Empirical-deterministic prediction of disease and losses caused by Cercospora leaf spots in sugar beets

Neben einer Negativ-Prognose des Epidemiebeginns, epidemieorientierten Bekämpfungsschwellen (BK) und einer wirtschaftlichen Schadensschwelle (WS) beinhaltet das Quaternäre IPS (Integriertes Pflanzenschutz)-Konzept zur Kontrolle des Cercospora-Befalls eine Verlustprognose. Die Verlustprognose erhält ihren praktischen Sinn dadurch, dass die epidemischen Stadien von BK und WS ein Intervall von 5–10 Wochen beinhalten. Die Befallsstärke (BS) zum Zeitpunkt von BK beträgt 0,01%, hingegen toleriert die Zuckerrübe 5% BS ohne wirtschaftlichen Schaden. Die Verlustprognose trifft daher Vorhersagen, ob der künftige Befallsverlauf die WS zum Erntezeitpunkt überschreiten wird und insofern, ob Bekämpfungsmaßnahmen benötigt werden. Das Modell ist als empirisch zu charakterisieren, nachdem die Herleitung der Verlustprognose auf 105 Feldstudien (Deutschland und Österreich) einer Epidemie von Cercospora beticola und ihren ertraglichen Konsequenzen beruht. Des Weiteren ist das Modell deterministisch, weil die Krankheitssituation zum gegenwärtigen Zeitpunkt die Prognose der zukünftigen Befallsentwicklung determiniert. In jeglicher Feldstudie implizierte der Epidemieverlauf eine Phase geringer Progression der BS, gefolgt von einem steilen Anstieg mit Tendenz zu einem Maximum des Befalls. Die Prognose des Befallsverlaufes in Submodul (i) basiert daher auf der sigmoiden Funktion „BS = BSmax/(1+exp(-(CW-a)/b))“. Demnach hängt die Kalkulation von BS von der Kalenderwoche (CW) und den Variablen BSmax, a und b ab. Letztere werden geschätzt mittels mathematischer Funktionen in Abhängigkeit vom Epidemiebeginn (CWBH5%), definiert als jene Kalenderwoche, zu der eine Befallshäufigkeit (BH) der Blätter von ≥5% eintritt. Die Verluste sind hierbei abhängig von der Fläche unter der Befallskurve (AUDPC). Für die Kalkulation der AUDPC-Werte finden die BS-Werte Verwendung, wie mit Submodul (i) geschätzt. Die Prognose von Verlusten an Rüben- und Bereinigtem Zuckerertrag geschieht auf Basis von Befalls-Verlust-Relationen (Submodul ii, iii). Die wirtschaftliche Schadensschwelle ist definiert als AUDPC=1, entsprechend einem Verlust an Bereinigtem Zuckerertrag von ≉1,5%. Folglich sind Fungizidapplikationen entbehrlich, sofern der Befall bis zur Ernte <AUDPC=1 verbleibt. Alle Berechnungen zur Modellentwicklung haben die Sorten-Anfälligkeiten „hoch“ und „gering“ berücksichtigt. Darüber hinaus benötigt die Verlustprognose Angaben über den zu erwartenden Ertrag und den voraussichtlichen Erntetermin. Diagnose und Erhebung des Befalls sind Voraussetzungen für die Anwendung des Modells, da die Einschätzung der zukünftigen Entwicklung auf einer Konkretisierung der gegenwärtigen Krankheitssituation gründet.Besides negative-prognosis of epidemic onset, epidemic spraying thresholds (ET) and economic damage threshold (DT), loss prediction is a part of the Quaternary IPM (Integrated Pest Management)-concept to control Cercospora leaf spots (CLS). The practical need of loss prediction originates from the fact, that disease levels of ET and DT implicate an interval of 5–10 weeks. Disease severity (DS) of ET for an initial treatment is 0.01, whereas the beet plant may tolerate 5% DS without economic losses. Therefore, in order to assess the necessity of control measures, the model is focused on to predict whether DS will exceed DT at harvest time. The model is empiric, because loss prediction was derived from epidemic and yield data of 105 field trials conducted in Germany and Austria (1993-2000). The model is also deterministic, because the disease incidence at present date and cultivar susceptibility determine the prediction of future disease progress. In every field study, course of DS involved a period of slight followed by a more or less steep increase tending to a maximum of DS. The incidence prediction in submodel (i), therefore, was based on the sigmoidal function “DS = DSmax/(1+exp(-(CW-a)/b))”, where the calculation of DS is depending on the actual calendar week (CW) and the variables DSmax, a and b. These variables are estimated through curve fittings depending on the epidemic onset (CWDIL5%), respectively the calendar week when disease incidence per leaf (DIL) increases to ≥5%. Losses are dependent on the area under disease progress curve (AUDPC). Creation of AUDPC-values is based on the DS-values as calculated by submodel (i). The prediction of losses is performed through disease-loss-relationships (submodel ii, iii). The economic damage threshold is defined as AUDPC=1, equal to a loss of ≉1.5% sugar. Therefore fungicide sprays may be avoided, if the AUDPC remains beneath 1 till scheduled harvest time. All calculations for model development involved two grades of cultivar susceptibility, either highly or low susceptible. Moreover, prediction of yield loss needs indications of expected yield and scheduled harvest time. Proper diagnosis and disease scoring is a precondition for error free functioning of the model, since future progress is estimated by an assessment of the actual incidence situation

