Addressing Key Risk of Water Resources and Describing the Adaptation Pathways to Uncertain Future Climate Change

Source: ICHE Conference Archive - https://mdi-de.baw.de/icheArchive

The Climate Change Impact Assessment and The Establishment of Seasonal Early Warning System for The Habitat of Formosan Landlocked Salmon

櫻花鈎吻鮭（學名Oncorhynchus masou formosanus）是台灣之重要生態物種，更是世界重要的自然資源，七家灣溪是櫻花鈎吻鮭重要的棲地，但其棲地範圍受到人為活動的影響而逐漸縮減。而流量和水溫為櫻花鈎吻鮭重要之環境因子，然氣候變遷可能改變水溫與流量，進而影響棲地，促使我們去探討流量和水溫在集水區內的變化。 根據文獻連續七日水溫十分重要，因此，本研究首先進行水溫模式之修正，透過連續監測之溫度紀錄並配合模式之計算，精進過去所發展之水溫模式，加入雲遮蔽與逕流匯入之影響，突破以往水溫模式使用上受到天氣條件之限制，使模式具有連續模擬之能力，結果顯示此模式可以合理模擬連續水溫，將可有效做為氣候變化對於櫻花鈎吻鮭棲地影響之評估工具。 在棲地的衝擊評估上，本研究選定INM-CM3、MRI-CGCM2_3_2、NCAR-CCSM3及UKMO-HADCM3四個大氣環流模式與A2、A1B、B1三種氣候變遷預設情境，以分析氣候變遷對於櫻花鈎吻鮭棲地流量和水溫的影響。另外本研究針對河川水文特性，以七家灣溪為範例，建構櫻花鈎吻鮭的季節性生態預警系統，配合季長期預報和水文、水溫模擬，預知流量和水溫的資訊。本研究所建構之預警系統能將七家灣溪各個河段流量和水溫之季節性預報結果發佈，利用圖片呈現各個河段在流量與水溫面臨的風險，未來並與網路結合，使訊息能夠即時進行更新，讓相關保育單位能在放流工作進行前，選擇風險較低的河段來人工放流，提高放流的成功率。Formosan Landlocked Salmon (the scientific name Oncorhynchus masou formosanus) is an important specie of Taiwan. And more important, it is also the natural assets of the world. The ChiChaWan Creek is an important habitat of Formosa Landlocked Salmon. Yet, the range of habitat has been reducing gradually by the impact of human activities. Stream discharge and stream temperature are essential factors for Formosa Landlocked Salmon. Climate change may alter stream temperature and stream flows and then further affect the habitat of salmon which makes us to evaluate the possible change of stream flows and stream temperature in the catchment area. According to the literature, stream temperature of seven continuous days is important. Therefore, this study works on the model’s improvement on the capability of continuous simulation first. Through continuous monitoring of stream temperature records and calculated with the model, improves stream temperature model, developed by the past. Adding the effect of cloud cover and surface runoff, the stream temperature model breaks through the limitation of weather conditions. The results show this model could reasonably simulate stream temperature continuously. And it will be an effective assessment tool for salmon habitat. In order to analyze the impact on the salmon habitat under climate change, the study choose four GCMs, including INM-CM3, MRI-CGCM2_3_2, NCAR-CCSM3 and UKMO-HADCM3 and three SRES scenarios, including A2, A1B and B1. To reduce the risk of the failure of reintroduction, anticipatory assessments of choosing the appropriate section of river for reintroduction become essential. To exhibit the seasonal early warning system for the Formosan Landlocked salmon, this study takes ChiChaWan Creek as an example and focuses on the hydrological and thermal characteristics of the river. The early warning system can provide stream flows and stream temperature information in advance. This study further illustrates the risk of stream discharge and stream temperature of the river on the map. Besides, the messages can be updated instantly; hence, the authority can choose the most appropriate rivers section before reintroduction. In the future, early warning systems can be extended to all the upstream tributaries of DaJia Creek

Lambda-free light chain: A serum marker of dengue disease via NS3 protease-mediated antibody cleavage

