Weather Extremes in a Warming Climate

Seit der industriellen Revolution haben Menschen durch Verbrennung von fossilen Energieträgern die Treibhausgaskonzentration in der Atmosphäre erhöht. Die daraus folgende Erderwärmung hat weitreichende Folgen für das Klima, unter anderem häufigere und intensivere Wetterextreme. Wegen ihrer gravierenden Auswirkungen auf die Gesellschaft, ist es von allgemeinem Interesse zu verstehen, wie der menschengemachte Klimawandel diese Wetterextreme beeinflusst. In dieser kumulativen Dissertation analysiere ich erst zwei komplexe Wettereignisse, die die Nahrungsmittelproduktion in Europa beeinträchtigen: Frosttage nach dem Beginn der Apfelblüte und Feuchte Frühsommerperioden nach warmen Wintern. In einer dritten Studie untersuche ich wie dynamische Klimaveränderungen in den mittleren Breiten der Nordhalbkugel zu beständigerem Sommerwetter beitragen. Schließlich beschäftige ich mich mit tropischen Stürmen im Nordatlantik und damit, wie sie von der globalen Erwärmung beeinflusst werden. Eine zentrale methodische Herausforderung in diesem Forschungsfeld ist, dass Wetterextreme per Definition selten sind und dass es aufgrund der starken internen Klimavariabilität schwierig ist, die Veränderungen zu quantifizieren, die auf den menschgemachten Klimawandel zurück zu führen sind. In dieser Arbeit verfolge ich zweigegenläufige Ansätze um mit dieser Herausforderung um zu gehen: 1) Ich verwende große Klimasimulationsensembles um den Effekt der internen Klimavariabilität aus zu glätten und dadurch die erzwungenen Veränderungen beim Apfelfrost und in der Persistenz zu ergründen. 2) Mit Methoden, die auf Beobachtungsdaten beruhen, quantifiziere ich den Einfluss der internen Klimavariabilität auf tropische Zyklone um dann einschätzen zu können, in welchem Maß der beobachtete Anstieg der tropischen Zyklonaktivität im Atlantik der internen Klimavariabilität oder erzwungenen Veränderungen zugeschrieben werden kann.Since the industrial revolution, humans have increased the greenhouse gas concentration of the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels. The resulting global warming has far reaching impacts on the climate system including increasingly frequent and intense weather extremes. Due to the severe impacts these weather extremes cause to societies, there is a strong interest in understanding how anthropogenic climate change affects weather extremes. In this cumulative thesis I first study two compound weather extremes that affect food production in Europe: frost days after apple blossom and wet early summers after warm winters. In a third study I quantify how dynamic changes in the climate system contribute to more persistent summer weather extremes in the northern hemispheric mid-latitudes. Finally, I analyze tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin and changes in tropical cyclone activity as a result of global warming. One central methodological challenge in the research field is that weather extremes are rare by definition and that due to the strong internal climate variability it is difficult to quantify changes that are forced by anthropogenic climate change. In this thesis I explore two divergent approaches to this challenge: 1) Using large ensemble climate simulations I smooth out the effect of internal variability thereby exposing the forced change in apple frost and weather persistence. 2) Using observation based approaches, I quantify the contributions of internal climate variability on tropical cyclones in order to subsequently estimate to which extent the observed increase in tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic can be attributed to internal climate variability or forced changes

Fallacies, Irrelevant Facts, and Myths in the Discussion of Capital Regulation: Why Bank Equity is Not Expensive

We examine the pervasive view that “equity is expensive,” which leads to claims that high capital requirements are costly and would affect credit markets adversely. We find that arguments made to support this view are either fallacious, irrelevant, or very weak. For example, the return on equity contains a risk premium that must go down if banks have more equity. It is thus incorrect to assume that the required return on equity remains fixed as capital requirements increase. It is also incorrect to translate higher taxes paid by banks to a social cost. Policies that subsidize debt and indirectly penalize equity through taxes and implicit guarantees are distortive. Any desirable public subsidies to banks’ activities should be given directly and not in ways that encourage leverage. Finally, suggestions that high leverage serves a necessary disciplining role are based on inadequate theory lacking empirical support. We conclude that bank equity is not socially expensive, and that high leverage is not necessary for banks to perform all their socially valuable functions, including lending, taking deposits and issuing money-like securities. To the contrary, better capitalized banks suffer fewer distortions in lending decisions and would perform better. The fact that banks choose high leverage does not imply that this is socially optimal, and, viewed from an ex ante perspective, high leverage may not even be privately optimal for banks. Setting equity requirements significantly higher than the levels currently proposed would entail large social benefits and minimal, if any, social costs. Approaches based on equity dominate alternatives, including contingent capital. To achieve better capitalization quickly and efficiently and prevent disruption to lending, regulators must actively control equity payouts and issuance. If remaining challenges are addressed, capital regulation can be a powerful tool for enhancing the role of banks in the economy.capital regulation, financial institutions, capital structure, too big to fail, systemic risk, bank equity, contingent capital, Basel.