Quaternary Integrated Pest Management concept for powdery mildew in sugar beet. III. Economic damage threshold and loss prediction

Die ökonomische Schadensschwelle sowie die Verlustprognose sind Teil des Quaternären IPS (Integriertes Pflanzenschutz-System) –Konzeptes zur Bekämpfung des Echten Mehltaus in Zuckerrüben. Nach Auswertung von 73 Feldversuchen (1993-2004), durchgeführt unter den klimatischen Bedingungen Mitteleuropas, vermag der Echte Mehltau Verluste an bereinigtem Zuckerertrag von 10-15% auszulösen, der Zuckergehalt kann maximal um 0,5-0,7% (absolut) gemindert sein. Hohe Verluste sind wahrscheinlich unter der Bedingung eines frühen Epidemiebeginns im Juli sowie hoher Anfälligkeit der Zuckerrübensorte. Derartige Bedingungen führen ebenso zu einer Steigerung des αAmino-Stickstoff-Gehaltes, wodurch die Ausbeute an Zucker um 1-2% verringert wird. Die übrigen Nicht-Zuckerstoffe werden durch den Mehltau-Befall nicht signifikant beeinflusst. Unter Zusammenfassung aller Ertrags- und Qualitätsfaktoren wird mit Hilfe von Befalls-Verlust-Relationen unter Zugrundelegung des AUDPC (Area Under Disease Progress Curve) -Wertes eine wirtschaftliche Schadensschwelle von 2 definiert, gleichzusetzen mit einem Zuckerverlust von 1,8%. Im Hinblick auf eine Prognose von Verlusten ist die Überschreitung der wirtschaftlichen Schadensschwelle wahrscheinlich, sofern Erstbefall vor Mitte August auftritt. Im Falle von hoch anfälligen Sorten ist die Risikoperiode bis Ende August auszudehnen. Die Risikoperioden entsprechen den Behandlungszeiträumen für Fungizidapplikationen gegen den Echten Mehltau der Zuckerrübe.The economic damage threshold and loss prediction are part of the Quaternary IPM (Integrated Pest Management) -concept developed for the control of powdery mildew in sugar beets. The evaluation of 73 field trials, conducted under the climatic conditions in central Europe (1993-2004), established that powdery mildew may cause 10-15% sugar yield losses and 0.5-0.7 % (absolute) reductions of sugar content at the maximum. The losses occur preferably under conditions of early disease initiation in July and high susceptibility of cultivar. Such situations also may increase the content of αAminoNitrogen and, therefore, the recovery of sugar may be reduced by 1-2%. The other non sucrose components are not affected through powdery mildew. Derived from disease loss relationships and after summarising all yield and quality factors, the value of AUDPC (Area Under Disease Progress Curve) 2, equal to a sugar yield loss of 1.8 %, is defined as the economic damage threshold. In view of loss prediction, the exceeding of the economic damage threshold is likely if first symptoms appear before mid-August, the risk period is extended to the end of August in case of high susceptibility of cultivar. The risk periods are equal to action zones for fungicide treatments

The Road to TNR: Examining Trap-Neuter-Return Through the Lens of Our Evolving Ethics

