Risk measures for direct real estate investments with non-normal or unknown return distributions

The volatility of returns is probably the most widely used risk measure for real estate. This is rather surprising since a number of studies have cast doubts on the view that volatility can capture the manifold risks attached to properties and corresponds to the risk attitude of investors. A central issue in this discussion is the statistical properties of real estate returns—in contrast to neoclassical capital market theory they are mostly non-normal and often unknown, which render many statistical measures useless. Based on a literature review and an analysis of data from Germany we provide evidence that volatility alone is inappropriate for measuring the risk of direct real estate. We use a unique data sample by IPD, which includes the total returns of 939 properties across different usage types (56% office, 20% retail, 8% others and 16% residential properties) from 1996 to 2009, the German IPD Index, and the German Property Index. The analysis of the distributional characteristics shows that German real estate returns in this period were not normally distributed and that a logistic distribution would have been a better fit. This is in line with most of the current literature on this subject and leads to the question which indicators are more appropriate to measure real estate risks. We suggest that a combination of quantitative and qualitative risk measures more adequately captures real estate risks and conforms better with investor attitudes to risk. Furthermore, we present criteria for the purpose of risk classification

Versatility and Stereotypy of Free-Tailed Bat Songs

In mammals, complex songs are uncommon and few studies have examined song composition or the order of elements in songs, particularly with respect to regional and individual variation. In this study we examine how syllables and phrases are ordered and combined, ie “syntax”, of the song of Tadarida brasiliensis, the Brazilian free-tailed bat. Specifically, we test whether phrase and song composition differ among individuals and between two regions, we determine variability across renditions within individuals, and test whether phrases are randomly ordered and combined. We report three major findings. First, song phrases were highly stereotyped across two regions, so much so that some songs from the two colonies were almost indistinguishable. All males produced songs with the same four types of syllables and the same three types of phrases. Second, we found that although song construction was similar across regions, the number of syllables within phrases, and the number and order of phrases in songs varied greatly within and among individuals. Last, we determined that phrase order, although diverse, deviated from random models. We found broad scale phrase-order rules and certain higher order combinations that were highly preferred. We conclude that free-tailed bat songs are composed of highly stereotyped phrases hierarchically organized by a common set of syntactical rules. However, within global species-specific patterns, songs male free-tailed bats dynamically vary syllable number, phrase order, and phrase repetitions across song renditions

The aetiology of rickets-like lower limb deformities in Malawian children

Summary: Debilitating rickets-like lower limb deformities are common in children throughout the world, particularly in Malawi, Africa where the causes are unknown. We have identified that Blount disease and calcium deficiency rickets are the likely causes of these deformities and propose calcium supplementation as a potential treatment of Malawian rickets. Introduction: Surgical correction of rickets-like lower limb deformities is the most common paediatric operation performed at Beit Cure Orthopaedic Hospital, Malawi. The aim of this study was to investigate the aetiology of these deformities. Methods: Children with a tibio-femoral angle of deformity >20° were enrolled (n = 42, 3.0–15.0 years). Anthropometric and early life and well-being data were collected. Early morning serum and urine samples were collected on the morning of the operation for markers of calcium and phosphate homeostasis. Knee radiographs were obtained, and the children were diagnosed with either Blount (BD, n = 22) or evidence of rickets disease (RD, n = 20). As BD is a mechanical rather than metabolic disease, BD were assumed to be biochemically representative of the local population and thus used as a local reference for RD. Results: There were no differences in anthropometry or early life experiences between BD and RD. Parathyroid hormone (PTH), 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D, total alkaline phosphatase and urinary phosphate were significantly higher and serum phosphate, 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) and tubular maximal reabsorption of phosphate significantly lower in RD than BD. There was no difference in serum calcium, fibroblast growth factor 23 or markers of iron status between groups. All children had 25OHD > 25 nmol/L. Conclusions: Vitamin D deficiency is not implicated in the aetiology of RD or BD in Malawian children. The cause of RD in Malawi is likely to be dietary calcium deficiency leading to elevated PTH resulting in increased losses of phosphate from the bone and glomerular filtrate. The causes of BD remain unclear; there was no evidence in support of previously suggested risk factors such as being overweight or starting to walk early. Prior to surgical intervention, supplementation with calcium should be considered for children with RD

Overexpressed vs mutated Kras in murine fibroblasts: a molecular phenotyping study

