Bankruptcy probability : a theoretical and empirical examination

University of Technology, Sydney. Faculty of Business.Early Bankruptcy classification models were developed to demonstrate the usefulness of information contained in financial statements. The majority of classification models developed have used a pool of financial ratios combined with statistical variable selection techniques to maximise the accuracy of the classifier being employed. Rather than follow an "ad hoc" variable selection process, this thesis seeks to provide an economic basis for the selection of variables for inclusion in bankruptcy models, which are based on accounting information. An implicit assumption underlying this work is that the probability of default is endogenous. That is, the decisions of a firm's management have a direct impact on the probability of bankruptcy. These decisions and their resultant effects can be identified through analysis of financial statements. A model of a firm facing an uncertain environment with the possibility of bankruptcy is developed and analysed. In the model, a firm is created with given initial equity. These funds can be invested in productive resources or held as cash balances. The productive resources are used to earn random earnings in any period. If earnings are positive, they can be used to pay dividends to shareholders, invest in new productive resources, repay outstanding debt or increase the firm's cash balance. The firm is able to borrow and repay funds up to a credit limit. When the cash position of the firm falls to zero the firm is bankrupt. The firm attempts to maximise the stream of dividends paid to shareholders during its life. The solutions of the model and the associated bankruptcy probability expressions are derived by application of the dynamic programming algorithm. The variables which differentiate the possible model solutions and those identified in the derived bankruptcy probability expressions, are 'proxied' by variables constructed from financial statement data. This data is derived from Annual Reports filed with the Australian Stock Exchange between 1966 and 1994. These proxy variables are used in the empirical validation of bankruptcy probability expressions derived from the model. The random nature of the time horizon in the model for a single firm provides the rationale for the use of duration or hazard-based statistical methods in the validation of the derived bankruptcy probability expressions. The Cox (1972) proportional hazards model is used to estimate the coefficients and standard errors that are required for the validation of the derived bankruptcy probability expressions. Results of the validation exercise confirm that the variables included in the empirical hazard formulation behave in a way that is consistent with the solutions of the model of the firm. Thus, the bankruptcy probability expressions derived from the model of the firm developed in this thesis provide a guide for the conduct of empirical investigations of the probability of corporate failure

Unlocking the Word Hoard: The Potential of Literacy Learning in the Social Reintegration of Ex Offenders, Disabled People and those Discharged from the Armed Forces.

The allusion in the title of this thesis to the Anglo Saxon epic poem ‘Beowulf’ speaks to the power of personal narration. Drawing on the Biographical Narrative Interpretive Methodology has enabled participants to make their voices heard, in contrast to alternative forms of rhetoric, which might lead to dysfunctional behaviour. It has been my privilege as a researcher to translate their oral narratives into a written account of their versions of their lives. These narratives have the potential to link self understanding with social structures, including access to training and employment, and to lead to reintegration as fuller members of society. The assumptions underlying my research are that those included in my study – ex offenders, people with disabilities and those discharged from the Armed Forces - can be isolated and excluded from full membership of society by social and political forces which are beyond their control; and that they have linked vulnerabilities to crises including unemployment, homelessness and suicide. However, they have individual agency to overcome the effects of social exclusion; and literacy and other forms of learning have a potentially transformational role in their social reintegration. Those who have offended are especially at risk of experiencing the most oppressive aspects of social exclusion, including lack of access to literacy learning and vocational training. Their efforts to be reintegrated by these means do not follow a linear progression and can be subject to delay, interruption and disappointment, which can reinforce their social exclusion. I have explored the double edged nature of literacy. Language and imagery can be tools of individual agency for my participants’ personal development and social integration but moral assumptions and narratives are employed as rhetorical tools for marginalisation and the privileging of particular ideological preferences, which can be experienced as further subtle means of exclusion. However, participants’ narratives have challenged and broadened my original assumptions on the nature and impact of exclusion on those included in my study; the transition experiences which can be formative for individuals, including the points between development of a disability, release from prison or discharge from the Armed Forces, and access to learning; the nature of learning, which can play a part in restoring and resolving identity; and the ways in which reflexivity and instrumentality can be developed in support of individual agency. Listening to participants’ narratives, characterised by use of metaphor as an alternative form of language and self-expression, has highlighted the ways in which participants in my research have defied the application to themselves of a binary approach to the concepts of social exclusion and social inclusion. In their engagement in Foucault’s (1980: 102) ‘contested interactions’ with power structures, they have echoed the values and tenets of critical literacy theory and critical pedagogy in a wider context of learning than I had envisaged. This has led to reintegration as fuller members of society, on their own terms, for themselves and for fellow people with disabilities, ex offenders and ex Armed Forces colleagues