In the 2008 article “A Review of Feral Cat Control,” Robertson explored the trend developing in the management of so-called “feral” cats away from lethal methods toward the non-lethal method of trap-neuter-return (TNR). The review explored various issues raised by the presence of these unowned, free-roaming cats in our neighborhoods (e.g., zoonotic disease and wildlife predation), stakeholder interests, and management options—all based on then-available information. Missing from the review, however, was an exploration of the shifting ethics underlying TNR's increasing popularity. In this essay, we explore the ethical aspects of community cat management in the U.S. as reflected in the momentum of the “no-kill movement” generally and TNR in particular. We argue that these powerful cultural currents reflect two interrelated ethical theories: (1) a zoocentric ethic that recognizes the intrinsic value of non-human animals beyond any instrumental value to humans, and (2) a virtue ethic that recognizes the legitimacy of “emotional” considerations (e.g., compassion) that rightly accompany decisions about how best to manage community cats

Anticoagulation in Atrial Fibrillation Patients

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common arrhythmia and may cause thromboembolic events, typically stroke. Advances in pharmacological approaches to anticoagulation and groundbreaking large randomized controlled trials of non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) have changed the paradigm of anticoagulation therapy. Furthermore, observational studies support the efficacy and safety of NOAC. Few studies address the differences among NOACs, but prescriptions should be based on a thorough understanding of their pharmacological differences, including interactions, side effects, reversibility, and practical approach. In a subset of patients with AF, warfarin may still be the preferable option. Consequently, an individualized approach to oral anticoagulation is crucial

Genome-Wide Association with Select Biomarker Traits in the Framingham Heart Study

BACKGROUND: Systemic biomarkers provide insights into disease pathogenesis, diagnosis, and risk stratification. Many systemic biomarker concentrations are heritable phenotypes. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) provide mechanisms to investigate the genetic contributions to biomarker variability unconstrained by current knowledge of physiological relations. METHODS: We examined the association of Affymetrix 100K GeneChip single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to 22 systemic biomarker concentrations in 4 biological domains: inflammation/oxidative stress; natriuretic peptides; liver function; and vitamins. Related members of the Framingham Offspring cohort (n = 1012; mean age 59 ± 10 years, 51% women) had both phenotype and genotype data (minimum-maximum per phenotype n = 507–1008). We used Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE), Family Based Association Tests (FBAT) and variance components linkage to relate SNPs to multivariable-adjusted biomarker residuals. Autosomal SNPs (n = 70,987) meeting the following criteria were studied: minor allele frequency ≥ 10%, call rate ≥ 80% and Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium p ≥ 0.001. RESULTS: With GEE, 58 SNPs had p < 10-6: the top SNPs were rs2494250 (p = 1.00*10-14) and rs4128725 (p = 3.68*10-12) for monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP1), and rs2794520 (p = 2.83*10-8) and rs2808629 (p = 3.19*10-8) for C-reactive protein (CRP) averaged from 3 examinations (over about 20 years). With FBAT, 11 SNPs had p < 10-6: the top SNPs were the same for MCP1 (rs4128725, p = 3.28*10-8, and rs2494250, p = 3.55*10-8), and also included B-type natriuretic peptide (rs437021, p = 1.01*10-6) and Vitamin K percent undercarboxylated osteocalcin (rs2052028, p = 1.07*10-6). The peak LOD (logarithm of the odds) scores were for MCP1 (4.38, chromosome 1) and CRP (3.28, chromosome 1; previously described) concentrations; of note the 1.5 support interval included the MCP1 and CRP SNPs reported above (GEE model). Previous candidate SNP associations with circulating CRP concentrations were replicated at p < 0.05; the SNPs rs2794520 and rs2808629 are in linkage disequilibrium with previously reported SNPs. GEE, FBAT and linkage results are posted at . CONCLUSION: The Framingham GWAS represents a resource to describe potentially novel genetic influences on systemic biomarker variability. The newly described associations will need to be replicated in other studies.National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute's Framingham Heart Study (N01-HC25195); National Institutes of Health National Center for Research Resources Shared Instrumentation grant (1S10RR163736-01A1); National Institutes of Health (HL064753, HL076784, AG028321, HL71039, 2 K24HL04334, 1K23 HL083102); Doris Duke Charitable Foundation; American Diabetes Association Career Developement Award; National Center for Research Resources (GCRC M01-RR01066); US Department of Agriculture Agricultural Research Service (58-1950-001, 58-1950-401); National Institute of Aging (AG14759

A Cluster-Randomized Trial to Evaluate the Impact of an Inclusive, Community-Led Total Sanitation Intervention on Sanitation Access for People with Disabilities in Malawi.

