Evaluation of the Macroeconomic Stability of Central and Eastern European Countries with a View Toward their Membership in the European Union. Multidimensional Risk Analysis

The shapes of the macroeconomic stabilisation pentagon for CEEC economies in 2014 shows that none of the analysed countries is characterised by total filling of the pentagon. This means that the economic situation in these countries is not stable and requires constant monitoring. The figures related to all analysed indicators, apart from GDP, are characterised by a flattened shape, which is characteristic for such a situation

Linear and Non-linear Relationships Between Shares of the Agri-food Industries of the Warsaw Stock Exchange. Risk Aspect

Despite a wide range of research on the agricultural market conducted so far, relatively little attention has been devoted to a comprehensive analysis of linear and non-linear causality in relation to the entire agri-food sector in Poland, in the context of risk. The objective of this study is therefore to analyze the linear and non-linear relationships between shares of WSE's agri-food industry sectors in terms of risk. The study covered three sectors of agri-food sector currently existing on the WSE (29 listed companies): Foods (21 listed companies), Agricultural Production and Fisheries (5 listed companies) and Food and Foodstuffs and fast-trafficking foodstuffs (3 listed companies). The existence of linear relationships was verified using the test procedure proposed by Hong, Liu, Wang and Łęt, while non-linear relationships were verified using the Diks-Panchenko, Orzeszko and Osińska tests’s. The study was carried out on the basis of data from companies of the agri-food industry listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange in the period from 1 May 2010 to 1 May 2017. The chosen research methodology was dictated by the correlation with investment risk on the WSE. The strongest and most enduring dependencies have been found in the agricultural and fisheries sectors. In the foodstuff sector and the fast-marketable sector, the risk of investment in the listed companies was temporary

Unia Bankowa – Korzyści i zagrożenia dla Polski

The Banking Union will change the face of Europe. It will significantly deepen integration in what is arguably the key sector of the economy. For the Member States that join the Banking Union, this will mean signing up for ‘more Europe’. This will raise not only technical questions as to how Banking Union will actually work, but also political questions. These relate to how that deeper Europe should be governed and how the Banking Union will fit within the EU as a whole. Banking union consists of five elements: Regulation, Supervision, Deposit guarantees, Resolution and Liquidity provision from the Central Bank. All need to work together. Just as one needs a blueprint for the entire building before laying the foundation, so too would it be helpful to have a sense of Banking Union in its entirety before initiating the Single Supervisory Mechanism as the first instalment. Otherwise one runs the risk that Banking Union will remain partial, and that this will make things worse, not better

Risk of Global Economic Crisis in 2022 and the Mechanism of Transmission of Economic Shocks between the Main Areas of the Global Economy

Goal – the aim of the study is to analyze the main economic areas of the global economy in terms of the possibility of transferring the crisis in relation to the current global economic situation. Research methodology – the analysis conducted was based on literature research; the empirical analysis used causation in the Granger sense and Pearson’s linear correlation coefficient. Score/results – The existence of the so–called “locomotive effect” was observed for a group of countries: USA–CSSA, CSSA–USA, EA–LA, EA–CSSA, LA–EA, CSSA–EA, MECA–LA, MECA–CSSA, LA–MECA, CSSA–MECA, EDA–CSSA, CSSA–EDA, LA–CSSA, CSSA–LA, meaning a positive domestic shock transmitted to the economic partner, among the countries studied, the analysis is carried out based on annual data of GDP values as a measure of economic activity. CSSA remains the safest economic area and also the most neutral in view of the current global economic and political situation. In the WPE, there is a maximum [full] correlation of 1 for: EDA–USA, MECA–EA, EDA–EA, MECA–EDA and EDA–MECA. These are currently the most dangerous and crisis–prone areas, with potential for transferring crises between them. It is facilitated by territorial cohesion and the geopolitical situation between countries in these economic regions. Relatively high correlations can also be observed in these areas between the analyzed factors: IMP, IMG, IDCF and PC. The risk of transferring a crisis resulting from war between the areas mentioned is the highest here. Other correlations in terms of: USA–EA, USA–LA, EA–USA, LA–USA, LA–EDA, EDA–LA remain at weak or average levels. This is influenced by geographic distance and the lack of strong economic and political ties. Originality/value – the originality of the study results from the topic undertaken. Identification of potential crisis areas and channels of crisis transmission in the current global geopolitical situation constitutes an added [email protected] University of EconomicsAntczak R., 2000, Teoretical aspects of currency crises, “CASE Studies and Analyses”, No. 211.Błaszkiewicz M., Paczyński W., 2021, The economic and social consequences of currency, [in:] Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, M. Dąbrowski (ed.), Amsterdam.Brigulio L., Cordina G., Farrugia N., Vella S., 2009, Economic vulnerability and resilience: Concepts and measurements, “Oxford Development Studies”, No. 3, Vol. 37.Chang R.A., Velasco A., 2001, A Model of Financial Crises in Emerging Markets, “Quarterly Journal of Economics”, Vol. 116, Issue 2.Contagion of Financial Crises, “World Bank”, http://www.worldbank.org [date of access: 25.07.2022].Cutler D., Knaul F., Lozano R., Mendez O., Zurita B., 2002, Financial Crisis, Health Outcomes and Aging: Mexico in the 1980s and 1990s., “Journal of Public Economics”, Vol. 84.Czaja J., 2015 Niektóre aspekty prawne i polityczne kryzysu ukraińskiego i jego wpływ na bezpieczeństwo międzynarodowe, “Bezpieczeństwo. Teoria i Praktyka”, No. 1.Dornbusch R., Park Y.C., Claessens S., 2000, Contagion, monsoonal and domestic turmoil in Indonesia: A case study in the Asian currency crisis, “IMF Working Paper”, No. 00/60.Folfas P., 2014, Wpływ kryzysu gospodarczego na strumienie BIZ napływających do Polski, “International Business and Global Economy”, No. 33.Granger C.W.J., 1969, Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Crossspectral Methods, “Econometrica”, Vol. 3, Issue 37.Guillaumont P., 2004, On the economic vulnerability of low-income countries, [in:] Econom ic vulnerability and resilience of small states, L. Briguglio, E. J. Kisanga (eds.), Malta.IMF, April 2022, https://www.semanticscholar.org [date of access: 15.07.2022].Kindleberger Ch., 1999, Szaleństwo, panika, krach, Warszawa.Mazurek Sz., 2011, Mechanizm międzynarodowej transmisji kryzysów gospodarczych, Toruń.MFW, “World Economic Outlook”, Międzynarodowy Fundusz Walutowy, May 2022.Osińska J., 2008, Ekonometryczna analiza zależności przyczynowych, Toruń.Piech K., 2012, Kryzysy światowe i recesje – teoria, historia, przykłady, Warszawa.Szczukiewicz A., 2021, Transmisja kryzysu azjatyckiego lat 1997‒1998, [in:] Kryzysy światowe i recesje. Teoria, historia, przykłady, K. Piech (ed.), Warszawa.UNCTAD, 2022, http://unctadstat.unctad.org [date of access: 15.07.2022].World Bank, 2022, https://www.worldbank.org [date of access: 15.07.2022].616318