Adding value and meaning to coheating tests

Purpose: The coheating test is the standard method of measuring the heat loss coefficient of a building, but to be useful the test requires careful and thoughtful execution. Testing should take place in the context of additional investigations in order to achieve a good understanding of the building and a qualitative and (if possible) quantitative understanding of the reasons for any performance shortfall. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach: Leeds Metropolitan University has more than 20 years of experience in coheating testing. This experience is drawn upon to discuss practical factors which can affect the outcome, together with supporting tests and investigations which are often necessary in order to fully understand the results. Findings: If testing is approached using coheating as part of a suite of investigations, a much deeper understanding of the test building results. In some cases it is possible to identify and quantify the contributions of different factors which result in an overall performance shortfall. Practical implications: Although it is not practicable to use a fully investigative approach for large scale routine quality assurance, it is extremely useful for purposes such as validating other testing procedures, in-depth study of prototypes or detailed investigations where problems are known to exist. Social implications: Successful building performance testing is a vital tool to achieve energy saving targets. Originality/value: The approach discussed clarifies some of the technical pitfalls which may be encountered in the execution of coheating tests and points to ways in which the maximum value can be extracted from the test period, leading to a meaningful analysis of the building's overall thermal performance

Liquidity Costs, Idiosyncratic Volatility and Expected Stock Returns

This paper considers liquidity as an explanation for the positive association between expected idiosyncratic volatility (IV) and expected stock returns. Liquidity costs may affect the stock returns, through bid-ask bounce and other microstructure-induced noise, which will affect the estimation of IV. We use a novel method (developed by Weaver, 1991) to eliminate microstructure influences from stock closing price-based returns and then estimate IV. We show that there is a premium for IV in value-weighted portfolios, but this premium is less strong after correcting returns for microstructure bias. We further show that this premium is driven by liquidity in the prior month after correcting returns for microstructure noise. The pricing results from equally-weighted portfolios indicate that IV does not predict returns either before or after controlling for liquidity costs. These findings are robust after controlling for common risk factors as well as analysing double-sorted portfolios based on IV and liquidity

Approaches to study and conceptions of biology: Differential outcomes for generalist and vocational degree students

