Seasonal unit root tests for the monthly container transshipment of the port of Hamburg

This paper investigates the seasonal behaviour of monthly container transshipment data of the port of Hamburg. The test procedures of Franses and Beaulieu-Miron are used to examine the presence of multiple unit roots in the monthly seasonal frequencies. This is followed by the Canova-Hansen procedure for testing the stability of the seasonal patterns. Evidence suggests that these monthly transshipment data are non-stationary at frequency zero and have no seasonal unit roots. The analysis shows that the process is in the long run integrated of order one and that the seasonal variations can be modelled by dummy variables. Using the deterministic seasonality found here, further analysis and forecasting of container throughput of the port of Hamburg can be improved for market participants like containership lines. -- Die Analyse betrachtet das saisonale Muster des monatlichen Containerumschlags im Hamburger Hafen von 1993 bis 2008. Dabei werden die Tests von Franses und Beaulieu-Miron zur Prüfung auf multiple Einheitswurzeln und von Canova-Hansen zur Stabilitätsprüfung der saisonalen Schwankungen benutzt. Es zeigt sich, dass im betrachteten Zeitraum der Containerumschlag nichtstationär bei Frequenz Null ist und keine saisonale Einheitswurzeln vorliegen. Die Daten sind integriert vom Grad Eins (stochastischer Trend), und die saisonalen Variationen lassen sich durch Dummy-Variable modellieren. Diese Ergebnisse können bei der Analyse und Prognose des Containerumschlags im Hamburger Hafen für Marktteilnehmer, wie z.B. Reedereien oder Hafengesellschaften, nützlich sein.

Agriculture in Transformation: The Restructuring of Farm Enter in Central and Eastern European Countries during the Transition Process

Ten years of transition processes in the former communist countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEEC) have changed the ownership structure as well as the structures and legal forms of enterprises in agriculture considerably. The farm structures in Eastern Europe developed under the influence of various collectivisation models. These influenced the course of the transformation process and therefore the development of new entrepreneurial and farm structures to a great extent. In addition also the effects of other political, social and economic factors with different weights can be noticed in the individual countries. Considering labour organisation and relation to markets, four different types of farm enterprises have evolved in the Central European and East European states during the transformation process: (a) Family farms for a mere self-sufficiency (Subsistence farms) (b) Family farms with a predominant orientation towards the market (c) Market-oriented joined family farms (d) Market-oriented farms with hired labour In the future farms and agricultural enterprises of all different types can have good prospects and therefore also the different sizes connected with them. For this reason the same should be valid for all types of farms and in the long term competition should decide, which types are going to compete. The preference or discrimination of a certain type by the agrarian policy needs to be avoided. The state also needs to develop the infrastructure in rural areas, to improve the prospects of farms that are deprived in this respect.Farm Management,

Obstacles to Environmental Progress: A U.S. perspective

Why, when so many people understand the severity of environmental problems, is progress so slow and sustainability such a distant goal? What gets in the way? Perhaps you have immediately thought of several barriers. In Obstacles to Environmental Progress, Peter Schulze identifies 18 practical obstacles that routinely and predictably hinder U.S. progress on existing environmental problems. The obstacles apply to problems small and large and, in most cases, regardless of whether an issue is controversial. Though the book focuses on the U.S., most of the obstacles pertain elsewhere as well. The obstacles fall into three categories: scientific challenges to anticipating and detecting problems; political and economic factors that interfere with responding; and obstacles to effective responses. While all the obstacles are predictable and common, they have not been systematically studied as related phenomena, perhaps because they span a wide range of academic disciplines. In practice, they often arise as surprises that are then addressed in an ad hoc manner. Might they be better understood and thus more readily anticipated and overcome or avoided? The book seeks to hasten environmental progress by forewarning and thus forearming those who are striving or will soon be striving for environmental progress, and by drawing scholarly attention to the obstacles as a set of related phenomena to systematically understand and more quickly overcome. Praise for Obstacles to Environmental Progress: ‘I have never come across another book that gives students such an accessible and helpful guide to the broad scope of the challenges facing an environmentally sound and sustainable future.’ Al Wurth, Lehigh University ‘We’ve long needed something like this: a gazetteer for answering the endless series of objections and overcoming the repetitive obstacles that stand between us and the environmental progress we urgently require.’ Bill McKibben, author of The End of Nature and founder of 350.org and Third Ac

Obstacles to Environmental Progress

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Steigende Skalenerträge und regionales Wachstum: Eine quantitative Analyse mit kleinräumigen Daten