Community-led total sanitation (CLTS) is a common method for promoting sanitation in low-income settings. This cluster-randomized trial evaluated an intervention to improve inclusion of people with disability in CLTS through training facilitators. A qualitative study examined intervention acceptability. The trial included 171 people with disabilities (78 control and 93 intervention) living in 15 intervention and 15 control communities. In the intervention arm, respondents were more likely to participate in a community meeting about sanitation (+18.7%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.2, 34.2) and to have been visited to discuss sanitation (+19.7, 95% CI: 0.6, 37.8). More intervention households improved latrine access for the disabled member (+9%, CI: -3.1, 21.0). Inclusive CLTS could improve sanitation access for people with disability but requires support to households beyond that provided in this trial

Construing the child reader: a cognitive stylistic analysis of the opening to Neil Gaiman’s The Graveyard Book

Neil Gaiman’s The Graveyard Book (2009) charts the story of Nobody Owens, a boy who is adopted by supernatural entities in the local graveyard after his family is murdered. This article draws on the notion of the “construed reader,” and combines two cognitive stylistic frameworks to analyse the opening section of the novel. In doing so, the article explores the representation and significance of the family home in relation to what follows in the narrative. The analysis largely draws on Text World Theory (Werth, 1999; Gavins, 2007), but also integrates some aspects of Cognitive Grammar (Langacker, 2008), which allows for a more nuanced discussion of textual features. The article pays particular attention to the way Gaiman frames his narrative and positions his reader to view the fictional events from a distinctive vantage point and subsequently demonstrates that a stylistic analysis of children’s literature can lay bare how such writing is designed with a young readership in mind

Atrial Fibrillation and Delayed Gastric Emptying

Background: Atrial fibrillation and delayed gastric emptying (DGE) are common after pancreaticoduodenectomy. Our aim was to investigate a potential relationship between atrial fibrillation and DGE, which we defined as failure to tolerate a regular diet by the 7 th postoperative day. Methods: We performed a retrospective chart review of 249 patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy at our institution between 2000 and 2009. Data was analyzed with Fisher exact test for categorical variables and Mann-Whitney U or unpaired T-test for continuous variables. Results: Approximately 5 % of the 249 patients included in the analysis experienced at least one episode of postoperative atrial fibrillation. Median age of patients with atrial fibrillation was 74 years, compared with 66 years in patients without atrial fibrillation (p = 0.0005). Patients with atrial fibrillation were more likely to have a history of atrial fibrillation (p = 0.03). 92 % of the patients with atrial fibrillation suffered from DGE, compared to 46 % of patients without atrial fibrillation (p = 0.0007). This association held true when controlling for age. Conclusion: Patients with postoperative atrial fibrillation are more likely to experience delayed gastric emptying. Interventions to manage delayed gastric function might be prudent in patients at high risk for postoperative atrial fibrillation

Resveratrol Delays Age-Related Deterioration and Mimics Transcriptional Aspects of Dietary Restriction without Extending Life Span

22 páginas, 4 figuras.A small molecule that safely mimics the ability of dietary restriction (DR) to delay age-related diseases in laboratory animals is greatly sought after. We and others have shown that resveratrol mimics effects of DR in lower organisms. In mice, we find that resveratrol induces gene expression patterns in multiple tissues that parallel those induced by DR and every-other-day feeding. Moreover, resveratrol-fed elderly mice show a marked reduction in signs of aging, including reduced albuminuria, decreased inflammation, and apoptosis in the vascular endothelium, increased aortic elasticity, greater motor coordination, reduced cataract formation, and preserved bone mineral density. However, mice fed a standard diet did not live longer when treated with resveratrol beginning at 12 months of age. Our findings indicate that resveratrol treatment has a range of beneficial effects in mice but does not increase the longevity of ad libitum-fed animals when started midlife.This work was supported by grants from the American Heart Association (0425834T to J.A.B. and 0435140N to A.C.) and from the NIH (RO1GM068072, AG19972, and AG19719 to D.A.S.), (HL077256 to Z.U.), (HD034089 to L.W), (2RO1 EY011733 to N.S.W.), Spanish grant (BFU2005-03017 to P.N.), and by the generous support of Mr. Paul F. Glenn and The Paul F. Glenn Laboratories for the Biological Mechanisms of Aging.Peer reviewe