Combining Biophysical and Price Simulations to Assess the Economics of Long-Term Crop Rotations

Biophysical simulation models (e.g. APSIM) using historical rainfall data are increasingly being used to provide yield and other data on crop rotations in various regions of Australia. However, to analyse the economics of these rotations it is desirable to incorporate the other main driver of profitability, price variation. Because the context was that APSIM was being used to simulate an existing trial site being monitored by a farmer group Gross Margin output was considered most appropriate. Long-run rotational gross margins were calculated for the various rotations with yields (and other physical outputs) derived from APSIM simulations over a period of 100+ years and prices simulated in @Risk based on subjective triangular price distributions elicited from farmers in the group. Rotations included chickpeas, cotton, lucerne, sorghum, wheat and different lengths of fallow. Output presented to the farmers included mean annual gross margins and distributions of gross margins presented as probability distributions, cumulative probability distributions and box and whisker plots. Cotton rotations were the most profitable but had greater declines in soil fertility and greater drainage out of the root zone.Crop Production/Industries,

Combining biophysical and price simulations to assess the economics of long-term crop rotations

Long-run rotational gross margins were calculated with yields derived from biophysical simulations in APSIM over a period of 100+ years and prices simulated in @Risk based on subjective triangular price distributions elicited from the Jimbour Plains farmer group. Rotations included chickpeas, cotton, lucerne, sorghum, wheat and different lengths of fallow. Output presented to the farmers included mean annual GMs and distributions of GMs with box and whisker plots found to be suitable. Mean-standard deviation and first and second-degree stochastic dominance efficiency measures were also calculated. Including lucerne in the rotations improved some sustainability indicators but reduced profitability.Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management,

Conversion Efficacy and Safety of Intravenous Ibutilide Compared With Intravenous Procainamide in Patients With Atrial Flutter or Fibrillation 11This study was sponsored by Pharmacia & Upjohn, Kalamazoo, Michigan.22See Appendix Afor a complete list of investigators and study sites.

AbstractObjectives. This multicenter study compared the efficacy and safety of ibutilide versus procainamide for conversion of recent-onset atrial flutter or fibrillation.Background. Ibutilide fumarate is an intravenous (IV) class III antiarrhythmic agent that has been shown to be significantly more effective than placebo in the pharmacologic conversion of atrial flutter and fibrillation to sinus rhythm. Procainamide is commonly used for conversion of recent-onset atrial fibrillation to normal sinus rhythm.Methods. One hundred twenty-seven patients (age range 22 to 92 years) with atrial flutter or fibrillation of 3 h to 90 days’ (mean 21 days) duration were randomized to receive either two 10-min IV infusions of 1 mg of ibutilide fumarate, separated by a 10-min infusion of 5% dextrose in sterile water, or three successive 10-min IV infusions of 400 mg of procainamide hydrochloride.Results. Of the 127 patients, 120 were evaluated for efficacy: 35 (58.3%) of 60 in the ibutilide group compared with 11 (18.3%) of 60 in the procainamide group had successful termination within 1.5 h of treatment (p < 0.0001). Seven patients were found to have violated the protocol and were not included in the final evaluation. In the patients with atrial flutter, ibutilide had a significantly higher success rate than procainamide (76% [13 of 17] vs. 14% [3 of 22], p = 0.001). Similarly, in the atrial fibrillation group, ibutilide had a significantly higher success rate than procainamide (51% [22 of 43] vs. 21% [8 of 38], p = 0.005). One patient who received ibutilide, which was found to be a protocol violation, had sustained polymorphic ventricular tachycardia requiring direct current cardioversion. Seven patients who received procainamide became hypotensive.Conclusions. This study establishes the superior efficacy of ibutilide over procainamide when administered to patients to convert either atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter to sinus rhythm. Hypotension was the major adverse effect seen with procainamide. A low incidence of serious proarrhythmia was seen with the administration of ibutilide occurring at the end of infusion

Scope for improved eco-efficiency varies among diverse cropping systems

Global food security requires eco-efficient agriculture to produce the required food and fiber products concomitant with ecologically efficient use of resources. This eco-efficiency concept is used to diagnose the state of agricultural production in China (irrigated wheat–maize double-cropping systems), Zimbabwe (rainfed maize systems), and Australia (rainfed wheat systems). More than 3,000 surveyed crop yields in these three countries were compared against simulated grain yields at farmer-specified levels of nitrogen (N) input. Many Australian commercial wheat farmers are both close to existing production frontiers and gain little prospective return from increasing their N input. Significant losses of N from their systems, either as nitrous oxide emissions or as nitrate leached from the soil profile, are infrequent and at low intensities relative to their level of grain production. These Australian farmers operate close to eco-efficient frontiers in regard to N, and so innovations in technologies and practices are essential to increasing their production without added economic or environmental risks. In contrast, many Chinese farmers can reduce N input without sacrificing production through more efficient use of their fertilizer input. In fact, there are real prospects for the double-cropping systems on the North China Plain to achieve both production increases and reduced environmental risks. Zimbabwean farmers have the opportunity for significant production increases by both improving their technical efficiency and increasing their level of input; however, doing so will require improved management expertise and greater access to institutional support for addressing the higher risks. This paper shows that pathways for achieving improved eco-efficiency will differ among diverse cropping systems

