A mixed integer linear program to compress transition probability matrices in Markov chain bootstrapping

Bootstrapping time series is one of the most acknowledged tools to study the statistical properties of an evolutive phenomenon. An important class of bootstrapping methods is based on the assumption that the sampled phenomenon evolves according to a Markov chain. This assumption does not apply when the process takes values in a continuous set, as it frequently happens with time series related to economic and financial phenomena. In this paper we apply the Markov chain theory for bootstrapping continuous-valued processes, starting from a suitable discretization of the support that provides the state space of a Markov chain of order k≥1. Even for small k, the number of rows of the transition probability matrix is generally too large and, in many practical cases, it may incorporate much more information than it is really required to replicate the phenomenon satisfactorily. The paper aims to study the problem of compressing the transition probability matrix while preserving the “law” characterising the process that generates the observed time series, in order to obtain bootstrapped series that maintain the typical features of the observed time series. For this purpose, we formulate a partitioning problem of the set of rows of such a matrix and propose a mixed integer linear program specifically tailored for this particular problem. We also provide an empirical analysis by applying our model to the time series of Spanish and German electricity prices, and we show that, in these medium size real-life instances, bootstrapped time series reproduce the typical features of the ones under observation. This is a post-peer-review, pre-copyedit version of an article published in Annals of Operations Research volume. The final authenticated version is available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10479-016-2181-

Children with Cerebral Palsy can imagine actions like their normally developed peers

The present study aimed at assessing whether children with Cerebral Palsy (CP) can imagine object directed actions similarly to their normally developed peers. We asked children with CP (n = 12) and paired healthy controls (n = 12) to imagine in first person perspective eight daily actions, after observing them through videoclips presented on a computer screen. During motor imagery (MI) children were interrupted at a specific timepoint (e.g., at 2.5 s) from the start. Two frames extracted from the videoclips were then presented on the screen. One of the two depicted the correct timepoint at which the imagined action was interrupted, while the other represented an earlier or later timepoint. Children had to respond by pressing the key associated to the correct frame. Children also underwent VMIQ-2 questionnaire. Both groups performed similarly in the questionnaire and in the requested task, where they showed the same error rate. Errors mainly concerned the later frame, suggesting a similar strategy to solve the task in the two groups. The results support the view that children with CP can imagine actions similarly to their normally developed peers. This encourages the use of MI as a rehabilitative tool in children with motor impairment

Modified percutaneous ethanol injection of parathyroid adenoma in primary hyperparathyroidism.

Surgery is the treatment of choice for symptomatic primary hyperparathyroidism; unlikely few patients do not meet established surgical criteria or have comorbid conditions that prohibit surgery. In these subjects, medical therapy alone offers little hope for a sustained long normocalcemic period. However percutaneous ethanol injection (PEI) may represent an alternative therapeutic procedure. It is currently in use for the treatment of secondary or tertiary hyperparathyroidism, however, few studies or case reports suggest it for the treatment of primary hyperparathyroidism. Moreover, little information is available about the long-term follow-up, where incomplete necrosis or the spreading of ethanol in the surrounding tissues is often reported. We believe that many of the side effects could be correlated to procedure itself. Taking these experiences into account, we have reasoned that in order to limit these side effects, we had to modify the standard PEI procedure. We reported this preliminary experience describing our modified PEI procedure

Feasibility and Predictive Performance of a Triage System for Patients with Cancer During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Background: Triage procedures have been implemented to limit hospital access and minimize infection risk among patients with cancer during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak. In the absence of prospective evidence, we aimed to evaluate the predictive performance of a triage system in the oncological setting. Materials and Methods: This retrospective cohort study analyzes hospital admissions to the oncology and hematology department of Udine, Italy, during the COVID-19 pandemic (March 30 to April 30, 2020). A total of 3,923 triage procedures were performed, and data of 1,363 individual patients were reviewed. Results: A self-report triage questionnaire identified 6% of triage-positive procedures, with a sensitivity of 66.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 43.0%–85.4%), a specificity of 94.3% (95% CI, 93.5%–95.0%), and a positive predictive value of 5.9% (95% CI, 4.3%–8.0%) for the identification of patients who were not admitted to the hospital after medical review. Patients with thoracic cancer (odds ratio [OR], 1.69; 95% CI, 1.13–2.53, p =.01), younger age (OR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.15–2.01, p <.01), and body temperature at admission ≥37°C (OR, 9.52; 95% CI, 5.44–16.6, p <.0001) had increased risk of positive triage. Direct hospital access was warranted to 93.5% of cases, a further 6% was accepted after medical evaluation, whereas 0.5% was refused at admission. Conclusion: A self-report questionnaire has a low positive predictive value to triage patients with cancer and suspected severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) symptoms. Differential diagnosis with tumor- or treatment-related symptoms is always required to avoid unnecessary treatment delays. Body temperature measurement improves the triage process's overall sensitivity, and widespread SARS-CoV-2 testing should be implemented to identify asymptomatic carriers. Implications for Practice: This is the first study to provide data on the predictive performance of a triage system in the oncological setting during the coronavirus disease outbreak. A questionnaire-based triage has a low positive predictive value to triage patients with cancer and suspected severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) symptoms, and a differential diagnosis with tumor- or treatment-related symptoms is mandatory to avoid unnecessary treatment delays. Consequently, adequate recourses should be reallocated for a triage implementation in the oncological setting. Of note, body temperature measurement improves the overall sensitivity of the triage process, and widespread testing for SARS-CoV-2 infection should be implemented to identify asymptomatic carriers

