Low-frequency climate variability in the Atlantic basin during the 20th century

From joint sea surface temperature/sea level pressure (SST/SLP) EOF analyses, lowfrequency variability modes are compared. The multi-decadal oscillation (MDO) changed phases twice during the 20th century, with its north Atlantic SST patterns resembling the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO). The quasi-decadal oscillation (QDO) SST patterns displayed a double tripole configuration over the entire Atlantic basin, leading to tropical inter-hemispheric out-of-phase relationship. From the mid-1960s onward, while ST anomalies were negative to the north (negative phases of MDO/AMO), the Sahelian drought persisted with a weaker hurricane power dissipation index (PDI). During that period, the QDO modulated the intensity of the Sahelian drought

Climate change projections of West Nile virus infections in Europe: implications for blood safety practices

Background: West Nile virus (WNV) is transmitted by mosquitoes in both urban as well as in rural environments and can be pathogenic in birds, horses and humans. Extrinsic factors such as temperature and land use are determinants of WNV outbreaks in Europe, along with intrinsic factors of the vector and virus. Methods: With a multivariate model for WNV transmission we computed the probability of WNV infection in 2014, with July 2014 temperature anomalies. We applied the July temperature anomalies under the balanced A1B climate change scenario (mix of all energy sources, fossil and non-fossil) for 2025 and 2050 to model and project the risk of WNV infection in the future. Since asymptomatic infections are common in humans (which can result in the contamination of the donated blood) we estimated the predictive prevalence of WNV infections in the blood donor population. Results: External validation of the probability model with 2014 cases indicated good prediction, based on an Area Under Curve (AUC) of 0.871 (SD = 0.032), on the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC). The climate change projections for 2025 reveal a higher probability of WNV infection particularly at the edges of the current transmission areas (for example in Eastern Croatia, Northeastern and Northwestern Turkey) and an even further expansion in 2050. The prevalence of infection in (blood donor) populations in the outbreak-affected districts is expected to expand in the future. Conclusions Predictive modelling of environmental and climatic drivers of WNV can be a valuable tool for public health practice. It can help delineate districts at risk for future transmission. These areas can be subjected to integrated disease and vector surveillance, outreach to the public and health care providers, implementation of personal protective measures, screening of blood donors, and vector abatement activities. (Résumé d'auteur

Climate change and human health in the Eastern Mediterranean and middle east: Literature review, research priorities and policy suggestions

Human health is linked to climatic factors in complex ways, and climate change can have profound direct and indirect impacts on the health status of any given region. Susceptibility to climate change is modulated by biological, ecological and socio-political factors such as age, gender, geographic location, socio-economic status, occupation, health status and housing conditions, among other. In the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME), climatic factors known to affect human health include extreme heat, water shortages and air pollution. Furthermore, the epidemiology of vector-borne diseases (VBDs) and the health consequences of population displacement are also influenced by climate change in this region. To inform future policies for adaptation and mitigation measures, and based on an extensive review of the available knowledge, we recommend several research priorities for the region. These include the generation of more empirical evidence on exposure-response functions involving climate change and specific health outcomes, the development of appropriate methodologies to evaluate the physical and psychological effects of climate change on vulnerable populations, determining how climate change alters the ecological determinants of human health, improving our understanding of the effects of long-term exposure to heat stress and air pollution, and evaluating the interactions between adaptation and mitigation strategies. Because national boundaries do not limit most climate-related factors expected to impact human health, we propose that adaptation/mitigation policies must have a regional scope, and therefore require collaborative efforts among EMME nations. Policy suggestions include a decisive region-wide decarbonisation, the integration of environmentally driven morbidity and mortality data throughout the region, advancing the development and widespread use of affordable technologies for the production and management of drinking water by non-traditional means, the development of comprehensive strategies to improve the health status of displaced populations, and fostering regional networks for monitoring and controlling the spread of infectious diseases and disease vectors.This project received funding from the Cyprus Institute's Core funds and from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 856612 and the Cyprus Government. All authors are members of the Task Force on Health of the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East Climate Change Initiative (EMME-CCI).Peer reviewe

Impacts of 1.5°C Global Warming on Natural and Human Systems

An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate povert