Food and agricultural innovation pathways for prosperity

This introduction to the special issue deploys a framework, inspired by realist synthesis and introduced in Section 1, that aims to untangle the contexts, mechanisms, and outcomes associated with investments that link poverty reduction and rural prosperity within a broad agri-food systems perspective. Section 2 considers changes in contexts: Where are agricultural research investments most likely to be an engine of poverty reduction? Over the past 25 years, there have been profound changes in the development context of most countries, necessitating an update on strategic insights for research investment priorities relevant for the economic, political, social, environmental, and structural realities of the early 21st Century. Section 2 briefly surveys changes in these structural aspects of poverty and development processes in low-income countries, with particular attention to new drivers (e.g., urbanization, climate change) that will be of increasing salience in the coming decades. In Section 3, we turn to mechanisms: What are the plausible impact pathways and what evidence exists to test their plausibility? Poor farmers in the developing world are often the stated focus of public sector agricultural research. However, farmers are not the only potential beneficiaries of agricultural research; rural landless laborers, stakeholders along food value chains, and the urban poor can also be major beneficiaries of such research. Thus, there are multiple, interacting pathways through which agricultural research can contribute to reductions in poverty and associated livelihood vulnerabilities. This paper introduces an ex ante set of 18 plausible impact pathways from agricultural research to rural prosperity outcomes, employing bibliometric methods to assess the evidence underpinning causal links. In Section 4, we revisit the concept of desired impacts: When we seek poverty reduction, what does that mean and what measures are needed to demonstrate impact? The papers in this special issue are intended to yield insights to inform improvements in agricultural research that seeks to reduce poverty. History indicates that equity of distribution of gains matters hugely, and thus the questions of “who wins?” and “who loses?” must be addressed. Moreover, our understanding(s) of “poverty” and the intended outcomes of development investments have become much richer over the past 25 years, incorporating more nuance regarding gender, community differences, and fundamental reconsideration of the meaning of poverty and prosperity that are not captured by simple head count income or even living standard measures

Tune in to your emotions: a robust personalized affective music player

The emotional power of music is exploited in a personalized affective music player (AMP) that selects music for mood enhancement. A biosignal approach is used to measure listeners’ personal emotional reactions to their own music as input for affective user models. Regression and kernel density estimation are applied to model the physiological changes the music elicits. Using these models, personalized music selections based on an affective goal state can be made. The AMP was validated in real-world trials over the course of several weeks. Results show that our models can cope with noisy situations and handle large inter-individual differences in the music domain. The AMP augments music listening where its techniques enable automated affect guidance. Our approach provides valuable insights for affective computing and user modeling, for which the AMP is a suitable carrier application

SPRING: an RCT study of probiotics in the prevention of gestational diabetes mellitus in overweight and obese women

Background: Obesity is increasing in the child-bearing population as are the rates of gestational diabetes. Gestational diabetes is associated with higher rates of Cesarean Section for the mother and increased risks of macrosomia, higher body fat mass, respiratory distress and hypoglycemia for the infant. Prevention of gestational diabetes through life style intervention has proven to be difficult. A Finnish study showed that ingestion of specific probiotics altered the composition of the gut microbiome and thereby metabolism from early gestation and decreased rates of gestational diabetes in normal weight women. In SPRING (the Study of Probiotics IN the prevention of Gestational diabetes), the effectiveness of probiotics ingestion for the prevention of gestational diabetes will be assessed in overweight and obese women

Body composition at birth and its relationship with neonatal anthropometric ratios: the newborn body composition study of the INTERGROWTH-21(st) project.

Background We aimed to describe newborn body composition and identify which anthropometric ratio (weight/length; BMI; or ponderal index, PI) best predicts fat mass (FM) and fat-free mass (FFM). Methods Air-displacement plethysmography (PEA POD) was used to estimate FM, FFM, and body fat percentage (BF%). Associations between FFM, FM, and BF% and weight/length, BMI, and PI were evaluated in 1,019 newborns using multivariate regression analysis. Charts for FM, FFM, and BF% were generated using a prescriptive subsample (n=247). Standards for the best-predicting anthropometric ratio were calculated utilizing the same population used for the INTERGROWTH-21(st) Newborn Size Standards (n=20,479). Results FFM and FM increased consistently during late pregnancy. Differential FM, BF%, and FFM patterns were observed for those born preterm (34(+0)-36(+6) weeks' gestation) and with impaired intrauterine growth. Weight/length by gestational age (GA) was a better predictor of FFM and FM (adjusted R(2)=0.92 and 0.71, respectively) than BMI or PI, independent of sex, GA, and timing of measurement. Results were almost identical when only preterm newborns were studied. We present sex-specific centiles for weight/length ratio for GA. Conclusions Weight/length best predicts newborn FFM and FM. There are differential FM, FFM, and BF% patterns by sex, GA, and size at birth