Template-Based Static Posterior Inference for Bayesian Probabilistic Programming

In Bayesian probabilistic programming, a central problem is to estimate the normalised posterior distribution (NPD) of a probabilistic program with conditioning. Prominent approximate approaches to address this problem include Markov chain Monte Carlo and variational inference, but neither can generate guaranteed outcomes within limited time. Moreover, most existing formal approaches that perform exact inference for NPD are restricted to programs with closed-form solutions or bounded loops/recursion. A recent work (Beutner et al., PLDI 2022) derived guaranteed bounds for NPD over programs with unbounded recursion. However, as this approach requires recursion unrolling, it suffers from the path explosion problem. Furthermore, previous approaches do not consider score-recursive probabilistic programs that allow score statements inside loops, which is non-trivial and requires careful treatment to ensure the integrability of the normalising constant in NPD. In this work, we propose a novel automated approach to derive bounds for NPD via polynomial templates. Our approach can handle probabilistic programs with unbounded while loops and continuous distributions with infinite supports. The novelties in our approach are three-fold: First, we use polynomial templates to circumvent the path explosion problem from recursion unrolling; Second, we derive a novel multiplicative variant of Optional Stopping Theorem that addresses the integrability issue in score-recursive programs; Third, to increase the accuracy of the derived bounds via polynomial templates, we propose a novel technique of truncation that truncates a program into a bounded range of program values. Experiments over a wide range of benchmarks demonstrate that our approach is time-efficient and can derive bounds for NPD that are comparable with (or tighter than) the recursion-unrolling approach (Beutner et al., PLDI 2022)

Diachronous end-Permian terrestrial ecosystem collapse with its origin in wildfires

The Permian-Triassic Mass Extinction (PTME) is the greatest biodiversity crisis in Earth history and while the marine crisis is increasingly well constrained, the timing and cause(s) of terrestrial losses remain poorly understood. There have been suggestions that the End-Permian Terrestrial Collapse (EPTC) pre-dated, was synchronous with or post-dated the marine crisis, or even occurred asynchronously in different regions. We address these conflicting interpretations through a detailed geochemical study of a terrestrial sequence in the Liujiang Coalfield on the North China Plate (NCP) in which we apply zircon U-Pb dating of tuffaceous claystone, kerogen identification, and analysis of organic carbon isotopic composition (δ13Corg), total organic carbon (TOC), continental weathering (via the chemical index of alteration; CIA) and Ni concentrations. Our study constrains the Permian-Triassic boundary (PTB) near the base of bed 20 in our sequence at approximately 251.9 ± 1.1 Ma, immediately above a Ni anomaly also known from other terrestrial sequences and the marine PTME. Organic carbon isotope chemostratigraphy together with evidence for algal blooms and the presence of mudstone clasts suggests that the onset of the EPTC in the NCP was synchronous with the crisis in low latitudes (e.g., South China), but was about 310 kyr later than the EPTC in higher southerly latitudes (e.g., Australia). The EPTC predates the marine PTME. Kerogen macerals suggest that a phase of increased wildfire was sustained from the onset of the EPTC in the NCP until the marine PTME interval, implicating wildfire as a major driver of the EPTC (at least in low latitudes) that, in turn, had devastating consequences for the marine realm

A New Adaptive Elastic Net Method for Cluster Analysis

Clustering is inherently a highly challenging research problem. The elastic net algorithm is designed to solve the traveling salesman problem initially, now is verified to be an efficient tool for data clustering in n-dimensional space. In this paper, by introducing a nearest neighbor learning method and a local search preferred strategy, we proposed a new Self-Organizing NN approach, called the Adaptive Clustering Elastic Net (ACEN) to solve the cluster analysis problems. ACEN consists of the adaptive clustering elastic net phase and a local search preferred phase. The first phase is used to find a cyclic permutation of the points as to minimize the total distances of the adjacent points, and adopts the Euclidean distance as the criteria to assign each point. The local search preferred phase aims to minimize the total dissimilarity within each clusters. Simulations were made on a large number of homogeneous and nonhomogeneous artificial clusters in n dimensions and a set of publicly standard problems available from UCI. Simulation results show that compared with classical partitional clustering methods, ACEN can provide better clustering solutions and do more efficiently

Loss-of-function mutations with circadian rhythm regulator Per1/Per2 lead to premature ovarian insufficiency

The mechanism underlying premature ovarian insufficiency remains incompletely understood. Here we report that mice with Per1m/m; Per2m/m double mutations display a decrease in female fertility starting approximately at 20 weeks old, with significantly less pups born from 32 weeks old onwards. Histological analysis revealed that a significant reduction of ovarian follicles was observed in the Per1/Per2 mutants compared with the littermate controls examined at 26 and 52 weeks old, while the difference was not statistically significant between the two groups at 3 and 8 weeks old. We further showed that vascular development including the ovarian follicle associated vascular growth appeared normal in the Per1/Per2 mutant mice, although clock genes were reported to regulate angiogenesis in zebrafish. The findings imply that loss-of-function mutations with Per1/Per2 result in a premature depletion of ovarian follicle reserve leading to the decline of reproductive capacity.Peer reviewe

Dynamic performance of an underground trackless rubber tyred vehicle driven by flameproof diesel engine

