Adaptive immunity selects against malaria infection blocking mutations

The mutation responsible for Duffy negativity, which impedes Plasmodium vivax infection, has reached high frequencies in certain human populations. Conversely, mutations capable of blocking the more lethal P. falciparum have not succeeded in malarious zones. Here we present an evolutionary-epidemiological model of malaria which demonstrates that if adaptive immunity against the most virulent effects of malaria is gained rapidly by the host, mutations which prevent infection per se are unlikely to succeed. Our results (i) explain the rarity of strain-transcending P. falciparum infection blocking adaptations in humans; (ii) make the surprising prediction that mutations which block P. falciparum infection are most likely to be found in populations experiencing low or infrequent malaria transmission, and (iii) predict that immunity against some of the virulent effects of P. vivax malaria may be built up over the course of many infections

Rapid mortality transition of Pacific Islands in the 19th century

The depopulation of Pacific islands during the 16th to 19th centuries is a striking example of historical mass mortality due to infectious disease. Pacific Island populations have not been subject to such cataclysmic infectious disease mortality since. Here we explore the processes which could have given rise to this shift in infectious disease mortality patterns. We show, using mathematical models, that the population dynamics exhibited by Pacific Island populations are unlikely to be the result of Darwinian evolution. We propose that extreme mortality during first-contact epidemics is a function of epidemiological isolation, not a lack of previous selection. If, as pathogens become established in populations, extreme mortality is rapidly suppressed by herd immunity, Pacific Island population mortality patterns can be explained with no need to invoke genetic change. We discuss the mechanisms by which this could occur, including (i) a link between the proportion of the population transmitting infectious agents and case-fatality rates, and (ii) the course of infection with pathogens such as measles and smallpox being more severe in adults than in children. Overall, we consider the present-day risk of mass mortality from newly emerging infectious diseases is unlikely to be greater on Pacific islands than in other geographical areas

Epistasis and the sensitivity of phenotypic screens for beta thalassaemia

Genetic disorders of haemoglobin, particularly the sickle cell diseases and the alpha and beta thalassaemias, are the commonest inherited disorders worldwide. The majority of affected births occur in low-income and lower-middle income countries. Screening programmes are a vital tool to counter these haemoglobinopathies by: (i) identifying individual carriers and allowing them to make informed reproductive choices, and (ii) generating population level gene-frequency estimates, to help ensure the optimal allocation of public health resources. For both of these functions it is vital that the screen performed is suitably sensitive. One popular first-stage screening option to detect carriers of beta thalassaemia in low-income countries is the One Tube Osmotic Fragility Test (OTOFT). Here we introduce a population genetic framework within which to quantify the likely sensitivity and specificity of the OTOFT in different epidemiological contexts. We demonstrate that interactions between the carrier states for beta thalassaemia and alpha thalassaemia, glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency and Southeast Asian Ovalocytosis have the potential to reduce the sensitivity of OTOFTs for beta thalassaemia heterozygosity to below 70%. Our results therefore caution against the widespread application of OTOFTs in regions where these erythrocyte variants co-occur

Sickle haemoglobin, haemoglobin C and malaria mortality feedbacks.

BACKGROUND: Sickle haemoglobin (HbS) and haemoglobin C (HbC) are both caused by point mutations in the beta globin gene, and both offer substantial malaria protection. Despite the fact that the blood disorder caused by homozygosity for HbC is much less severe than that caused by homozygosity for HbS (sickle cell anaemia), it is the sickle mutation which has come to dominate many old-world malarious regions, whilst HbC is highly restricted in its geographical distribution. It has been suggested that this discrepancy may be due to sickle cell heterozygotes enjoying a higher level of malaria protection than heterozygotes for HbC. A higher fitness of sickle cell heterozygotes relative to HbC heterozygotes could certainly have allowed the sickle cell allele to spread more rapidly. However, observations that carrying either HbC or HbS enhances an individual's capacity to transmit malaria parasites to mosquitoes could also shed light on this conundrum. METHODS: A population genetic model was used to investigate the evolutionary consequences of the strength of malaria selection being correlated with either HbS frequency or HbC frequency. RESULTS: If the selection pressure from malaria is positively correlated with the frequency of either HbS or HbC, it is easier for HbS to succeed in the competitive interaction between the two alleles. CONCLUSIONS: A feedback process whereby the presence of variant haemoglobins increases the level of malaria selection in a population could have contributed to the global success of HbS relative to HbC, despite the former's higher blood disorder cost

Detecting HLA-infectious disease associations for multi-strain pathogens

Human Leukocyte Antigen (HLA) molecules play a vital role helping our immune system to detect the presence of pathogens. Previous work to try and ascertain which HLA alleles offer advantages against particular pathogens has generated inconsistent results. We have constructed an epidemiological model to understand why this may occur. The model captures the epidemiology of a multi strain pathogen for which the host's ability to generate immunological memory responses to particular strains depends on that host's HLA genotype. We find that an HLA allele's ability to protect against infection, as measured in a case control study, depends on the population frequency of that HLA allele. Furthermore, our capability to detect associations between HLA alleles and infection with a multi strain pathogen may be affected by the properties of the pathogen itself (i.e R0 and length of infectious period). Both host and pathogen genetics must be considered in order to identify true HLA associations. However, in the absence of detailed pathogen genetic information, a negative correlation between the frequency of an HLA type and its apparent protectiveness against disease caused by multi strain pathogen is a strong indication that the HLA type in question is well adapted to a subset of strains of that pathogen

Kenny mediates selective autophagic degradation of the IKK complex to control innate immune responses

