Empirical forecasting practices of a British university

This article is based on a single case study aimed at examining behavioral issues of forecasting, in particular the role and practice of forecasting in a British university settings. Key variables were identified in establishing associations between the variables that provide suitable criteria for the purpose of this study. Data collection was based on questionnaires distributed to people involved and interviews which were held with prominent staff of the University. Fisher-exact tests were performed to identify significant associations between variables. Results indicated the various levels of perceptions and practices of forecasting produced by the people involved at the University. The study implies that useful insights can be gathered through forecasting from a different perspective of the non-profit making service industry

Siemens Strategy to Have a Leap Growth on In-Vitro Diagnostic (IVD) Business in Indonesia

Healthcare Diagnostic Industry in Indonesia is showing promising growth by the time. As one of the emerging countries that have the largest population in South East Asia that makes Indonesia is categorized as second wave emerging countries. Healthcare Diagnostic is one of the business divisions of Healthcare Sector PT. Siemens Indonesia. The potential, unique business behavior and niche market attracts management\u27s attention to seriously develop the business since PT. Siemens Indonesia as principal was handing over the business on 2011.Division of healthcare diagnostic has officially become a division of PT. Siemens Indonesia – Healthcare Sector in 2011. Grow the business on a leap is the main target from handing over business process to Siemens Indonesia. Therefore, it required accurate business strategy to meet the demand and to compete with competitors so that Siemens could develop and achieve the growth on a “leap”.To determine the precise business strategy, the writer will require strategic analysis that includes external and internal. Business strategy developed should be derived down to business model and business tactic to give detail description of the steps taken and determine percentage numbers of “leap” growth to be achieved within five years from the implementation of the business strategy

Systematic Analysis of Clinical Outcomes Following Stereotactic Radiosurgery for Central Neurocytoma.

Central neurocytoma (CN) typically presents as an intraventricular mass causing obstructive hydrocephalus. The first line of treatment is surgical resection with adjuvant conventional radiotherapy. Stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) was proposed as an alternative therapy for CN because of its lower risk profile. The objective of this systematic analysis is to assess the efficacy of SRS for CN. A systematic analysis for CN treated with SRS was conducted in PubMed. Baseline patient characteristics and outcomes data were extracted. Heterogeneity and publication bias were also assessed. Univariate and multivariate linear regressions were used to test for correlations to the primary outcome: local control (LC). The estimated cumulative rate of LC was 92.2% (95% confidence interval: 86.5-95.7%, p<0.001). Mean follow-up time was 62.4 months (range 3-149 months). Heterogeneity and publication bias were insignificant. The univariate linear regression models for both mean tumor volume and mean dose were significantly correlated with improved LC (p<0.001). Our data suggests that SRS may be an effective and safe therapy for CN. However, the rarity of CN still limits the efficacy of a quantitative analysis. Future multi-institutional, randomized trials of CN patients should be considered to further elucidate this therapy

Revisiting Nuclear Thermal Propulsion for Human Mars Exploration

Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) has long been considered as a viable in-space transportation alternative for delivering crew and cargo to the Martian system. While technology development work in nuclear propulsion has continued over the year, general interest in NTP propulsion applications has historically been tied directly to the ebb and flow of interest in sending humans to explore Mars. As far back as the 1960s, plans for NTP-based human Mars exploration have been proposed and periodically revisited having most recently been considered as part of NASA Design Reference Architecture (DRA) 5.0. NASA has been investigating human Mars exploration strategies tied to its current Journey to Mars for the past few years however, NTP has only recently been added into the set of alternatives under consideration for in-space propulsion under the Mars Study Capability (MSC) team, formerly the Evolvable Mars Campaign (EMC) team. The original charter of the EMC was to find viable human Mars exploration approaches that relied heavily on technology investment work already underway, specifically related to the development of large Solar Electric Propulsion (SEP) systems. The EMC team baselined several departures from traditional Mars exploration ground rules to enable these types of architectures. These ground rule changes included lower energy conjunction class trajectories with corresponding longer flight times, aggregation of mission elements in cis-Lunar space rather than Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and, in some cases, the pre-deployment of Earth return propulsion systems to Mars. As the MSC team continues to refine the in-space transportation trades, an NTP-based architecture that takes advantage of some of these ground rule departures is being introduced

Opening the Solar System: An Advanced Nuclear Spacecraft for Human Exploration

Human exploration of the solar system is limited by our technology, not our imagination. We dream of a time when we can freely travel among the planets and truly become a spacefaring people. However, the current state of our technology limits our options for architecting missions to other planets. Instead of sailing the seas of space in the way that we cruise the seas of Earth, our limited propulsion technology requires us to depart Earth on a giant cluster of gas tanks and return in a lifeboat. This inefficient approach to exploration is evident in many of today's leading mission plans for human flights to Mars, asteroids, and other destinations. The cost and complexity of this approach to mission architecting makes it extremely difficult to realize our dreams of exploration beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO). This does not need to be the case. Researchers at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) have been investigating the feasibility of a new take on nuclear propulsion with the performance to enable a paradigm shift in human space exploration. During the fall of 2013, engineers at MSFC's Advanced Concepts Office developed a spacecraft concept (pictured below) around this new propulsion technology and redefined the human Mars mission to show its full potential. This spacecraft, which can be launched with a fleet of soon-to-be available SLS launch vehicles, is fueled primarily with hydrogen, and is fully reusable with no staging required. The reusable nature of this design enables a host of alternative mission architectures that more closely resemble an ocean voyage than our current piecemeal approach to exploration

