Probability of noise- and rate-induced tipping

We propose an approximation for the probability of tipping when the speed of parameter change and additive white noise interact to cause tipping. Our approximation is valid for small to moderate drift speeds and helps to estimate the probability of false positives and false negatives in early-warning indicators in the case of rate- and noise-induced tipping. We illustrate our approximation on a prototypical model for rate-induced tipping with additive noise using Monte-Carlo simulations. The formula can be extended to close encounters of rate-induced tipping and is otherwise applicable to other forms of tipping. We also provide an asymptotic formula for the critical ramp speed of the parameter in the absence of noise for a general class of systems undergoing rate-induced tipping.Comment: 14 pages, 9 figures https://link.aps.org/doi/10.1103/PhysRevE.95.05220

Inverse-square law between time and amplitude for crossing tipping thresholds

A classical scenario for tipping is that a dynamical system experiences a slow parameter drift across a fold tipping point, caused by a run-away positive feedback loop. We study what happens if one turns around after one has crossed the threshold. We derive a simple criterion that relates how far the parameter exceeds the tipping threshold maximally and how long the parameter stays above the threshold to avoid tipping in an inverse-square law to observable properties of the dynamical system near the fold. For the case when the dynamical system is subject to stochastic forcing we give an approximation to the probability of tipping if a parameter changing in time reverses} near the tipping point. The derived approximations are valid if the parameter change in time is sufficiently slow. We demonstrate for a higher dimensional system, a model for the Indian Summer Monsoon, how numerically observed escape from the equilibrium converge to our asymptotic expressions. The inverse-square law between peak of the parameter forcing and the time the parameter spends above a given threshold is also visible in the level curves of equal probability when the system is subject to random disturbances.Comment: 20 pages, 6 figures, 1 table, Supplementary Material found at https://figshare.com/articles/Monsoon_supplementary_material_final_pdf/760582

Unusual Metabolism and Hypervariation in the Genome of a Gracilibacterium (BD1-5) from an Oil-Degrading Community.

The candidate phyla radiation (CPR) comprises a large monophyletic group of bacterial lineages known almost exclusively based on genomes obtained using cultivation-independent methods. Within the CPR, Gracilibacteria (BD1-5) are particularly poorly understood due to undersampling and the inherent fragmented nature of available genomes. Here, we report the first closed, curated genome of a gracilibacterium from an enrichment experiment inoculated from the Gulf of Mexico and designed to investigate hydrocarbon degradation. The gracilibacterium rose in abundance after the community switched to dominance by Colwellia Notably, we predict that this gracilibacterium completely lacks glycolysis, the pentose phosphate and Entner-Doudoroff pathways. It appears to acquire pyruvate, acetyl coenzyme A (acetyl-CoA), and oxaloacetate via degradation of externally derived citrate, malate, and amino acids and may use compound interconversion and oxidoreductases to generate and recycle reductive power. The initial genome assembly was fragmented in an unusual gene that is hypervariable within a repeat region. Such extreme local variation is rare but characteristic of genes that confer traits under pressure to diversify within a population. Notably, the four major repeated 9-mer nucleotide sequences all generate a proline-threonine-aspartic acid (PTD) repeat. The genome of an abundant Colwellia psychrerythraea population has a large extracellular protein that also contains the repeated PTD motif. Although we do not know the host for the BD1-5 cell, the high relative abundance of the C. psychrerythraea population and the shared surface protein repeat may indicate an association between these bacteria.IMPORTANCE CPR bacteria are generally predicted to be symbionts due to their extensive biosynthetic deficits. Although monophyletic, they are not monolithic in terms of their lifestyles. The organism described here appears to have evolved an unusual metabolic platform not reliant on glucose or pentose sugars. Its biology appears to be centered around bacterial host-derived compounds and/or cell detritus. Amino acids likely provide building blocks for nucleic acids, peptidoglycan, and protein synthesis. We resolved an unusual repeat region that would be invisible without genome curation. The nucleotide sequence is apparently under strong diversifying selection, but the amino acid sequence is under stabilizing selection. The amino acid repeat also occurs in a surface protein of a coexisting bacterium, suggesting colocation and possibly interdependence

Weak localization with nonlinear bosonic matter waves

We investigate the coherent propagation of dilute atomic Bose-Einstein condensates through irregularly shaped billiard geometries that are attached to uniform incoming and outgoing waveguides. Using the mean-field description based on the nonlinear Gross-Pitaevskii equation, we develop a diagrammatic theory for the self-consistent stationary scattering state of the interacting condensate, which is combined with the semiclassical representation of the single-particle Green function in terms of chaotic classical trajectories within the billiard. This analytical approach predicts a universal dephasing of weak localization in the presence of a small interaction strength between the atoms, which is found to be in good agreement with the numerically computed reflection and transmission probabilities of the propagating condensate. The numerical simulation of this quasi-stationary scattering process indicates that this interaction-induced dephasing mechanism may give rise to a signature of weak antilocalization, which we attribute to the influence of non-universal short-path contributions.Comment: 67 pages, 19 figure

Superiority of semiclassical over quantum mechanical calculations for a three-dimensional system

In systems with few degrees of freedom modern quantum calculations are, in general, numerically more efficient than semiclassical methods. However, this situation can be reversed with increasing dimension of the problem. For a three-dimensional system, viz. the hyperbolic four-sphere scattering system, we demonstrate the superiority of semiclassical versus quantum calculations. Semiclassical resonances can easily be obtained even in energy regions which are unattainable with the currently available quantum techniques.Comment: 10 pages, 1 figure, submitted to Phys. Lett.

