 62 patients developed VTE after discharge (2%). Incidences of VTE at 30, 60, 90, and 180 days after the index hospitalization were 3.7/1000, 4.1/1000, 5.4/1000, and 9.4/1000 person-days, respectively. Pharmacologic thromboprophylaxis during the index hospital stay was associated with a significantly lower risk of post-hospitalization VTE (HR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.22–0.97). Increased numbers of comorbidities (HR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.16–1.47) and need for corticosteroids before hospitalization (HR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.02–2.87) were also independently associated with risk of VTE. Length of hospitalization or surgery during index hospitalization was not associated with post-hospitalization VTE. Conclusions Pharmacologic thromboprophylaxis during IBD-related hospitalization is associated with reduced risk of post-hospitalization VTE.National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (U54-LM008748

Normalization of Plasma 25-Hydroxy Vitamin D Is Associated with Reduced Risk of Surgery in Crohn’s Disease

available in PMC 2014 August 01AB Background: Vitamin D may have an immunologic role in Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC). Retrospective studies suggested a weak association between vitamin D status and disease activity but have significant limitations. Methods: Using a multi-institution inflammatory bowel disease cohort, we identified all patients with CD and UC who had at least one measured plasma 25-hydroxy vitamin D (25(OH)D). Plasma 25(OH)D was considered sufficient at levels >=30 ng/mL. Logistic regression models adjusting for potential confounders were used to identify impact of measured plasma 25(OH)D on subsequent risk of inflammatory bowel disease-related surgery or hospitalization. In a subset of patients where multiple measures of 25(OH)D were available, we examined impact of normalization of vitamin D status on study outcomes. Results: Our study included 3217 patients (55% CD; mean age, 49 yr). The median lowest plasma 25(OH)D was 26 ng/mL (interquartile range, 17-35 ng/mL). In CD, on multivariable analysis, plasma 25(OH)D =30 ng/mL. Similar estimates were also seen for UC. Furthermore, patients with CD who had initial levels <30 ng/mL but subsequently normalized their 25(OH)D had a reduced likelihood of surgery (odds ratio, 0.56; 95% confidence interval, 0.32-0.98) compared with those who remained deficient. Conclusion: Low plasma 25(OH)D is associated with increased risk of surgery and hospitalizations in both CD and UC, and normalization of 25(OH)D status is associated with a reduction in the risk of CD-related surgery. (C) Crohn's & Colitis Foundation of America, Inc