Vozilo bez gusjenica s gumenim kotačima (the trackless rubber tyred vehicle - TRTV) važan je dio opreme za prijevoz u podzemnim ugljenokopima na svijetu. Sada se većina TRTV-a pogoni vatrootpornim dizel motorima. Međutim, malo je istraživanja do sada koja su bila usmjerena na njihovu dinamičku učinkovitost. U ovom se radu najprije rezimiraju i razmatraju karakteristični parametri i faktori od utjecaja na dinamičku učinkovitost TRTV-a pogonjenih vatrootpornim dizel motorima. Zatim se postavljaju osnovne dinamičke jednadžbe TRTV-a. Na kraju se ADVISOR-om simuliraju dinamičke performanse TRTV-a tipa WCQ-3B. Razmatraju se simulacijom neki važni parametri dinamičke učinkovitosti kao što su maksimalna brzina, vrijeme ubrzanja i maksimalna sposobnosti vozila u savladavanju uspona (gradabilnost). Uz to se također analiziraju potrošnja goriva i ispuštanje plinova. Pokazano je da dinamičke performanse WCQ-3B tipa TRTV-a mogu zadovoljiti zahtjeve dizajna i uporabe u podzemnim ugljenokopima.The trackless rubber tyred vehicle (TRTV) is an important transporting equipment of underground coal mine auxiliary transportation system in the world. Presently, most TRTVs are driven by flameproof diesel engine. However, few researches were focused on their dynamic performance in the past. In this paper, the characterizing parameters and influencing factors of the dynamic performance of a flameproof diesel engine driven TRTV were summarized and discussed firstly. Then the basic dynamic equations of the TRTV were established. Finally, the dynamic performances of the WCQ-3B type TRTV were simulated by ADVISOR. And some important dynamic performance parameters such as maximum speed, acceleration time and maximum gradability were discussed by simulation. What is more, the fuel economy and emission performance of the vehicle were also analysed. It is shown that the dynamic performance of WCQ-3B type TRTV can satisfy the design and usage requirements of underground coal mine

Transmission of antibiotic resistance at the wildlife-livestock interface

Antibiotic-resistant microorganisms (ARMs) are widespread in natural environments, animals (wildlife and livestock), and humans, which has reduced our capacity to control life threatening infectious disease. Yet, little is known about their transmission pathways, especially at the wildlife-livestock interface. This study investigated the potential transmission of ARMs and antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) between cattle and wildlife by comparing gut microbiota and ARG profiles of feral swine (Sus scrofa), coyotes (Canis latrans), cattle (Bos taurus), and environmental microbiota. Unexpectedly, wild animals harbored more abundant ARMs and ARGs compared to grazing cattle. Gut microbiota of cattle was significantly more similar to that of feral swine captured within the cattle grazing area where the home range of both species overlapped substantially. In addition, ARMs against medically important antibiotics were more prevalent in wildlife than grazing cattle, suggesting that wildlife could be a source of ARMs colonization in livestock

Identification of Colletotrichum horii Isolated from Postharvest Fig Anthracnose and Its Control by Bacillus velezensis

Anthracnose, a common postharvest fungal disease of fruits, can cause severe economic losses. A pathogenic strain named FC.006 was isolated from postharvest anthracnose of ‘Browns Wick’ figs by the traditional fungal isolation method. FC.006 was identified as Colletotrichum horii by morphological observation, multigene sequence identification and phylogenetic tree analysis. In order to investigate a biological control method for FC.006, the control effect of the biocontrol agent Bacillus velezensis RD.006 on FC.006 in vitro and infected figs was evaluated. The results showed that the inhibition rate of FC.006 by RD.006 was 85% when co-cultured in vitro for 8 days. RD.006 had good disease control effect on figs infected with FC.006, and significantly increased the expression of the FcPAL, Fc4CL, FcC4H, FcCAT, FcAPX, and FcPOD genes at the early stage after inoculation (P < 0.05). To sum up, C. horii FC.006 can cause fig anthracnose, and Bacillus velezensis RD.006 can effectively control postharvest anthracnose in figs through direct antibiosis and induction of fruit disease resistance

The impact of long-term care insurance in China on beneficiaries and caregivers: A systematic review

Background China’s long-term care insurance (LTCI) policy has been minimally evaluated. This systematic review aimed to assess the impact of China’s LTCI pilot on beneficiaries and their caregivers. Methods This review is based on a search of peer-reviewed studies in English (Embase, MEDLINE, Web of Science) and Chinese (China National Knowledge Infrastructure [CNKI], VIP, Wanfang) databases from January 2016 through July 2020, with all studies published in English or Chinese included. We included quantitative analyses of beneficiary-level data that assessed the impact of LTCI on beneficiaries and their caregivers, with no restriction placed on the outcomes studied. Results Nine studies met our inclusion criteria. One study was a randomised trial and two used quasi-experimental approaches. Four studies examined LTCI’s effect on beneficiaries’ quality of life, physical pain, and health service utilisation; one study reported the effect on beneficiaries’ healthcare expenditures; and one study evaluated the impact on caregivers’ care tasks. These studies generally found LTCI to be associated with an improvement in patients’ quality of life (including decreased physical pain), a reduction in the number of outpatient visits and hospitalisations, decreased patient-level health expenditures (e.g. one study reported a reduction in the length of stay, inpatient expenditures, and health insurance expenditures in tertiary hospitals by 41.0%, 17.7%, and 11.4%, respectively), and reduced informal care tasks for caregivers. In addition, four out of four studies that evaluated this outcome found that beneficiaries’ overall satisfaction with LTCI was high. Conclusion The current evidence base for the effects of LTCI in China on beneficiaries and their caregivers is sparse. Nonetheless, the existing studies suggest that LTCI has positive effects on beneficiaries and their caregivers. Further rigorous research on the impacts of LTCI in China is needed to inform the future expansion of the program