Evaluation of algorithms for estimating wheat acreage from multispectral scanner data

The author has identified the following significant results. Fourteen different classification algorithms were tested for their ability to estimate the proportion of wheat in an area. For some algorithms, accuracy of classification in field centers was observed. The data base consisted of ground truth and LANDSAT data from 55 sections (1 x 1 mile) from five LACIE intensive test sites in Kansas and Texas. Signatures obtained from training fields selected at random from the ground truth were generally representative of the data distribution patterns. LIMMIX, an algorithm that chooses a pure signature when the data point is close enough to a signature mean and otherwise chooses the best mixture of a pair of signatures, reduced the average absolute error to 6.1% and the bias to 1.0%. QRULE run with a null test achieved a similar reduction

Estimating proportions of objects from multispectral scanner data

Progress is reported in developing and testing methods of estimating, from multispectral scanner data, proportions of target classes in a scene when there are a significiant number of boundary pixels. Procedures were developed to exploit: (1) prior information concerning the number of object classes normally occurring in a pixel, and (2) spectral information extracted from signals of adjoining pixels. Two algorithms, LIMMIX and nine-point mixtures, are described along with supporting processing techniques. An important by-product of the procedures, in contrast to the previous method, is that they are often appropriate when the number of spectral bands is small. Preliminary tests on LANDSAT data sets, where target classes were (1) lakes and ponds, and (2) agricultural crops were encouraging

Mean Field Voter Model of Election to the House of Representatives in Japan

In this study, we propose a mechanical model of a plurality election based on a mean field voter model. We assume that there are three candidates in each electoral district, i.e., one from the ruling party, one from the main opposition party, and one from other political parties. The voters are classified as fixed supporters and herding (floating) voters with ratios of $1-p$ and $p$, respectively. Fixed supporters make decisions based on their information and herding voters make the same choice as another randomly selected voter. The equilibrium vote-share probability density of herding voters follows a Dirichlet distribution. We estimate the composition of fixed supporters in each electoral district and $p$ using data from elections to the House of Representatives in Japan (43rd to 47th). The spatial inhomogeneity of fixed supporters explains the long-range spatial and temporal correlations. The estimated values of $p$ are close to the estimates obtained from a survey.Comment: 11 pages, 7 figure

Coding, Analysis, Interpretation, and Recognition of Facial Expressions

We describe a computer vision system for observing facial motion by using an optimal estimation optical flow method coupled with a geometric and a physical (muscle) model describing the facial structure. Our method produces a reliable parametric representation of the face's independent muscle action groups, as well as an accurate estimate of facial motion. Previous efforts at analysis of facial expression have been based on the Facial Action Coding System (FACS), a representation developed in order to allow human psychologists to code expression from static pictures. To avoid use of this heuristic coding scheme, we have used our computer vision system to probabilistically characterize facial motion and muscle activation in an experimental population, thus deriving a new, more accurate representation of human facial expressions that we call FACS+. We use this new representation for recognition in two different ways. The first method uses the physics-based model directly, by recognizing..

Dynamical and bursty interactions in social networks

We present a modeling framework for dynamical and bursty contact networks made of agents in social interaction. We consider agents' behavior at short time scales, in which the contact network is formed by disconnected cliques of different sizes. At each time a random agent can make a transition from being isolated to being part of a group, or vice-versa. Different distributions of contact times and inter-contact times between individuals are obtained by considering transition probabilities with memory effects, i.e. the transition probabilities for each agent depend both on its state (isolated or interacting) and on the time elapsed since the last change of state. The model lends itself to analytical and numerical investigations. The modeling framework can be easily extended, and paves the way for systematic investigations of dynamical processes occurring on rapidly evolving dynamical networks, such as the propagation of an information, or spreading of diseases

A planetary nervous system for social mining and collective awareness

We present a research roadmap of a Planetary Nervous System (PNS), capable of sensing and mining the digital breadcrumbs of human activities and unveiling the knowledge hidden in the big data for addressing the big questions about social complexity. We envision the PNS as a globally distributed, self-organizing, techno-social system for answering analytical questions about the status of world-wide society, based on three pillars: social sensing, social mining and the idea of trust networks and privacy-aware social mining. We discuss the ingredients of a science and a technology necessary to build the PNS upon the three mentioned pillars, beyond the limitations of their respective state-of-art. Social sensing is aimed at developing better methods for harvesting the big data from the techno-social ecosystem and make them available for mining, learning and analysis at a properly high abstraction level. Social mining is the problem of discovering patterns and models of human behaviour from the sensed data across the various social dimensions by data mining, machine learning and social network analysis. Trusted networks and privacy-aware social mining is aimed at creating a new deal around the questions of privacy and data ownership empowering individual persons with full awareness and control on own personal data, so that users may allow access and use of their data for their own good and the common good. The PNS will provide a goal-oriented knowledge discovery framework, made of technology and people, able to configure itself to the aim of answering questions about the pulse of global society. Given an analytical request, the PNS activates a process composed by a variety of interconnected tasks exploiting the social sensing and mining methods within the transparent ecosystem provided by the trusted network. The PNS we foresee is the key tool for individual and collective awareness for the knowledge society. We need such a tool for everyone to become fully aware of how powerful is the knowledge of our society we can achieve by leveraging our wisdom as a crowd, and how important is that everybody participates both as a consumer and as a producer of the social knowledge, for it to become a trustable, accessible, safe and useful public good. Graphical abstrac

