894 research outputs found

    Higher-Order Simulations: Strategic Investment Under Model-Induced Price Patterns

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    The trading and investment decision processes in financial markets become ever more dependent on the use of valuation and risk models. In the case of risk management for instance, modelling practice has become quite homogeneous and the question arises as to the effect this has on the price formation process. Furthermore, sophisticated investors who have private information about the use and characteristics of these models might be able to make superior gains in such an environment. The aim of this article is to test this hypothesis in a stylised market, where a strategic investor trades on information about the valuation and risk management models used by other market participants. Simulation results show that under certain market conditions, such a \'higher-order\' strategy generates higher profits than standard fundamental and momentum strategies that do not draw on information about model use.Financial Markets, Multi-Agent Simulation, Performativity, Higher-Order Strategies

    Simulación realista de los mercados financieros con sistemas multi-agentes

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    Els mercats financers són un exemple paradigmàtic de sistemes complexos adaptatius. Els paradigmes tradicionals de modelització no permeten reflexar aquesta realitat i hem de recórrer a noves eines. Presentem la simulació basada en sistemes multi-agents com el paradigma idoni per a analitzar els mercats financers en tota la seva complexitat. És un mètode que permet estudiar el comportament global del mercat a partir de la seva microestructura, i ja ha suggerit explicacions per a algunes de les regularitats estadístiques observades en una gran varietat de mercats. Exposem, a més amés, els primers passos en la construcció d'una simulació realista del mercat de bons.Financial markets are a paradigmatic case of complex adaptive systems. However, their complexity cannot be captured by traditional modelisation paradigms and we thus need to turn to new modelling tools. We present agent-based simulation as the suitable paradigm to analyse financial markets: this method allows to study the market macro behaviour on the basis of its microstructure, and some advances have already been done in the analysis and explanation of the stylised facts observed in a range of markets. We moreover describe the first steps we have undertaken to build a realistic simulation of a bond market

    A game based approach to improve traders' decision-making

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    Purpose: The development of a game based approach to improving the decision-making capabilities of financial traders through attention to improving the regulation of emotions during trading. Design/methodology/approach: The project used a design-based research approach to integrate the contributions of a highly inter-disciplinary team. The approach was underpinned by considerable stakeholder engagement to understand the ‘ecology of practices’ in which this learning approach should be embedded. Findings: Taken together, our 35 laboratory, field and evaluation studies provide much support for the validity of our game based learning approach, the learning elements which make it up, and the value of designing game-based learning to fit within an ecology of existing practices. Originality/value: The novelty of the work described in the paper comes from the focus in this research project of combining knowledge and skills from multiple disciplines informed by a deep understanding of the context of application to achieve the successful development of a Learning Pathway, which addresses the transfer of learning to the practice environment Key words: Design-based research, emotion-regulation, disposition–effect, financial traders, serious games, sensor-based game

    Science Classroom Inquiry (SCI) simulations: A novel method to scaffold science learning

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    Science education is progressively more focused on employing inquiry-based learning methods in the classroom and increasing scientific literacy among students. However, due to time and resource constraints, many classroom science activities and laboratory experiments focus on simple inquiry, with a step-by-step approach to reach predetermined outcomes. The science classroom inquiry (SCI) simulations were designed to give students real life, authentic science experiences within the confines of a typical classroom. The SCI simulations allow students to engage with a science problem in a meaningful, inquiry-based manner. Three discrete SCI simulations were created as website applications for use with middle school and high school students. For each simulation, students were tasked with solving a scientific problem through investigation and hypothesis testing. After completion of the simulation, 67% of students reported a change in how they perceived authentic science practices, specifically related to the complex and dynamic nature of scientific research and how scientists approach problems. Moreover, 80% of the students who did not report a change in how they viewed the practice of science indicated that the simulation confirmed or strengthened their prior understanding. Additionally, we found a statistically significant positive correlation between students' self-reported changes in understanding of authentic science practices and the degree to which each simulation benefitted learning. Since SCI simulations were effective in promoting both student learning and student understanding of authentic science practices with both middle and high school students, we propose that SCI simulations are a valuable and versatile technology that can be used to educate and inspire a wide range of science students on the real-world complexities inherent in scientific study

    Cross-species comparison of CAR-mediated procarcinogenic key events in a 3D liver microtissue model

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    Characterisation of the mode of action (MOA) of constitutive androstane receptor (CAR)-mediated rodent liver tumours involves measurement 5 key events including activation of the CAR receptor, altered gene expression, hepatocellular proliferation, clonal expansion and increased hepatocellular adenomas/carcinomas. To test whether or not liver 3D microtissues (LiMTs) recapitulate CAR- mediated procarcinogenic key events in response to the prototypical CAR activator phenobarbital (PB) we performed hepatocyte proliferation (LI%) analysis in rat and human LiMTs using a microTMA technology in conjunction with integrated transcriptomics (microarray) and proteomics analysis. The rationale for this approach was that LiMTs containing parenchymal and non-parenchymal cells (NPCs) are more physiologically representative of liver and thus would generate data more relevant to the in vivo situation. Rat and human LiMTs were treated with PB over a range of concentrations (500 uM - 2000 uM) and times (24 h - 96 h) in a dose-response/time-course analysis. There was a dose-dependent induction of LI% in rat LiMTs, however there was little or no effect of PB on LI% in human LiMTs. ATP levels in the rat and human LiMTs were similar to control in all of the PB treatments. There was also a dose- and time-dependent PB-mediated RNA induction of CAR regulated genes CYP2B6/Cyp2b2, CYP3A7/Cyp3a9 and UGT1A6/Ugt1a6 in human and rat LiMTs, respectively. These CAR regulated genes were also upregulated at the protein level. Ingenuity pathways analysis (IPA) indicated that there was a significant (Z score &gt;2.0;-log p value &gt;) activation of CAR by PB in both human and rat LiMTs. These results indicate that human and rat LiMTs showed the expected responses at the level of PB-induced hepatocyte proliferation and enzyme induction with rat LiMTs showing significant dose-dependent effects while human LiMTs showed no proliferation response but did show dose-dependent enzyme induction at the RNA and protein levels. In conclusion LiMTs serve as a model to provide mechanistic data for 3 of the 5 key events considered necessary to establish a CAR-mediated MOA for liver tumourigenesis and thus can potentially reduce the use of animals when compiling mechanistic data packages.</p
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