A Note on likelihood estimation of missing values in time series.

Missing values in time series can be treated as unknown parameters and estimated by maximum likelihood, or as random variables and predicted by the expectation of the unknown values given the data. The difference between these two procedures is illustrated by an example. It is argued that the second procedure is, in general, more relevant for estimating missing values in time series.ARIMA models; Interpolation; Mean Square Error;

Bayesian outliers functions for linear models.

This paper introduces two new diagnostic tools: the Bayesian outlier curve (BOC) and the Sequential Bayesian outlier curve (SEBOC). Both are built using the posterior odds for every possible number of outliers in a scale contaminated linear model. It is shown that these functions have a cross-validation interpretation, and can be useful to judge the robustness of the fitted model. The computation of these curves is carried out using ideas from stratified sampling.Cross-validations; Diagnosis; Mixture models; Model selection;

The Non-Mesonic Weak Decay of Double-Lambda Hypernuclei: A Microscopic Approach

The non--mesonic weak decay of double--$\Lambda$ hypernuclei is studied within a microscopic diagrammatic approach. Besides the nucleon--induced mechanism, $\Lambda N\to nN$, widely studied in single--$\Lambda$ hypernuclei, additional hyperon--induced mechanisms, $\Lambda \Lambda\to \Lambda n$, $\Lambda \Lambda\to \Sigma^0 n$ and $\Lambda \Lambda\to \Sigma^-p$, are accessible in double--$\Lambda$ hypernuclei and are investigated here. As in previous works on single--$\Lambda$ hypernuclei, we adopt a nuclear matter formalism extended to finite nuclei via the local density approximation and a one--meson exchange weak transition potential (including the ground state pseudoscalar and vector octets mesons) supplemented by correlated and uncorrelated two--pion--exchange contributions. The weak decay rates are evaluated for hypernuclei in the region of the experimentally accessible light hypernuclei $^{10}_{\Lambda\Lambda}$Be and $^{13}_{\Lambda\Lambda}$B. Our predictions are compared with a few previous evaluations. The rate for the $\Lambda \Lambda\to \Lambda n$ decay is dominated by $K$--, $K^*$-- and $\eta$--exchange and turns out to be about 2.5\% of the free $\Lambda$ decay rate, $\Gamma_{\Lambda}^{\rm free}$, while the total rate for the $\Lambda \Lambda\to \Sigma^0 n$ and $\Lambda \Lambda\to \Sigma^- p$ decays, dominated by $\pi$--exchange, amounts to about 0.25\% of $\Gamma_{\Lambda}^{\rm free}$. The experimental measurement of these decays would be essential for the beginning of a systematic study of the non--mesonic decay of strangeness $-2$ hypernuclei. This field of research could also shed light on the possible existence and nature of the $H$--dibaryon.Comment: 17 pages, 2 figure

Global three-neutrino oscillation analysis of neutrino data

A global analysis of the solar, atmospheric and reactor neutrino data is presented in terms of three-neutrino oscillations. We include the most recent solar neutrino rates of Homestake, SAGE, GALLEX and GNO, as well as the recent 1117 day Super-Kamiokande data sample, including the recoil electron energy spectrum both for day and night periods and we treat in a unified way the full parameter space for oscillations, correctly accounting for the transition from the matter enhanced (MSW) to the vacuum oscillations regime. Likewise, we include in our description conversions with $\theta_{12} > \pi/4$. For the atmospheric data we perform our analysis of the contained events and the upward-going $\nu$-induced muon fluxes, including the previous data samples of Frejus, IMB, Nusex, and Kamioka experiments as well as the full 71 kton-yr (1144 days) Super-Kamiokande data set, the recent 5.1 kton-yr contained events of Soudan2 and the results on upgoing muons from the MACRO detector. We first present the allowed regions of solar and atmospheric oscillation parameters $\theta_{12}$, $\Delta m^2_{21}$ and $\theta_{23}$, $\Delta m^2_{32}$, respectively, as a function of $\theta_{13}$ and determine the constraints from atmospheric and solar data on the mixing angle $\theta_{13}$, common to solar and atmospheric analyses. We also obtain the allowed ranges of parameters from the full five-dimensional combined analysis of the solar, atmospheric and reactor data.Comment: 56 pages, 21 postscript figures. Some misprints corrected and new references added. Chooz limit included in Fig.21. Final version to appear in Phys. Rev.

Nucleon and gamma N -> Delta lattice form factors in a constituent quark model

A covariant quark model, based both on the spectator formalism and on vector meson dominance, and previously calibrated by the physical data, is here extended to the unphysical region of the lattice data by means of one single extra adjustable parameter - the constituent quark mass in the chiral limit. We calculated the Nucleon (N) and the gamma N -> Delta form factors in the universe of values for that parameter described by quenched lattice QCD. A qualitative description of the Nucleon and gamma N -> Delta form factors lattice data is achieved for light pions.Comment: To appear in J.Phys.

Seasonal Dependence in the Solar Neutrino Flux

MSW solutions of the solar neutrino problem predict a seasonal dependence of the zenith angle distribution of the event rates, due to the non-zero latitude at the Super-Kamiokande site. We calculate this seasonal dependence and compare it with the expectations in the no-oscillation case as well as just-so scenario, in the light of the latest Super-Kamiokande 708-day data. The seasonal dependence can be sizeable in the large mixing angle MSW solution and would be correlated with the day-night effect. This may be used to discriminate between MSW and just-so scenarios and should be taken into account in refined fits of the data.Comment: 4 pages, latex, RevTeX, two postscript figure

Description of nuclear systems with a self-consistent configuration-mixing approach. I: Theory, algorithm, and application to the 12^{12}C test nucleus

Although self-consistent multi-configuration methods have been used for decades to address the description of atomic and molecular many-body systems, only a few trials have been made in the context of nuclear structure. This work aims at the development of such an approach to describe in a unified way various types of correlations in nuclei, in a self-consistent manner where the mean-field is improved as correlations are introduced. The goal is to reconcile the usually set apart Shell-Model and Self-Consistent Mean-Field methods. This approach is referred as "variational multiparticle-multihole configuration mixing method". It is based on a double variational principle which yields a set of two coupled equations that determine at the same time the expansion coefficients of the many-body wave function and the single particle states. The formalism is derived and discussed in a general context, starting from a three-body Hamiltonian. Links to existing many-body techniques such as the formalism of Green's functions are established. First applications are done using the two-body D1S Gogny effective force. The numerical procedure is tested on the $^{12}$C nucleus in order to study the convergence features of the algorithm in different contexts. Ground state properties as well as single-particle quantities are analyzed, and the description of the first $2^+$ state is examined. This study allows to validate our numerical algorithm and leads to encouraging results. In order to test the method further, we will realize in the second article of this series, a systematic description of more nuclei and observables obtained by applying the newly-developed numerical procedure with the same Gogny force. As raised in the present work, applications of the variational multiparticle-multihole configuration mixing method will however ultimately require the use of an extended and more constrained Gogny force.Comment: 22 pages, 18 figures, accepted for publication in Phys. Rev. C. v2: minor corrections and references adde