Ras acts in signalling pathways regulating the activity of multiple cellular functions including cell proliferation, differentiation, and apoptosis. Amino-acid exchanges at position 12, 13, or 61 of the Kras gene convert the proto-oncogene into an activated oncogene. Until now, a direct comparison of genome-wide expression profiling studies of Kras overexpression and different Kras mutant forms in a single assay system has not been carried out. In our study, we focused on the direct comparison of global gene expression effects caused by mutations in codon 12 or 13 of the Kras gene and Kras overexpression in murine fibroblasts. We determined Kras cellular mRNA, Ras protein and activated Ras protein levels. Further, we compared our data to the proteome analysis of the same transfected cell lines. Both overexpression and mutations of Kras lead to common altered gene expression patterns. Only two genes, Lox and Col1a1, were reversely regulated in the Kras transfectants. They may contribute to the higher aggressiveness of the Kras codon 12 mutation in tumour progression. The functional annotation of differentially expressed genes revealed a high frequency of proteins involved in tumour growth and angiogenesis. These data further support the important role of these genes in tumour-associated angiogenesis

A phase II trial of lomeguatrib and temozolomide in metastatic colorectal cancer

To evaluate the tumour response to lomeguatrib and temozolomide (TMZ) administered for 5 consecutive days every 4 weeks in patients with metastatic colorectal carcinoma. Patients with stage IV metastatic colorectal carcinoma received lomeguatrib (40 mg) and TMZ (50–200 mg m−2) orally for 5 consecutive days every 4 weeks. Response was determined every two cycles. Pharmacokinetics of lomeguatrib and TMZ as well as their pharmacodynamic effects in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) were determined. Nineteen patients received 49 cycles of treatments. Despite consistent depletion of O6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase in PBMC, none of the patients responded to treatment. Three patients had stable disease, one for the duration of the study, and no fall in carcinoembryonic antigen was observed in any patient. Median time to progression was 50 days. The commonest adverse effects were gastrointestinal and haematological and these were comparable to those of TMZ when given alone. This combination of lomeguatrib and TMZ is not efficacious in metastatic colorectal cancer. If further studies are to be performed, emerging data suggest that higher daily doses of lomeguatrib and a dosing period beyond that of TMZ should be evaluated

Gender comparisons of fat talk in the United Kingdom and the United States

This study compared different forms of body talk, including "fat talk," among 231 university men and women in central England (UK; n = 93) and the southeastern United States (US; n = 138). A 2 (gender) by 2 (country) repeated measures ANOVA across types of body talk (negative, self-accepting, positive) and additional Chi-square analyses revealed that there were differences across gender and between the UK and US cultures. Specifically, UK and US women were more likely to report frequently hearing or perceiving pressure to engage in fat talk than men. US women and men were also more likely to report pressure to join in self-accepting body talk than UK women and men

Associations of Variants in CHRNA5/A3/B4 Gene Cluster with Smoking Behaviors in a Korean Population

Multiple genome-wide and targeted association studies reveal a significant association of variants in the CHRNA5-CHRNA3-CHRNB4 (CHRNA5/A3/B4) gene cluster on chromosome 15 with nicotine dependence. The subjects examined in most of these studies had a European origin. However, considering the distinct linkage disequilibrium patterns in European and other ethnic populations, it would be of tremendous interest to determine whether such associations could be replicated in populations of other ethnicities, such as Asians. In this study, we performed comprehensive association and interaction analyses for 32 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in CHRNA5/A3/B4 with smoking initiation (SI), smoking quantity (SQ), and smoking cessation (SC) in a Korean sample (N = 8,842). We found nominally significant associations of 7 SNPs with at least one smoking-related phenotype in the total sample (SI: P = 0.015∼0.023; SQ: P = 0.008∼0.028; SC: P = 0.018∼0.047) and the male sample (SI: P = 0.001∼0.023; SQ: P = 0.001∼0.046; SC: P = 0.01). A spectrum of haplotypes formed by three consecutive SNPs located between rs16969948 in CHRNA5 and rs6495316 in the intergenic region downstream from the 5′ end of CHRNB4 was associated with these three smoking-related phenotypes in both the total and the male sample. Notably, associations of these variants and haplotypes with SC appear to be much weaker than those with SI and SQ. In addition, we performed an interaction analysis of SNPs within the cluster using the generalized multifactor dimensionality reduction method and found a significant interaction of SNPs rs7163730 in LOC123688, rs6495308 in CHRNA3, and rs7166158, rs8043123, and rs11072793 in the intergenic region downstream from the 5′ end of CHRNB4 to be influencing SI in the male sample. Considering that fewer than 5% of the female participants were smokers, we did not perform any analysis on female subjects specifically. Together, our detected associations of variants in the CHRNA5/A3/B4 cluster with SI, SQ, and SC in the Korean smoker samples provide strong evidence for the contribution of this cluster to the etiology of SI, ND, and SC in this Asian population