KEYWORDS: learning in biology, vocational learning, generalist science degree, Learner Profiling BACKGROUND: Students have diverse learning styles and a raft of instruments have been created and validated to examine learner characteristics such as approaches to study (Biggs, 1987; Biggs, Kember & Leung, 2001) and conception of discipline in various science-based courses, including maths (Crawford, Gordon, Nicholas & Prosser, 1998), physics (Prosser, Trigwell, Hazel & Waterhouse, 2000) and biology (Quinnell, May, Peat & Taylor, 2005). Student survey response data can be analysed statistically in a number of ways: for example, students returning similar responses (i.e. students who adopt similar orchestrations) can be characterised using hierarchical cluster analysis (see Trigwell, Hazel & Prosser, 1996; Trigwell Prosser & Waterhouse, 1999; Prosser et al., 2000). Such analysis has allowed us to monitor changes in these learning orchestrations over the course of a semester by extending the work of Prosser et al. (2000) and employing sequential hierarchical cluster analyses in a process we refer to as ‘Learner Profiling’ (Quinnell, May & Peat, 2012). We have demonstrated that 48% of students in an introductory university biology course changed their learning orchestrations from the start to the end of their first semester at university, with some orchestrations being more persistent than others (Quinnell et al., 2012). Biology, like other enabling science courses at first year level, involves service teaching to some extent, and we were interested to see whether students enrolled in vocational or professional degrees engaged with our curriculum differently from students enrolled in generalist degrees. With this in mind we are beginning to explore the notion of differences in learning agendas of our students and if this has an impact on how students engage with our biology curriculum. AIM: Our aim was to evaluate our learner profiling method as a means to inform curriculum design which must, by necessity, be suitable for students across a broad range of degree programs, i.e. generalist and vocational degrees. DESIGN AND METHODS: We profiled biology students as described previously (Quinnell et al., 2012) and employed post-hoc analyses to see how elements of the curriculum (good teaching, clear goals, independence, assessment, workload; as defined by Ramsden, 1991) correlate with the changes in Learner Profile. We also identified students are ‘generalist’ or ‘vocational’ based on their degree program. RESULTS: Interestingly, although perhaps not surprisingly, students enrolled in generalist degrees demonstrated greater engagement with our biology curriculum than those enrolled in vocational degrees. Our data provide some evidence that our curriculum: 1. supports generalist degree students whose conception of biology is sound and whose study approach is intrinsic, 2. is less than ideal for meeting the needs of students in vocational degrees, and 3. has failed to engage students who demonstrated dissonance at the start of semester. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that a course in biology literacy would be more suitable to students in vocational degrees and a course that is biology content-rich would suit our generalist-degree students. REFERENCES: Biggs, J. (1987). Student approaches to learning and studying. Melbourne, Australian Council for Educational Research. Biggs, J., Kember D., & Leung D. Y. P. (2001). The revised two-factor Study Process Questionnaire: R-SPQ-2F. British Journal of Educational Psychology 71: 133-149. Crawford, K., Gordon, S., Nicholas, J., & Prosser, M. (1988). Qualitatively different experiences of learning mathematics at university. Learning and Instruction, 8, 455–468. Prosser, M., Trigwell, K., Hazel, E., & Waterhouse, F. (2000). Students’ experiences of studying physics concepts: the effects of disintegrated perceptions and approaches, European Journal of Psychology of Education, 15, 61-74. Quinnell, R., May, E., & Peat, M. (2012). Conceptions of Biology and Approaches to Learning of First Year Biology Students: Introducing a technique for tracking changes in learner profiles over time. International Journal of Science Education, 34(7), 1053-1074. Quinnell, R., May, E., Peat, M., & Taylor, C. (2005). Creating a reliable instrument to assess students’ conceptions of studying biology at tertiary level. Proceedings of the Uniserve Science Conference: Blended Learning in Science Teaching and Learning, 30 September 2005 (pp. 87-92) Sydney: Uniserve Science, The University of Sydney. http://science.uniserve.edu.au/pubs/procs/wshop10/2005Quinnell.pdf Ramsden, P. (1991). A performance indicator of teaching quality in Higher Education: The Course Experience Questionnaire. Studies in Higher Education, 16(2), 129-150. Trigwell, K., Hazel, E., & Prosser, M. (1996). Perceptions of the learning environment and approaches to learning university science at the topic level. Different Approaches: Theory and Practice in Higher Education. Proceedings HERDSA Conference 1996. Perth, Western Australia, 8-12 July. (Retrieved 24 March 2011 from http://www.herdsa.org.au/confs/1996/trigwell2.html) Trigwell, K., Prosser, M., & Waterhouse F. (1999). Relations between teachers' approaches to teaching and students' approaches to learning. Higher Education, 37(1), 57-70

Applying quantitative bias analysis to estimate the plausible effects of selection bias in a cluster randomised controlled trial: secondary analysis of the Primary care Osteoarthritis Screening Trial (POST).

BACKGROUND: Selection bias is a concern when designing cluster randomised controlled trials (c-RCT). Despite addressing potential issues at the design stage, bias cannot always be eradicated from a trial design. The application of bias analysis presents an important step forward in evaluating whether trial findings are credible. The aim of this paper is to give an example of the technique to quantify potential selection bias in c-RCTs. METHODS: This analysis uses data from the Primary care Osteoarthritis Screening Trial (POST). The primary aim of this trial was to test whether screening for anxiety and depression, and providing appropriate care for patients consulting their GP with osteoarthritis would improve clinical outcomes. Quantitative bias analysis is a seldom-used technique that can quantify types of bias present in studies. Due to lack of information on the selection probability, probabilistic bias analysis with a range of triangular distributions was also used, applied at all three follow-up time points; 3, 6, and 12 months post consultation. A simple bias analysis was also applied to the study. RESULTS: Worse pain outcomes were observed among intervention participants than control participants (crude odds ratio at 3, 6, and 12 months: 1.30 (95% CI 1.01, 1.67), 1.39 (1.07, 1.80), and 1.17 (95% CI 0.90, 1.53), respectively). Probabilistic bias analysis suggested that the observed effect became statistically non-significant if the selection probability ratio was between 1.2 and 1.4. Selection probability ratios of > 1.8 were needed to mask a statistically significant benefit of the intervention. CONCLUSIONS: The use of probabilistic bias analysis in this c-RCT suggested that worse outcomes observed in the intervention arm could plausibly be attributed to selection bias. A very large degree of selection of bias was needed to mask a beneficial effect of intervention making this interpretation less plausible