Increasing risks of apple tree frost damage under climate change

Anthropogenic climate change is affecting agriculture and crop production. The responses of horticultural and agricultural systems to changing climatic conditions can be non-linear and at times counter-intuitive. Depending on the characteristics of the system, the actual impact can arise as a result of a combination of climate hazards or compound events. Here, we show that compound events can lead to increased risk of frost damage for apple fruit trees in Germany in a 2 °C warmer world of up to 10% relative to present day. Although the absolute number of frost days is declining, warmer winters also lead to earlier blossom of fruit trees, which in turn can lead to regionally dependent increased risks of the occurrence of frost days after apple blossom. In southern Germany, warmer winters may also lead to an increase in years in which apple yield is negatively affected by a lack of sufficient amount of cold days to trigger the seasonal response of the trees. Our results show how cropping system responses to seasonal climate can lead to unexpected effects of increased risk of frost damage as a result of warmer winters. An improved understanding of ecosystem responses to changes in climate signals is important to fully assess the impacts of climate change. © 2019, The Author(s)

Konstruktion der Zukunft und Gebrauch der Zukunft: Risiko als Gelegenheit

Costruzione del futuro e uso del futuro. Il rischio come opportunit\ue

Turn-key module for neutron scattering with sub-micro-eV resolution

We report the development of a compact turn-key module that boosts the resolution in quasi-elastic neutron scattering by several orders of magnitude down to the low sub-micro-eV range. It is based on a pair of neutron resonance spin flippers that generate a well defined temporal intensity modulation, also known as MIEZE (Modulation of IntEnsity by Zero Effort). The module may be used under versatile conditions, in particular in applied magnetic fields and for depolarising and incoherently scattering samples. We demonstrate the power of MIEZE in studies of the helimagnetic order in MnSi under applied magnetic fields

Field dependence of non-reciprocal magnons in chiral MnSi

Spin waves in chiral magnetic materials are strongly influenced by the Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya interaction resulting in intriguing phenomena like non-reciprocal magnon propagation and magnetochiral dichroism. Here, we study the non-reciprocal magnon spectrum of the archetypical chiral magnet MnSi and its evolution as a function of magnetic field covering the field-polarized and conical helix phase. Using inelastic neutron scattering, the magnon energies and their spectral weights are determined quantitatively after deconvolution with the instrumental resolution. In the field-polarized phase the imaginary part of the dynamical susceptibility $\chi''(\varepsilon, {\bf q})$ is shown to be asymmetric with respect to wavevectors ${\bf q}$ longitudinal to the applied magnetic field ${\bf H}$, which is a hallmark of chiral magnetism. In the helimagnetic phase, $\chi''(\varepsilon, {\bf q})$ becomes increasingly symmetric with decreasing ${\bf H}$ due to the formation of helimagnon bands and the activation of additional spinflip and non-spinflip scattering channels. The neutron spectra are in excellent quantitative agreement with the low-energy theory of cubic chiral magnets with a single fitting parameter being the damping rate of spin waves.Comment: Paper: 10 pages, 5 figures Supplement: 8 pages, 11 figure

Optical floating zone growth of high-quality Cu2MnAl single crystals

We report the growth of large single-crystals of Cu2MnAl, a ferromagnetic Heusler compound suitable for polarizing neutron monochromators, by means of optical floating zone under ultra-high vacuum compatible conditions. Unlike Bridgman or Czochralsky grown Cu2MnAl, our floating zone grown single-crystals show highly reproducible magnetic properties and an excellent crystal quality with a narrow and homogeneous mosaic spread as examined by neutron diffraction. An investigation of the polarizing properties in neutron scattering suggests a high polarization efficiency, limited by the relatively small sample dimensions studied. Our study identifies optical floating zone under ultra-high vacuum compatible conditions as a highly reproducible method to grow high-quality single-crystals of Cu2MnAl.Comment: 19 pages, 11 figure

Spin-resolved fermi surface of the localized ferromagnetic Heusler compound Cu2MnAl measured with spin-polarized positron annihilation

We determined the bulk electronic structure in the prototypical Heusler compound Cu$_2$MnAl by measuring the Angular Correlation of Annihilation Radiation (2D-ACAR) using spin-polarized positrons. To this end, a new algorithm for reconstructing 3D densities from projections is introduced that allows us to corroborate the excellent agreement between our electronic structure calculations and the experimental data. The contribution of each individual Fermi surface sheet to the magnetization was identified, and summed to a total spin magnetic moment of $3.6\,\pm\,0.5\,\mu_B/\mathrm{f.u.}$

Non-reciprocal magnons in non-centrosymmetric MnSi

Using two cold-neutron triple-axis spectrometers we have succeeded in fully mapping out the field-dependent evolution of the non-reciprocal magnon dispersion relations in all magnetic phases of MnSi. The non-reciprocal nature of the dispersion manifests itself in a full asymmetry (non-reciprocity) of the dynamical structure factor $S(q, E, \mu_0 H_{int})$ with respect to flipping either the direction of the applied magnetic field $\mu_0 H_{int}$, the reduced momentum transfer $q$, or the energy transfer $E$.Comment: Contribution to the International Conference on Magnetism 2018. 5 pages, 4 figure