Risk of Parkinson's disease after tamoxifen treatment

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Women have a reduced risk of developing Parkinson's disease (PD) compared with age-matched men. Neuro-protective effects of estrogen potentially explain this difference. Tamoxifen, commonly used in breast cancer treatment, may interfere with the protective effects of estrogen and increase risk of PD. We compared the rate of PD in Danish breast cancer patients treated with tamoxifen to the rate among those not treated with tamoxifen.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cohort of 15,419 breast cancer patients identified from the Danish Breast Cancer Collaborative Group database was linked to the National Registry of Patients to identify PD diagnoses. Overall risk and rate of PD following identification into the study was compared between patients treated with tamoxifen as adjuvant hormonal therapy and patients not receiving tamoxifen. Time-dependent effects of tamoxifen treatment on PD rate were examined to estimate the likely induction period for tamoxifen.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In total, 35 cases of PD were identified among the 15,419 breast cancer patients. No overall effect of tamoxifen on rate of PD was observed (HR = 1.3, 95% CI: 0.64-2.5), but a PD hazard ratio of 5.1 (95% CI: 1.0-25) was seen four to six years following initiation of tamoxifen treatment.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These results provide evidence that the neuro-protective properties of estrogen against PD occurrence may be disrupted by tamoxifen therapy. Tamoxifen treatments may be associated with an increased rate of PD; however these effects act after four years, are of limited duration, and the adverse effect is overwhelmed by the protection against breast recurrence conferred by tamoxifen therapy.</p

Intracellular chloride concentration influences the GABAA receptor subunit composition

GABAA receptors (GABAARs) exist as different subtype variants showing unique functional properties and defined spatio-temporal expression pattern. The molecular mechanisms underlying the developmental expression of different GABAAR are largely unknown. The intracellular concentration of chloride ([Cl−]i), the main ion permeating through GABAARs, also undergoes considerable changes during maturation, being higher at early neuronal stages with respect to adult neurons. Here we investigate the possibility that [Cl−]i could modulate the sequential expression of specific GABAARs subtypes in primary cerebellar neurons. We show that [Cl−]i regulates the expression of α3-1 and δ-containing GABAA receptors, responsible for phasic and tonic inhibition, respectively. Our findings highlight the role of [Cl−]i in tuning the strength of GABAergic responses by acting as an intracellular messenger

National Prevalence and Trends of HIV Transmitted Drug Resistance in Mexico

BACKGROUND: Transmitted drug resistance (TDR) remains an important concern for the management of HIV infection, especially in countries that have recently scaled-up antiretroviral treatment (ART) access. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We designed a study to assess HIV diversity and transmitted drug resistance (TDR) prevalence and trends in Mexico. 1655 ART-naïve patients from 12 Mexican states were enrolled from 2005 to 2010. TDR was assessed from plasma HIV pol sequences using Stanford scores and the WHO TDR surveillance mutation list. TDR prevalence fluctuations over back-projected dates of infection were tested. HIV subtype B was highly prevalent in Mexico (99.9%). TDR prevalence (Stanford score>15) in the country for the study period was 7.4% (95% CI, 6.2∶8.8) and 6.8% (95% CI, 5.7∶8.2) based on the WHO TDR surveillance mutation list. NRTI TDR was the highest (4.2%), followed by NNRTI (2.5%) and PI (1.7%) TDR. Increasing trends for NNRTI (p = 0.0456) and PI (p = 0.0061) major TDR mutations were observed at the national level. Clustering of viruses containing minor TDR mutations was observed with some apparent transmission pairs and geographical effects. CONCLUSIONS: TDR prevalence in Mexico remains at the intermediate level and is slightly lower than that observed in industrialized countries. Whether regional variations in TDR trends are associated with differences in antiretroviral drug usage/ART efficacy or with local features of viral evolution remains to be further addressed