Improvement of survival in Polish stroke patients is related to reduced stroke severity and better control of risk factors : the Krakow Stroke Database

Introduction: In the last decade, the stroke mortality rate in Poland significantly decreased. We hypothesised that stroke severity, the major determinant of outcome, is lowered in Polish stroke patients. Material and methods: We compared the stroke severity in two cohorts of first-ever ischaemic stroke patients admitted within 24 h after stroke onset to the Department of Neurology, Jagiellonian University, Krakow in the years 1994-2000 and 2008-2012. To assess stroke severity we used the National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS). We defined mild stroke as an NIHSS score ≤ 4. Results: We included 816 patients hospitalised in the years 1994-2000 and 569 patients hospitalised in the years 2008-2012. NIHSS score on admission was higher in the former (mean: 12.0 ±7.0 vs. 8.0 ±6.0, p < 0.01), and the frequency of mild stroke was higher in the latter (12.7% vs. 41.8%, p < 0.01). Although the frequency of hypertension (67.3% vs. 81.2%, p < 0.01), diabetes mellitus (20.8% vs. 26.4%, p = 0.02) and atrial fibrillation (20.7% vs. 26.2%, p = 0.02) was higher in patients hospitalised in the years 2008- 2012, the systolic and diastolic blood pressure values and the frequency of fasting hyperglycaemia were lower in this cohort. This cohort also less frequently suffered from hypercholesterolaemia (25.4% vs. 16.3%, p < 0.01). Conclusions: Reduced stroke severity is associated with better recognition and control of risk factors and explains the improvement of survival in Polish stroke patients

Polimorfizm rs2200733 na chromosomie 4q25 jest czynnikiem ryzyka udaru sercowozatorowego związanego z migotaniem przedsionków w populacji polskiej

Background and purpose A few single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on chromosome 4q25, associated with atrial fibrillation (AF), are risk factors for ischaemic stroke. We studied the significance of the SNP rs2200733 on chromosome 4q25 in different types of cardioembolic (CE) stroke. Material and methods: We genotyped 428 controls and 301 CE stroke patients, among whom 197 (65.4%) presented with high risk sources of embolism (CE stroke related to AF) and 104 with medium risk sources (CE stroke unrelated to AF). The SNP rs2200733 was analysed using real-time polymorphism chain reaction. Results Both univariate and multivariate regression analyses showed that the studied variant affected risk of all CE strokes or CE strokes related to AF in recessive and additive models. The two types of CE stroke differed significantly in demographics and distribution of vascular risk factors. Conclusions The SNP rs2200733 on chromosome 4q25 is a risk factor for CE stroke related to AF only

Polimorfizm rs2200733 na chromosomie 4q25 jest czynnikiem ryzyka udaru sercowozatorowego związanego z migotaniem przedsionków w populacji polskiej