Improving official statistics in emerging markets using machine learning and mobile phone data

Mobile phones are one of the fastest growing technologies in the developing world with global penetration rates reaching 90%. Mobile phone data, also called CDR, are generated everytime phones are used and recorded by carriers at scale. CDR have generated groundbreaking insights in public health, official statistics, and logistics. However, the fact that most phones in developing countries are prepaid means that the data lacks key information about the user, including gender and other demographic variables. This precludes numerous uses of this data in social science and development economic research. It furthermore severely prevents the development of humanitarian applications such as the use of mobile phone data to target aid towards the most vulnerable groups during crisis. We developed a framework to extract more than 1400 features from standard mobile phone data and used them to predict useful individual characteristics and group estimates. We here present a systematic cross-country study of the applicability of machine learning for dataset augmentation at low cost. We validate our framework by showing how it can be used to reliably predict gender and other information for more than half a million people in two countries. We show how standard machine learning algorithms trained on only 10,000 users are sufficient to predict individual’s gender with an accuracy ranging from 74.3 to 88.4% in a developed country and from 74.5 to 79.7% in a developing country using only metadata. This is significantly higher than previous approaches and, once calibrated, gives highly accurate estimates of gender balance in groups. Performance suffers only marginally if we reduce the training size to 5,000, but significantly decreases in a smaller training set. We finally show that our indicators capture a large range of behavioral traits using factor analysis and that the framework can be used to predict other indicators of vulnerability such as age or socio-economic status. Mobile phone data has a great potential for good and our framework allows this data to be augmented with vulnerability and other information at a fraction of the cost

Analytical reasoning task reveals limits of social learning in networks

Social learning -by observing and copying others- is a highly successful cultural mechanism for adaptation, outperforming individual information acquisition and experience. Here, we investigate social learning in the context of the uniquely human capacity for reflective, analytical reasoning. A hallmark of the human mind is our ability to engage analytical reasoning, and suppress false associative intuitions. Through a set of lab-based network experiments, we find that social learning fails to propagate this cognitive strategy. When people make false intuitive conclusions, and are exposed to the analytic output of their peers, they recognize and adopt this correct output. But they fail to engage analytical reasoning in similar subsequent tasks. Thus, humans exhibit an 'unreflective copying bias,' which limits their social learning to the output, rather than the process, of their peers' reasoning -even when doing so requires minimal effort and no technical skill. In contrast to much recent work on observation-based social learning, which emphasizes the propagation of successful behavior through copying, our findings identify a limit on the power of social networks in situations that require analytical reasoning

High resolution dynamical mapping of social interactions with active RFID

In this paper we present an experimental framework to gather data on face-to-face social interactions between individuals, with a high spatial and temporal resolution. We use active Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) devices that assess contacts with one another by exchanging low-power radio packets. When individuals wear the beacons as a badge, a persistent radio contact between the RFID devices can be used as a proxy for a social interaction between individuals. We present the results of a pilot study recently performed during a conference, and a subsequent preliminary data analysis, that provides an assessment of our method and highlights its versatility and applicability in many areas concerned with human dynamics

Social network dynamics of face-to-face interactions

The recent availability of data describing social networks is changing our understanding of the "microscopic structure" of a social tie. A social tie indeed is an aggregated outcome of many social interactions such as face-to-face conversations or phone-calls. Analysis of data on face-to-face interactions shows that such events, as many other human activities, are bursty, with very heterogeneous durations. In this paper we present a model for social interactions at short time scales, aimed at describing contexts such as conference venues in which individuals interact in small groups. We present a detailed anayltical and numerical study of the model's dynamical properties, and show that it reproduces important features of empirical data. The model allows for many generalizations toward an increasingly realistic description of social interactions. In particular in this paper we investigate the case where the agents have intrinsic heterogeneities in their social behavior, or where dynamic variations of the local number of individuals are included. Finally we propose this model as a very flexible framework to investigate how dynamical processes unfold in social networks.Comment: 20 pages, 25 figure