A semiclassical approach to the Dirac equation

We derive a semiclassical time evolution kernel and a trace formula for the Dirac equation. The classical trajectories that enter the expressions are determined by the dynamics of relativistic point particles. We carefully investigate the transport of the spin degrees of freedom along the trajectories which can be understood geometrically as parallel transport in a vector bundle with SU(2) holonomy. Furthermore, we give an interpretation in terms of a classical spin vector that is transported along the trajectories and whose dynamics, dictated by the equation of Thomas precession, gives rise to dynamical and geometric phases every orbit is weighted by. We also present an analogous approach to the Pauli equation which we analyse in two different limits

Agricultural land use changes – a scenario-based sustainability impact assessment for Brandenburg, Germany

AbstractDecisions for agricultural management are taken at farm scale. However, such decisions may well impact upon regional sustainability. Two of the likely agricultural management responses to future challenges are extended use of irrigation and increased production of energy crops. The drivers for these are high commodity prices and subsidy policies for renewable energy. However, the impacts of these responses upon regional sustainability are unknown. Thus, we conducted integrated impact assessments for agricultural intensification scenarios in the federal state of Brandenburg, Germany, for 2025. One Irrigation scenario and one Energy scenario were contrasted with the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario. We applied nine indicators to analyze the economic, social and environmental effects at the regional, in this case district scale, which is the smallest administrative unit in Brandenburg. Assessment results were discussed in a stakeholder workshop involving 16 experts from the state government.The simulated area shares of silage maize for fodder and energy were 29%, 37% and 49% for the BAU, Irrigation, and Energy scenarios, respectively. The Energy scenario increased bio-electricity production to 41% of the demand of Brandenburg, and it resulted in CO2 savings of up to 3.5milliontons. However, it resulted in loss of biodiversity, loss of landscape scenery, increased soil erosion risk, and increased area demand for water protection requirements. The Irrigation scenario led to yield increases of 7% (rapeseed), 18% (wheat, sugar beet), and 40% (maize) compared to the BAU scenario. It also reduced the year-to-year yield variability. Water demand for irrigation was found to be in conflict with other water uses for two of the 14 districts. Spatial differentiation of scenario impacts showed that districts with medium to low yield potentials were more affected by negative impacts than districts with high yield potentials.In this first comprehensive sustainability impact assessment of agricultural intensification scenarios at regional level, we showed that a considerable potential for agricultural intensification exists. The intensification is accompanied by adverse environmental and socio-economic impacts. The novelty lies in the multiscale integration of comprehensive, agricultural management simulations with regional level impact assessment, which was achieved with the adequate use of indicators. It provided relevant evidence for policy decision making. Stakeholders appreciated the integrative approach of the assessment, which substantiated ongoing discussions among the government bodies. The assessment approach and the Brandenburg case study may stay exemplary for other regions in the world where similar economic and policy driving forces are likely to lead to agricultural intensification

Magnetic cluster excitations in the antiferromagnetic phase of a-MnMoO4

The tetramer-based compound a-MnMoO4 exhibits four prominent peaks in the inelastic neutron scattering (INS) spectrum between 0.5 and 2.0 meV below 10 K. They are assigned to magnetic excitations of the (Mn2+)4 rhombus shaped cluster, with resulting values of the exchange parameters J= +0.051 meV and J= -0.019 meV along the edges and the short diagonal, respectively. The interactions within the tetramer are treated exactly in an isotropic quantum mechanical model leading to an S510 cluster ground state. The weaker antiferromagnetic (AFM) intercluster interactions, Jint = -4.5*10-3 meV, are treated in a molecular-field model below the AFM transition temperature TN= 10.7 K. INS and susceptibility are in quantitative agreement with this approach

Interleukin-11 Is the Dominant IL-6 Family Cytokine during Gastrointestinal Tumorigenesis and Can Be Targeted Therapeutically

SummaryAmong the cytokines linked to inflammation-associated cancer, interleukin (IL)-6 drives many of the cancer “hallmarks” through downstream activation of the gp130/STAT3 signaling pathway. However, we show that the related cytokine IL-11 has a stronger correlation with elevated STAT3 activation in human gastrointestinal cancers. Using genetic mouse models, we reveal that IL-11 has a more prominent role compared to IL-6 during the progression of sporadic and inflammation-associated colon and gastric cancers. Accordingly, in these models and in human tumor cell line xenograft models, pharmacologic inhibition of IL-11 signaling alleviated STAT3 activation, suppressed tumor cell proliferation, and reduced the invasive capacity and growth of tumors. Our results identify IL-11 signaling as a potential therapeutic target for the treatment of gastrointestinal cancers