Background and purpose A few single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on chromosome 4q25, associated with atrial fibrillation (AF), are risk factors for ischaemic stroke. We studied the significance of the SNP rs2200733 on chromosome 4q25 in different types of cardioembolic (CE) stroke. Material and methods: We genotyped 428 controls and 301 CE stroke patients, among whom 197 (65.4%) presented with high risk sources of embolism (CE stroke related to AF) and 104 with medium risk sources (CE stroke unrelated to AF). The SNP rs2200733 was analysed using real-time polymorphism chain reaction. Results Both univariate and multivariate regression analyses showed that the studied variant affected risk of all CE strokes or CE strokes related to AF in recessive and additive models. The two types of CE stroke differed significantly in demographics and distribution of vascular risk factors. Conclusions The SNP rs2200733 on chromosome 4q25 is a risk factor for CE stroke related to AF only.Wstęp i cel pracy Kilka polimorfizmów na chromosomie 4q25, związanych z migotaniem przedsionków, jest czynnikami ryzyka udaru niedokrwiennego mózgu. Przeanalizowano znaczenie polimorfizmu rs2200733 na chromosomie 4q25 w różnych typach udaru sercowozatorowego. Materiał i metody Badany polimorfizm oznaczono u 428 osób tworzących grupę kontrolną oraz u 301 chorych na udar sercowozatorowy, spośród których 197 (65,4%) miało źródło zatorowości o dużym ryzyku (udar sercowozatorowy związany z migotaniem przedsionków), a 104 o pośrednim ryzyku (udar sercowozatorowy niezwiązany z migotaniem przedsionków). Do analizy polimorfizmu rs2200733 wykorzystano reakcję łańcuchową polimerazy DNA z analizą ilości produktu w czasie rzeczywistym. Wyniki Zarówno jedno-, jak i wieloczynnikowa analiza regresji logistycznej wykazały, że badany wariant wpływał na ryzyko wystąpienia wszystkich udarów sercowozatorowych oraz tych związanych z migotaniem przedsionków w modelach recesywnym i addytywnym. Dwa typy udaru sercowozatorowego różniły się w zakresie czynników demograficznych oraz rozkładu naczyniowych czynników ryzyka. Wnioski Polimorfizm rs2200733 na chromosomie 4q25 jest czynnikiem ryzyka jedynie udaru sercowozatorowego związanego z migotaniem przedsionków

An enterprise’s financial stability and its sustainable growth. A risk-based perspective

Rating of major factors affecting the financial stability of an enterprise; discussion of a model of sustainable growth of an enterprise with a focus on growth optimising. The core problem of this paper is the financial stability of an enterprise considered as an entity conducting business activity. The paper uses in a research the analysis and assessment of an optimum model of a sustainable growth of an enterprise. Research hypothesis: risk is a essential building block of the sustainable growth idea. The reasoning unwinds around the following five fundamental themes: (i) Description of a sustainable growth of an enterprise; (ii) The essence of an enterprise’s stability; (iii) Comparison of an enterprise’s sustainable growth and its stability; (iv) An enterprise’s sustainable growth in a risk-based perspective; (v) Analysis and assessment of a model of an enterprise’s sustainable growth. One may use sustainable growth model to show how the steady growth rate for an enterprise changes in response to changes in the decisions made at the enterprise. This enables the management to track the effect of strategic decisions on the dynamics of the enterprise’s growth rate. This also supports the creation of the enterprise’s policy by promoting an aggressive and more risk-laden strategy, which would ensure a growth rate above the sustainable growth rate; or a highly conservative strategy, which, however, would not ensure even the sustainable growth rate, satisfactory to the shareholders and prospective investors. The implementation of sustainable growth principles requires the organisation to make a significant effort to present its product or services offering on the one hand, and to implement raw material procurement procedures, use best manufacturing practices and create modern distribution systems on the other. A material role in the process is played by risk as a essential building block of the sustainable growth idea

The risk of the increasing divergence of the eurozone and the problem of macroeconomic imbalances in a three-gap model

The negative effects of the last financial and economic crisis as seen in the deterioration of the state of public finances of the eurozone Member States highlighted weaknesses in the present institutional system. The fact that structural reforms have stopped, as well as unfavourable demographic changes, make the convergence processes and the growth of eurozone economies slow down. Increasing divergence with regard to trade balance deficits, budget deficits, investments and private savings is a significant limiting factor here. The aim of this paper is to answer the question as to whether the present situation of the eurozone economies is of a convergent or divergent nature. For this purpose the following have been analysed and assessed: the last financial crisis' consequences for eurozone countries; basic indicators related to the EU Member States' macroeconomic situation; domestic economies convergence/divergence in the eurozone - in relation to other Member States; increased divergence of regional development within a country, the so-called regional divergence; criteria of convergence; macroeconomic factors and – as mentioned before – the listed indicators resulting from the research method adopted . The method of study in this paper was the analysis of the risk of the eurozone's macroeconomic imbalance on the basis of the three-gap model.Results of the analysis showed significant imbalances within individual economies in terms of all the above mentioned parameters. This analysis showed the increasing trend related to eurozone divergence