A forced disrupt: "the next normal" for airlines and cruises

The aim of this master’s thesis is to investigate how COVID-19 has impacted travel and tourism and how the industries can transform themselves in order to become competitive in ”the next normal”. To do so, we have done a deep-dive on two industries –namely the airline and cruise industry –and by gathering, analysing and interpreting secondary and primary data we have sought to outline how the industries were performing prior to the pandemic, to which extent they have been impacted during the pandemic, and what we can expect the next normal to look like. Thus, the main question that we have set out to investigate in this thesis is: “How is COVID-19 currently changing the airline and cruise industries, and how can industry players reimagine themselves in order to become competitive in “the next normal”?” The present chapter attempts methodically to outline what business travellers –the most impacted airline customer segment –can expect in the next normal. This is done, first, by contextualising the segment, i.e. providing a picture of how the segment was performing prior to COVID-19 and which role it played to airlines. Secondly by using secondary and primary data to explain how COVID-19 has impacted the segment’s flight consumption. Finally, by looking at ongoingtrends and by understanding the needs and wants of business travellers, it looks at how the future is currently forming and will continue to shape. Secondary data shows that, while just accounting for 10% of global airline passengers, business travellers drive up to 75% of airline profits and 50% of airline revenues, and thus airlines are inarguably dependent on this segment to run successfully. The entire infrastructure of business-oriented airlines is built up around serving this segment and their leisure passengers thus function as loss leaders. During COVID-19, the business segment has been impacted more than its leisure counterpart as (1) business everywhere has been moved from the office to peoples’ homes, and (2) because companies do not want to risk the health of their employees. Primary data shows that the future will be increasingly remote, however all indicators point to only the most non-essential business travel to be replaced by video conferencing in the future as there is a broad consensus that trainings, negotiations and conferences are significantly more effective and engaging in-person. Given the novelty and unpredictability of COVID-19, researching this topic has been exceptionally difficult as industry data and forecasts as well as consumer sentiment changes on a daily basis. Thus, this research deck should be interpreted as a screenshot of the situation and how we recommend airlines and cruises to deal with it as of January 2021 while the pandemic is still developing rapidly, rather than a fixed conclusion for solving the managerial problems that have emanated

Fiscal Sustainability and Generational Burden Sharing in Denmark

Based on generational accounts and a simple welfare calculus, this paper studies two alternative scenarios of sustainable fiscal policy in Denmark. A strategy of tax smoothing is found to provide a fairly even intergenerational distribution of the financial burden associated with population ageing. While tax smoothing causes a relatively sharp increase in public debt along the transition path, a strategy of debt smoothing is shown to pass a larger part of the financial burden onto current generations but without changing the intergenerational distribution profile in any dramatic way. A comparison based on a social welfare function indicates a marginal superiority of tax smoothing.

The hourglass pattern of women’s representation

Women’s descriptive underrepresentation in parliaments is traditionally presented as the result of a process that discards women as they move up the ladder of recruitment. In this article, the case of Denmark is used to demonstrate an alternative hourglass pattern where women’s presence does decrease in the early phases but increase in the later phases. There are fewer women among party members than among party voters, and fewer women among potential candidates than among party members. However, there is a higher share of women among nominated candidates than among potential candidates, and women are more likely than men to get elected. This hourglass pattern is found at the aggregate level as well as across political party and over time. There are two implications of this finding: (1) the traditional pyramidal pattern cannot be taken for granted, and (2) in countries where women’s representation follows an hourglass shape, scholars and advocates alike should focus on membership recruitment by political parties and on internal party processes that aim to develop party members’ willingness to run for political office prior to the formal nomination process.</p

Assessment of fitness for recreational scuba diving in candidates with asthma:a pilot study

BackgroundAsthma may be regarded as a contraindication to scuba diving.PurposeA clinical algorithm to assess fitness to dive among individuals with asthma was developed and tested prospectively in clinical practice.Study designCohort study.MethodsAll patients with possible asthma referred to Hvidovre Hospital, Denmark, for assessment of fitness to dive over a 5-year period (2013–2017) were included. Fitness to dive was assessed by case history, spirometry and mannitol challenge test. All patients with ≥10% decline in forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) (at any point during the challenge test) were offered step-up asthma therapy and rechallenge after at least 3 months. Patients with &lt;10% decline in FEV1 after administration of a maximum dose of mannitol at the latest challenge were classified as having no medical contraindications to scuba diving.ResultsThe study cohort comprised 41 patients (24 men; mean age 33 years), of whom 71% and 63% of men and women, respectively, were treated with rescue bronchodilator and inhaled corticosteroid. After the first mannitol challenge test, 21 patients were classified as having no medical contraindications to scuba diving, of whom 16 were currently prescribed asthma medication. After step-up asthma therapy and rechallenge test, an additional seven patients were classified as having no medical contraindications to scuba diving. Overall, using this clinical algorithm, 28 (68%) of the referred patients were finally assessed as having no medical contraindications to scuba diving.ConclusionUsing a clinical algorithm with mannitol challenge to assess fitness to dive among patients with possible asthma and allowing a rechallenge test after step-up asthma therapy increased the proportion of individuals classified as having no medical contraindications to scuba diving. However, as this algorithm has so far not been evaluated against actual scuba diving safety, further studies are clearly needed before it can be implemented with confidence for use in clinical practice.Clinical relevanceAn algorithm to assess fitness for scuba diving among individuals with possible asthma using bronchial challenge test, with the option of step-up asthma therapy and rechallenge for reassessment, has been developed for clinical use