A cryogenic liquid-mirror telescope on the moon to study the early universe

We have studied the feasibility and scientific potential of zenith observing liquid mirror telescopes having 20 to 100 m diameters located on the moon. They would carry out deep infrared surveys to study the distant universe and follow up discoveries made with the 6 m James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), with more detailed images and spectroscopic studies. They could detect objects 100 times fainter than JWST, observing the first, high-red shift stars in the early universe and their assembly into galaxies. We explored the scientific opportunities, key technologies and optimum location of such telescopes. We have demonstrated critical technologies. For example, the primary mirror would necessitate a high-reflectivity liquid that does not evaporate in the lunar vacuum and remains liquid at less than 100K: We have made a crucial demonstration by successfully coating an ionic liquid that has negligible vapor pressure. We also successfully experimented with a liquid mirror spinning on a superconducting bearing, as will be needed for the cryogenic, vacuum environment of the telescope. We have investigated issues related to lunar locations, concluding that locations within a few km of a pole are ideal for deep sky cover and long integration times. We have located ridges and crater rims within 0.5 degrees of the North Pole that are illuminated for at least some sun angles during lunar winter, providing power and temperature control. We also have identified potential problems, like lunar dust. Issues raised by our preliminary study demand additional in-depth analyses. These issues must be fully examined as part of a scientific debate we hope to start with the present article.Comment: 35 pages, 11 figures. To appear in Astrophysical Journal June 20 200

Effect of cattle trampling and farm machinery traffic on soil compaction of an Entic Haplustoll in a semiarid region of Argentina

Soil compaction has detrimental effects on the physical, mechanical and hydraulic properties of soils, and affects important soil processes and function, and crop productivity. This work was conducted to investigate soil compaction impacts in integrated arable croppinglivestock systems managed under conventional tillage (CT) and no-tillage (NT). The work examined the combined effects of cattle trampling and farm machinery traffic on: soil strength, soil deformation, and water infiltration into soil. The following treatments were applied to soil (Entic Haplustoll, 60% sand) managed under CT and NT: three traffic intensities (1, 5, 7 passes) performed with light (2WD, 53 kN) and heavy (4WD, 100.4 kN) tractors, and two stocking densities (400 and 700 kg ha-1 ), respectively. Controls were also used to represent the condition of the soil without any effect of livestock or field traffic. In both tillage systems, soil penetration resistance (strength) increased and water infiltration into soil decreased as traffic intensities or stocking rates applied increased. There was a significant traffic intensity × stocking rate interaction, which influenced the depth and extent of soil compaction at depth. Despite these results, stubble grazing during fallow should not be discouraged as this practice offers mixed farming systems several agronomic and financial benefits. If stubble was to be grazed, the system would need to be carefully managed: (1) avoid ‘random’ traffic using permanent or semipermanent traffic paths to minimise the field wheeled area, (2) vacate livestock from the field, or confine it to a sacrificial area, when the soil water content exceeds a critical level above which soil damage is likely, and (3) maintain more than 60%–70% ground cover. Tillage repair treatments can be targeted to those sacrificial or ‘hot-spots’ areas so that localised, as supposed to widespread, compaction problems are rectified before the next crop is established

Quantum memory for photons: I. Dark state polaritons

An ideal and reversible transfer technique for the quantum state between light and metastable collective states of matter is presented and analyzed in detail. The method is based on the control of photon propagation in coherently driven 3-level atomic media, in which the group velocity is adiabatically reduced to zero. Form-stable coupled excitations of light and matter (``dark-state polaritons'') associated with the propagation of quantum fields in Electromagnetically Induced Transparency are identified, their basic properties discussed and their application for quantum memories for light analyzed.Comment: 13 pages, 6 figures, paragraph on photon echo adde

A phase II, multicentre trial of decitabine in higher-risk chronic myelomonocytic leukemia

Chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (CMML) is a complex clonal hematological disorder classified among myelodysplastic (MDS)/myeloproliferative neoplasms. Prognosis is poor and there is a lack of effective treatments. The hypomethylating agent decitabine has shown activity against MDS and elderly acute myeloid leukemia, but there is little data focusing specifically on its efficacy in CMML. In this prospective, phase 2 Italian study, CMML patients received intravenous decitabine 20 mg/m2per day on Days 1-5 of a 28-day treatment cycle. Response was evaluated after four and six cycles; patients responding at the end of six cycles could continue treatment with decitabine. Forty-three patients were enrolled; >50% were high-risk according to four CMML-specific scoring systems. In the intent-to-treat population (n=42), the overall response rate after six cycles was 47.6%, with seven complete responses (16.6%), eight marrow responses (19%), one partial response (2.4%) and four hematological improvements (9.5%). After a median follow-up of 51.5 months (range: 44.4-57.2), median overall survival was 17 months, with responders having a significantly longer survival than non-responders (P=0.02). Grade 3/4 anemia, neutropenia and thrombocytopenia occurred in 28.6%, 50% and 38% of patients, respectively. Decitabine appears to be an effective and well-tolerated treatment for patients with high-risk CMML