Monetary unit sampling: a belief-function implementation for audit and accounting applications

AbstractAudit procedures may be planned and audit evidence evaluated using monetary unit sampling (MUS) techniques within the context of the Dempster–Shafer theory of belief functions. This article shows: (1) how to determine an appropriate sample size for MUS in order to obtain a desired degree of belief that the upper bound for misstatements lies within a given interval; and (2) what level of belief in a specified interval is obtained given a sample result. The results are consistent with the view that a specified level of belief in an interval is semantically a stronger claim than the same numerical level of probability. The paper describes two variants of MUS in both probability and belief-function forms, emphasizing the systematic similarities and the numerical differences between the two frameworks. The results, based on the Poisson distribution, extend results already available for mean-per-unit variables sampling, and may readily be developed to give similar results for the binomial distribution

Discussant\u27s response to A Behavioral-economics approach to auditors\u27 risk assessments

https://egrove.olemiss.edu/dl_proceedings/1045/thumbnail.jp

The upper end of climate model temperature projections is inconsistent with past warming

Climate models predict a large range of possible future temperatures for a particular scenario of future emissions of greenhouse gases and other anthropogenic forcings of climate. Given that further warming in coming decades could threaten increasing risks of climatic disruption, it is important to determine whether model projections are consistent with temperature changes already observed. This can be achieved by quantifying the extent to which increases in well mixed greenhouse gases and changes in other anthropogenic and natural forcings have already altered temperature patterns around the globe. Here, for the first time, we combine multiple climate models into a single synthesized estimate of future warming rates consistent with past temperature changes. We show that the observed evolution of near-surface temperatures appears to indicate lower ranges (5–95%) for warming (0.35–0.82 K and 0.45–0.93 K by the 2020s (2020–9) relative to 1986–2005 under the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios respectively) than the equivalent ranges projected by the CMIP5 climate models (0.48–1.00 K and 0.51–1.16 K respectively). Our results indicate that for each RCP the upper end of the range of CMIP5 climate model projections is inconsistent with past warming

Representation of Interrelationships among Binary Variables under Dempster-Shafer Theory of Belief Functions

This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Srivastava, R. P., L. Gao, and P. Gillett. " Representation of Interrelationships among Binary Variables under Dempster-Shafer Theory of Belief Functions" (pre-publication version), 2009, International Journal of Intelligent Systems, Volume 24 Issue 4, pp. 459 - 475, which has been published in final form at http://doi.org/10.1002/int.20347. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving.This paper presents an algorithm for developing models under Dempster-Shafer theory of belief functions for categorical and 'uncertain' logical relationships among binary variables. We illustrate the use of the algorithm by developing belief-function representations of the following categorical relationships: 'AND', 'OR', 'Exclusive OR (EOR)' and 'Not Exclusive OR (NEOR)', and 'AND-NEOR' and of the following uncertain relationships: 'Discounted AND', 'Conditional OR', and 'Weighted Average'. Such representations are needed to fully model and analyze a problem with a network of interrelated variables under Dempster-Shafer theory of belief functions. In addition, we compare our belief-function representation of the 'Weighted Average' relationship with the 'Weighted Average' representation developed and used by Shenoy and Shenoy8. We find that Shenoy and Shenoy representation of the weighted average relationship is an approximation and yields significantly different values under certain conditions

Regionally acquired intestinal failure data suggest an underestimate in national service requirements

Objectives, setting and patients: With complete case referral for prolonged parenteral nutrition (PN) beyond term equivalent, serving a stable population of 1.25 million people, we describe the long-term outcome and survival of patients referred to an intestinal failure (IF) nutrition support team over the first 8 years of existence at a regional paediatric centre, and extrapolate to potential numbers of national home parenteral nutrition (HPN) cases and intestinal transplantation data. Design and outcome measures: Retrospective analysis detailing patient demographics, interventions, use of HPN, occurrence of intestinal failure-associated liver disease (IFALD), and outcomes of enteral adaptation, survival, and referral for and receipt of organ transplantation. Results: 23 patients were referred over 8 years, 20 being PN dependent within the neonatal period. Diagnoses included short bowel syndrome (SBS) (18), neuromuscular abnormalities (4) and congenital enterocyte disorder (1). 12 696 days of PN were delivered with 314 confirmed episodes of sepsis at a median of 12 episodes per patient. 144 central venous catheters (CVCs) were required at a median of four per patient. IFALD occurred in 17 (73%) patients, with 10 (44%) referred for transplant assessment. Thirteen (56%) children received HPN. Overall mortality was 44%. A significant predictor for survival in the SBS group was residual bowel >40 cm (82% vs 28%, p = 0.049). Conclusions: Survival for IF at 56% was lower than reported from non-UK supra-regional centres, and nationally collected data, possibly reflecting pre-selected referral populations. Data from regional centres with complete ascertainment may be important both when counselling parents and when planning regional and national HPN and IF specialist services

Experiences in obtaining prescribable and non-prescribable gluten-free products of adults with coeliac disease in Lothian.

sch_die70pub2925pubOEC

N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and risk of future cognitive impairment in the REGARDS cohort

Background: Improved understanding of the etiology of cognitive impairment is needed to develop effective preventive interventions. Higher amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) is a biomarker of cardiac dysfunction associated with risk of cardiovascular diseases and stroke in apparently healthy people. Objective: To study the association of NT-proBNP with risk of incident cognitive impairment. Methods: The Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke is a national cohort study of 30,239 black and white Americans age 45 and older at baseline, enrolled in 2003-7. Among participants without prebaseline stroke or cognitive impairment, baseline NT-proBNP was measured in 470 cases of incident cognitive impairment and 557 controls. Cases were participants scoring below the 6th percentile of demographically-adjusted means on at least 2 of 3 serially administered tests (word list learning, word list recall and semantic fluency) over 3.5 years follow-up. Results: Adjusting for age, gender, race, region of residence, education, and income, there was an increased odds ratio of incident cognitive impairment with increasing NT-proBNP; participants in the 4th versus 1st quartile (>127 versus ≤33 pg/ml) had a 1.69-fold increased odds (95% CI 1.11–2.58). Adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors and presence of an apolipoprotein E4 allele had no substantial impact on the odds ratio. Results did not differ by age, race, gender, or presence of an apolipoprotein E4 allele. Conclusion: Higher NT-pro-BNP was associated with incident cognitive impairment in this prospective study, independent of atherogenic and Alzheimer’s disease risk factors. Future work should clarify pathophysiologic connections of NT-proBNP and cognitive dysfunction