International capital flows : do short-term investment and direct investment differ?

The authors examine the behavior of four major components of international capital flows in 15 developing and industrial countries. Striking differences in the behavior of the component flows arise in general specifications that allow the flows to interact. For example, the behavior of international short-term investment appears to be sensitive to changes in all the other types of international capital flows, including direct investment, but direct investment appears to be insensitive to such changes. In finding that short-term investment appears to respond more dramatically to disturbances in other capital flows and in other countries than does direct investment, the authors provide empirical support for the conventional notion that short-term investment is"hot money"and direct investment is not.International Terrorism&Counterterrorism,Economic Theory&Research,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Fiscal&Monetary Policy,Capital Markets and Capital Flows,Financial Intermediation,International Terrorism&Counterterrorism,Economic Theory&Research,Banks&Banking Reform,Capital Flows

Recent Work on Gravitational Waves From a Generic Standard Model-like Effective Higgs Potential

I present recent work on gravitational waves (GWs) from a generic Standard Model-like effective potential for the electroweak phase transition. We derive a semi-analytic expression for the approximate tunneling temperature, and analytic and approximate expressions for the two GW parameters $\alpha$ and $\beta$. A quick summary of our analysis and general results, as well as a list of some specific models which easily fit into this framework, are presented. The work presented here has been done in collaboration with Stefano Profumo (arXiv:0911.0687).Comment: 2 pages, Elsevier 2-column CRC style, Cargese Summer School 2009 proceedings, slightly revised from published version to include a reference to the full work (arXiv:0911.0687) and references reordere

A decomposition of the increased stability of GDP growth

Since 1984, the U.S. economy has grown at a remarkably steady pace. An analysis of this increased stability shows that every major component of GDP has exhibited smoother growth. However, two components--inventory investment and consumer spending--are responsible for the bulk of the decline in overall volatility.Gross domestic product ; Capital investments ; Inventories ; Consumption (Economics)

Do european business cycles look like one _?\_?

This paper analyzes if each European country presents business cycles that are similar enough to validate what some authors call the European cycle. Contrary to the majority of papers on business cycles, we concentrate on the appearance of the cycle, not on the synchronization. We provide a robust methodology for dating and characterizing business cycles and their phases and adopt the model-based cluster analysis to test the existence of an unique cluster (a common cycle) against more than one. We nd evidence against a common cycle. Finally, we nd no clear relation between similarities in business cycle appearance and synchronization across countries.

Undecay

Unstable particles decay sooner or later, so they are not described by asymptotic one-particle states and they should not be included as independent states in unitarity relations such as the optical theorem. The same applies to any countable collection of unstable particles. We show that the behaviour of unparticle stuff, that is, a continuous collection of particles with different masses and common decay channels, is pretty different: it has a non-vanishing probability of surviving for ever and the corresponding asymptotic states must be taken into account to comply with unitarity. We also discuss compressed spectra and the transition from the discrete to the continuous case.Comment: 52 pages, 16 figure

Markov-switching dynamic factor models in real time

© 2018. This document is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ This document is the submitted version of a published work that appeared in final form in International Journal of Forecasting.We extend the Markov-switching dynamic factor model to account for some of the specificities of the day-to-day monitoring of economic developments from macroeconomic indicators, such as mixed sampling frequencies and ragged-edge data. First, we evaluate the theoretical gains of using data that are available promptly for computing probabilities of recession in real time. Second, we show how to estimate the model that deals with unbalanced panels of data and mixed frequencies, and examine the benefits of this extension through several Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, we assess its empirical reliability for the computation of real-time inferences of the US business cycle, and compare it with the alternative method of forecasting the probabilities of recession from balanced panels

The Great Recession. Worse than ever?

© 2018. This document is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ This document is the submitted version of a published work that appeared in final form in Economía Aplicada.We develop an international comparative assessment of the Great Recession, in terms of the features that characterize the form of the recession phases, namely length, depth and shape. The potential unobserved heterogeneity in the international recession characteristics is modeled by a finite mixture model. Using Bayesian inference via Gibbs sampling, the model classiffies the Great Recession suffered by a large number of countries into dfferent clusters, determining its severity in cross section and time series and dimensions. Our results suggest that the business cycle features of the Great Recession are not dfferent from others in an international perspective. By contrast, we show that the only distinctive feature of the Great Recession wasits unprecedented degree of synchronicity

Soft-Wall Stabilization

We propose a general class of five-dimensional soft-wall models with AdS metric near the ultraviolet brane and four-dimensional Poincar\'e invariance, where the infrared scale is determined dynamically. A large UV/IR hierarchy can be generated without any fine-tuning, thus solving the electroweak/Planck scale hierarchy problem. Generically, the spectrum of fluctuations is discrete with a level spacing (mass gap) provided by the inverse length of the wall, similar to RS1 models with Standard Model fields propagating in the bulk. Moreover two particularly interesting cases arise. They can describe: (a) a theory with a continuous spectrum above the mass gap which can model unparticles corresponding to operators of a CFT where the conformal symmetry is broken by a mass gap, and; (b) a theory with a discrete spectrum provided by linear Regge trajectories as in AdS/QCD models.Comment: 27 pages, 6 figures, 1 table. v2: references added, version to appear in NJP Focus Issue on Extra Dimension

How transparent are central banks?

Central bank transparency has become the topic of a lively public and academic debate on monetary policy. However, this has been complicated by the fact that transparency is a qualitative concept that is hard to measure. This paper proposes an index for the transparency of monetary policy that comprises the political, economic, procedural, policy and operational aspects of central banking. The index is compiled for nine major central banks. It is based on a detailed analysis of actual information disclosure and reveals a rich variety in the degree and dynamics of central bank transparency