Transmission loss predictions for dissipative silencers of arbitrary cross section in the presence of mean flow

A numerical technique is developed for the analysis of dissipative silencers of arbitrary, but axially uniform, cross section. Mean gas flow is included in a central airway which is separated from a bulk reacting porous material by a concentric perforate screen. The analysis begins by employing the finite element method to extract the eigenvalues and associated eigenvectors for a silencer of infinite length. Point collocation is then used to match the expanded acoustic pressure and velocity fields in the silencer chamber to those in the inlet and outlet pipes. Transmission loss predictions are compared with experimental measurements taken for two automotive dissipative silencers with elliptical cross sections. Good agreement between prediction and experiment is observed both without mean flow and for a mean flow Mach number of 0.15. It is demonstrated also that the technique presented offers a considerable reduction in computational expenditure when compared to a three dimensional finite element analysis

Profiling our students' learning orchestrations to evaluate the biology curriculum

© 2018, Institute for Innovation in Science and Mathematics Education. We have identified the major shifts in individual student study orchestrations over the first semester of a university biology course. We offer evidence that our curriculum, designed and taught by generalist biologists, has engaged generalist degree students. Professional degree students have not engaged with this course to the same level and many were demonstrably dissonant. At the end of semester, dissonant students, from both generalist and professional degrees, demonstrated little engagement with the curriculum, which is consistent with previous reports of the high degree of disengagement of first year students. The challenge to improve the engagement of students in professional degrees and to address the tendency towards dissonance and disengagement by our first year students is discussed and improvements in engagement are likely to be aided by systems that allow students to assess for themselves their approaches to study and conceptions of discipline development over the course of their degree

Are you a researcher as well as a medical illustrator?

When we list the areas of practice for medical illustrators we always include research, but how involved in research are we? The aim of this activity is to encourage your professional development not just as a medical illustrator but your involvement with research whether that is undertaking your own research, undertaking evidence based practice (1) , working as part of a research team, advising researchers on the value of medical illustration or supporting a student undertaking a research project for their degree or post-graduate qualification

Party Wall Cavity Barrier Effective Edge Seal Testing for ARC Building Solutions Ltd

ARC Building Solutions Ltd manufacture, market and distribute a range of party wall cavity barriers. Part L of the Building Regulations (HM Government, 2013) stipulates that when cavity barriers are used for edge sealing purposes, then the seal must be effective at restricting air flow between the party wall cavity and the external wall cavity or external environment (Figure 1). The Building Control Alliance (2011) describes how an edge seal is to be judged as being effective in a qualitative manner. However, there is currently no standard test for quantitatively demonstrating the effectiveness of edge sealing using a cavity barrier product. ARC Building Solutions Ltd wished to quantify the effectiveness of the edge seal that could be achieved using the Company’s products under test conditions. This information could prove useful when engaging designers, building control bodies and warranty providers. As there is currently no quantitative benchmark for what is deemed to be an effective edge seal this project aimed to compare the performance of a recognised ‘current practice’ solution against ARC Building Solutions Ltd.’s T-Barrier, and as far as possible compare these to an accepted effective edge seal for a number of different party wall and external wall cavity widths. In addition to this comparative testing, this project may also assist in the development and application of a standardised ‘Edge Seal Test’ for which there is understood to be no current standard or specific precedent. Whilst the test rig may not be fully representative of the actual construction of a party wall/external wall junction in situ, it is hoped that the results may provide insight as to how the performance of these products may compare in real building situations