Manned Lunar Missions: An Exercise in Propulsion Trades and Sensitivities

A recent study performed for the In-Space Propulsion Technology Office at the Marshall Space Flight Center investigated the effects of using different propellant types on the different stages required to perform a manned lunar mission. The original study included investigations into propellant type, propellant storage technology options and sensitivities to specific impulse variations for a lunar orbit rendezvous mission. The initial mission characteristics were based on previous work led by Langley Research Center. Outlined in this paper are the results of that study and the work that followed. A lunar direct return architecture was added to the analysis. Since both architectures required assembly of the various propulsive stages in low Earth orbit and multiple launches to deliver those stages, investigations of launch sequence and scheduling sensitivities were also included. Results show that lunar direct return architectures require more mass to complete missions when compared to lunar orbit rendezvous missions. Within the given architectures, trends in the results tended to be very similar with the architectures indicating very little sensitivity to launch sequence and specific impulse variations and indicating more sensitivity to the propellant choice made for each stage and the time between launches. Even though this study investigates a small subset of the possible lunar architecture trade space, it does begin to outline some of the issues that must be investigated and the characteristics of the mission and the mission elements that are of most importance to a full architecture assessment

In-Space Transportation for NASA's Evolvable Mars Campaign

As the nation embarks on a new and bold journey to Mars, significant work is being done to determine what that mission and those architectural elements will look like. The Evolvable Mars Campaign, or EMC, is being evaluated as a potential approach to getting humans to Mars. Built on the premise of leveraging current technology investments and maximizing element commonality to reduce cost and development schedule, the EMC transportation architecture is focused on developing the elements required to move crew and equipment to Mars as efficiently and effectively as possible both from a performance and a programmatic standpoint. Over the last 18 months the team has been evaluating potential options for those transportation elements. One of the key aspects of the EMC is leveraging investments being made today in missions like the Asteroid Redirect Mission (ARM) mission using derived versions of the Solar Electric Propulsion (SEP) propulsion systems and coupling them with other chemical propulsion elements that maximize commonality across the architecture between both transportation and Mars operations elements. This paper outlines the broad trade space being evaluated including the different technologies being assessed for transportation elements and how those elements are assembled into an architecture. Impacts to potential operational scenarios at Mars are also investigated. Trades are being made on the size and power level of the SEP vehicle for delivering cargo as well as the size of the chemical propulsion systems and various mission aspects including Inspace assembly and sequencing. Maximizing payload delivery to Mars with the SEP vehicle will better support the operational scenarios at Mars by enabling the delivery of landers and habitation elements that are appropriately sized for the mission. The purpose of this investigation is not to find the solution but rather a suite of solutions with potential application to the challenge of sending cargo and crew to Mars. The goal is that, by building an architecture intelligently with all aspects considered, the sustainable Mars program wisely invests limited resources enabling a long-term human Mars exploration program

Assessing the Relative Risk of Aerocapture Using Probabalistic Risk Assessment

A recent study performed for the Aerocapture Technology Area in the In-Space Propulsion Technology Projects Office at the Marshall Space Flight Center investigated the relative risk of various capture techniques for Mars missions. Aerocapture has been proposed as a possible capture technique for future Mars missions but has been perceived by many in the community as a higher risk option as compared to aerobraking and propulsive capture. By performing a probabilistic risk assessment on aerocapture, aerobraking and propulsive capture, a comparison was made to uncover the projected relative risks of these three maneuvers. For mission planners, this knowledge will allow them to decide if the mass savings provided by aerocapture warrant any incremental risk exposure. The study focuses on a Mars Sample Return mission currently under investigation at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). In each case (propulsive, aerobraking and aerocapture), the Earth return vehicle is inserted into Martian orbit by one of the three techniques being investigated. A baseline spacecraft was established through initial sizing exercises performed by JPL's Team X. While Team X design results provided the baseline and common thread between the spacecraft, in each case the Team X results were supplemented by historical data as needed. Propulsion, thermal protection, guidance, navigation and control, software, solar arrays, navigation and targeting and atmospheric prediction were investigated. A qualitative assessment of human reliability was also included. Results show that different risk drivers contribute significantly to each capture technique. For aerocapture, the significant drivers include propulsion system failures and atmospheric prediction errors. Software and guidance hardware contribute the most to aerobraking risk. Propulsive capture risk is mainly driven by anomalous solar array degradation and propulsion system failures. While each subsystem contributes differently to the risk of each technique, results show that there exists little relative difference in the reliability of these capture techniques although uncertainty for the aerocapture estimates remains high given the lack of in-space demonstration

Human Mars Entry, Descent and Landing Architecture Study: Deployable Decelerators

NASAs Entry, Descent and Landing Architecture Study uses a trajectory simulation framework to evaluate various technologies and concepts of operations for human scale EDL at Mars. The study results inform agency technology investments. This paper summarizes the design assumptions and analysis of two deployable entry concepts performed in Phase 2 of the study. The entry concepts include a rigid deployable called the Adaptable Deployable Entry Placement Technology and an inflatable concept called the Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator. This paper describes the concept operations of these vehicles to deliver a 20-metric ton payload to the surface of Mars. Details of vehicle design and flight performance are summarized along with results of analysis on the aft body heating and its effect on the payload. Finally, recommended technology investments based on the results are presented