Kaldor hat verschiedene Hypothesen, die wirtschaftliches Wachstum erklären sollen und die Beziehungen zwischen Output, Beschäftigung und Produktivität im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe herstellen, diskutiert. Diese Ansätze werden anhand von Kreisdaten der Bundesländer Hessen, Nordrhein-Westfalen, Rheinland-Pfalz und Saarland für 1980 - 92 mittels Schätzverfahren, die auch räumliche Autokorrelation zulassen, überprüft. Insbesondere für die „Verdoorn’sche Gesetzmäßigkeit“ (2. Kaldorhypothese: Wachstumsrate der Beschäftigung als Funktion der Wachstumsrate des Outputs) kann eine funktionale Abhängigkeit mit steigenden Skalenerträgen bei Beeinflussung durch die Beschäftigung benachbarter Regionen nachgewiesen werden. -- Kaldor’s Laws, regarding relationships between output, employment and productivity in manufacturing are estimated with Kreis-data of the Bundesländer Hessen, Nordrhein- Westfalen, Rheinland-Pfalz and Saarland between 1980-92 by estimation methods considering the presence of spatial autocorrelation. Especially the relation „employment as a function of output“ with increasing returns to scale is empirically supported and the influence of the growth rates of employment in neighbouring regions can be shown.

Eine Investitionsfunktion für Rheinland-Pfalz. Kointegration bei Strukturbrüchen?

Zur Schätzung einer rheinland-pfälzischen Investitionsfunktion werden Zeitreihendaten der Variablen Bruttoanlageinvestitionen, Bruttoinlandsprodukt und der Quotient aus Lohnquote und Kapitalnutzungskosten benutzt. Da die Daten Strukturbrüche aufweisen, sollte bei Einheitswurzeltests dieser Sachverhalt berücksichtigt werden. Hier wird der Test von Perron (1989) benutzt; alle Variablen erweisen sich als differenzstationär 1. Ordnung. Für die Prüfung auf Kointegration dienen die von Gregory/Hansen (1996) weiterentwickelten Tests von Dickey-Fuller und Phillips-Perron. Die Nullhypothese Keine Kointegration lässt sich nicht ablehnen, weshalb abschließend die Investitionsfunktion in ihrer Differenzform geschätzt wird. -- In time series data with structural breaks modified unit root tests, e.g. the test of Perron (1989), should be used. Analyzing an investment function of the federal state "Rhineland-Palatinate" with data of investment expenditures, gross domestic product, and the relation of wage rate to capital user costs from 1970 to 2006, it can be shown that these variables are difference stationary of order one. For cointegration relations when there is a break in the intercept and/or slope coefficient also modified tests of Dickey-Fuller or Phillips-Perron can be used. For the data used, the null hypothesis of no cointegration can not be rejected by the Gregory-Hansen test. As a result, an investment function for Rhineland-Palatinate in difference form is estimated.

Kurzfristprognosen des Containerumschlags für Deutschland und Hamburg: ein SARIMA-Ansatz

Ziel der Analyse ist die Kurzfristprognose des deutsche (seewärtigen) Containerumschlags für Deutschland insgesamt, seine wichtigsten Fahrtgebiete (Europa, Asien, Nordamerika) und für den wichtigsen deutschen Seehafen Hamburg. Methodischer Ansatz ist ein SARIMA-Modell, dessen vorläufige Identifikation mittels Autokorrelations- und partieller Autokorrelations-Funktion erfolgt. Die Stationarität der verwendeten Daten wird zusätzlich anhand des HEGY-Tests überprüft. Es ergeben sich SARIMA(0,10)(1,1,0)-Ansätze für den deutschen Containerumschlag insgesamt (Welt), Hamburg und das Fahrtgebiet Europa sowie (1,1,0)(1,1,0)-Identifikationen für Asien und Nordamerika. Punkt- und Intervallprognosen werden für die Quartale in den Jahren 2008 und 2009 erstellt, wobei sich durch stark differrierende Intervalle in den verschiedenen Segmenten unterschiedliche Genauigkeiten bzgl. der Prognosen zeigen. -- In this paper the container transshipment of Germany worldwide, its main destinations (Europe, Asia, North-America) and Hamburg, Germanys most important seaport, is analysed by seasonal ARIMA-models and this is taken for shortrun forecasting. For preliminary identification autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions and for the examination of stationarity the HEGY-test is used. Quarterly point- and intervalvalues for the years 2008 and 2009 are estimated with different precision in the various destinations.

Phototrophic microalgal cultivation in cold and light-limited environments

Doctoral thesis (PhD) - Nord University, 2019publishedVersio