Selective autophagy is a catabolic process with which cellular material is specifically targeted for degradation by lysosomes. The function of selective autophagic degradation of self-components in the regulation of innate immunity is still unclear. Here we show that Drosophila Kenny, the homologue of mammalian IKKγ, is a selective autophagy receptor that mediates the degradation of the IB kinase complex. Selective autophagic degradation of the IκB kinase complex prevents constitutive activation of the immune deficiency pathway in response to commensal microbiota. We show that autophagy-deficient flies have a systemic innate immune response that promotes a hyperplasia phenotype in the midgut. Remarkably, human IKKγ does not interact with mammalian Atg8-family proteins. Using a mathematical model, we suggest mechanisms by which pathogen selection might have driven the loss of LIR-motif functionality during evolution. Our results suggest that there may have been an autophagy-related switch during the evolution of the IKKγ proteins in metazoans

The impacts of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose separation and targeting on the COVID-19 epidemic in England

In late 2020, the JCVI (the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, which provides advice to the Department of Health and Social Care, England) made two important recommendations for the initial roll-out of the COVID-19 vaccine. The first was that vaccines should be targeted to older and vulnerable people, with the aim of maximally preventing disease rather than infection. The second was to increase the interval between first and second doses from 3 to 12 weeks. Here, we re-examine these recommendations through a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 infection in England. We show that targeting the most vulnerable had the biggest immediate impact (compared to targeting younger individuals who may be more responsible for transmission). The 12-week delay was also highly beneficial, estimated to have averted between 32-72 thousand hospital admissions and 4-9 thousand deaths over the first ten months of the campaign (December 2020–September 2021) depending on the assumed interaction between dose interval and efficacy

Reverse immunodynamics : a new method for identifying targets of protective immunity

Despite a dramatic increase in our ability to catalogue variation among pathogen genomes, we have made far fewer advances in using this information to identify targets of protective immunity. Epidemiological models predict that strong immune selection can cause antigenic variants to structure into genetically discordant sets of antigenic types (e.g. serotypes). A corollary of this theory is that targets of immunity may be identified by searching for non-overlapping associations of amino acids among co-circulating antigenic variants. We propose a novel population genetics methodology that combines such predictions with phylogenetic analyses to identify genetic loci (epitopes) under strong immune selection. We apply this concept to the AMA-1 protein of the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum and find evidence of epitopes among certain regions of low variability which could render them ideal vaccine candidates. The proposed method can be applied to a myriad of multi-strain pathogens for which vast amounts of genetic data has been collected in recent years

The impact of school reopening on the spread of COVID-19 in England

By mid-May, cases of COVID-19 in the UK had been declining for over a month; a multi-phase emergence from lockdown was planned, including a scheduled partial reopening of schools on 1st June. Although evidence suggests that children generally display mild symptoms, the size of the school-age population means the total impact of reopening schools is unclear. Here, we present work from mid-May that focused on the imminent opening of schools and consider what these results imply for future policy. We compared eight strategies for reopening primary and secondary schools in England. Modifying a transmission model fitted to UK SARS-CoV-2 data, we assessed how reopening schools affects contact patterns, anticipated secondary infections and the relative change in the reproductive number, R. We determined the associated public health impact and its sensitivity to changes in social-distancing within the wider community. We predicted reopening schools with half-sized classes or focused on younger children was unlikely to push R above one. Older children generally have more social contacts, so reopening secondary schools results in more cases than reopening primary schools, while reopening both could have pushed R above one in some regions. Reductions in community social-distancing were found to outweigh and exacerbate any impacts of reopening. In particular, opening schools when the reproductive number R is already above one generates the largest increase in cases. Our work indicates that while any school reopening will result in increased mixing and infection amongst children and the wider population, reopening schools alone in June was unlikely to push R above one. Ultimately, reopening decisions are a difficult trade-off between epidemiological consequences and the emotional, educational and developmental needs of children. Into the future, there are difficult questions about what controls can be instigated such that schools can remain open if cases increase

Diversity of HLA Class I and Class II blocks and conserved extended haplotypes in Lacandon Mayans.

Here we studied HLA blocks and haplotypes in a group of 218 Lacandon Maya Native American using a high-resolution next generation sequencing (NGS) method. We assessed the genetic diversity of HLA class I and class II in this population, and determined the most probable ancestry of Lacandon Maya HLA class I and class II haplotypes. Importantly, this Native American group showed a high degree of both HLA homozygosity and linkage disequilibrium across the HLA region and also lower class II HLA allelic diversity than most previously reported populations (including other Native American groups). Distinctive alleles present in the Lacandon population include HLA-A*24:14 and HLA-B*40:08. Furthermore, in Lacandons we observed a high frequency of haplotypes containing the allele HLA-DRB1*04:11, a relatively frequent allele in comparison with other neighboring indigenous groups. The specific demographic history of the Lacandon population including inbreeding, as well as pathogen selection, may have elevated the frequencies of a small number of HLA class II alleles and DNA blocks. To assess the possible role of different selective pressures in determining Native American HLA diversity, we evaluated the relationship between genetic diversity at HLA-A, HLA-B and HLA-DRB1 and pathogen richness for a global dataset and for Native American populations alone. In keeping with previous studies of such relationships we included distance from Africa as a covariate. After correction for multiple comparisons we did not find any significant relationship between pathogen diversity and HLA genetic diversity (as measured by polymorphism information content) in either our global dataset or the Native American subset of the dataset. We found the expected negative relationship between genetic diversity and distance from Africa in the global dataset, but no relationship between HLA genetic diversity and distance from Africa when Native American populations were considered alone