ABSTRACTDengue poses a significant global public health threat, with diverse clinical manifestations due to complex interactions between the host and the pathogen. Recent reports have highlighted elevated serum-free light chain (FLC) levels in viral infectious diseases. Hence, our study aimed to investigate serum FLC levels in dengue patients. The findings revealed elevated serum λ FLCs, which were associated with the severity of dengue. Receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis demonstrated that λ FLCs may serve as a serum marker for identifying dengue disease (AUC: 0.7825, sensitivity: 80, specificity: 71.43) and classifying severe dengue (AUC: 0.8102, sensitivity: 75, specificity: 79.52). The viral protease, Dengue virus (DENV) nonstructural protein 3 (NS3), acts as a protease that cleaves viral polyproteins as well as host substrates. Therefore, we proposed that antibodies might be potential targets of NS3 protease, leading to an increase in FLCs. LC/MS-MS analysis confirmed that λ FLCs were the predominant products after antibody degradation by NS3 protease. Additionally, purified NS3 protease cleaved both human IgG and DENV2-neutralizing antibodies, resulting in the presence of λ FLCs. Moreover, NS3 protease administration in vitro led to a reduction in the neutralizing efficacy of DENV2-neutralizing antibodies. In summary, the elevated serum λ FLC levels effectively differentiate dengue patients from healthy individuals and identify severe dengue. Furthermore, the elevation of serum λ FLCs is, at least in part, mediated through NS3 protease-mediated antibody cleavage. These findings provide new insights for developing diagnostic tools and understanding the pathogenesis of DENV infection

Symptoms associated with adverse dengue fever prognoses at the time of reporting in the 2015 dengue outbreak in Taiwan

<div><p>Background</p><p>Tainan experienced the most severe dengue epidemic in Taiwan in 2015. This study investigates the association between the signs and symptoms at the time of reporting with the adverse dengue prognoses.</p><p>Methods</p><p>A descriptive study was conducted using secondary data from the Dengue Disease Reporting System in Tainan, Taiwan, between January 1 and December 31, 2015. A multivariate stepwise logistic regression was used to identify the risk factors for the adverse prognoses: ICU admissions and mortality.</p><p>Results</p><p>There were 22,777 laboratory-confirmed reported cases (mean age 45.6 ± 21.2 years), of which 3.7% were admitted to intensive care units (ICU), and 0.8% were fatal. The most common symptoms were fever (92.8%), myalgia (26.6%), and headache (22.4%). The prevalence of respiratory distress, altered consciousness, shock, bleeding, and thrombocytopenia increased with age. The multivariate analysis indicated that being in 65–89 years old age group [Adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR):4.95], or the 90 years old and above age group (aOR: 9.06), and presenting with shock (aOR: 8.90) and respiratory distress (aOR: 5.31) were significantly associated with the risk of ICU admission. While old age (aOR: 1.11), respiratory distress (aOR: 9.66), altered consciousness (aOR: 7.06), and thrombocytopenia (aOR: 2.55) were significantly associated with the risk of mortality.</p><p>Conclusions</p><p>Dengue patients older than 65 and those with severe and non-specific signs and symptoms at the time of reporting were at a higher risk of ICU admission and mortality. First-line healthcare providers need to be aware of the varied presentations between the different age groups to allow early diagnosis and in-time management, which would prevent ICU admissions and fatalities in dengue patients.</p></div

Multivariate stepwise logistic regression analysis for mortality (N = 22, 767).

<p>Multivariate stepwise logistic regression analysis for mortality (N = 22, 767).</p

Characteristics of the 22,777 patients with dengue in Tainan.

<p>Characteristics of the 22,777 patients with dengue in Tainan.</p

Distribution of the signs and symptoms by organ systems at the time of reporting in dengue patients in different age groups.

<p>Distribution of the signs and symptoms by organ systems at the time of reporting in dengue patients in different age groups.</p

Signs and symptoms at the time of reporting in the 22,777 dengue patients in Tainan.

<p>Signs and symptoms at the time of reporting in the 22,777 dengue patients in Tainan.</p