Moral Hazard and the US Stockmarket: Analyzing the "Greenspan Put"

When the risk premium in the US stock market fell far below its historic level, Shiller (2000) attributed this to a bubble driven by psychological factors. As an alternative explanation, we point out that the observed risk premium may be reduced by one-sided intervention policy on the part of the Federal Reserve, which leads investors into the erroneous belief that they are insured against downside risk. By allowing for partial credibility and state dependent risk aversion, we show that this "insurance" - referred to as the Greenspan put - is consistent with the observation that implied volatility rises as the market falls. Our bubble, like Shiller's, involves market psychology, but what we describe is not so much "irrational exuberance" as exaggerated faith in the stabilizing power of Mr. Greenspan.

Decoherence Effects in Reactive Scattering

Decoherence effects on quantum and classical dynamics in reactive scattering are examined using a Caldeira-Leggett type model. Through a study of dynamics of the collinear H+H2 reaction and the transmission over simple one-dimensional barrier potentials, we show that decoherence leads to improved agreement between quantum and classical reaction and transmission probabilities, primarily by increasing the energy dispersion in a well defined way. Increased potential nonlinearity is seen to require larger decoherence in order to attain comparable quantum-classical agreement.Comment: 25 pages, 6 figures, to be published in J. Chem. Phy

Common Cause Failure Prediction Using Data Mapping

To estimate power plant reliability, a probabilistic safety assessment might combine failure data from various sites. Because dependent failures are a critical concern in the nuclear industry, combining failure data from component groups of different sizes is a challenging problem. One procedure, called data mapping, translates failure data across component group sizes. This includes common cause failures, which are simultaneous failure events of two or more components in a group. In this paper, we present methods for predicting future plant reliability using mapped common cause failure data. The prediction technique is motivated by discrete failure data from emergency diesel generators at U.S. plants. The underlying failure distributions are based on homogeneous Poisson processes. Both Bayesian and frequentist prediction methods are presented, and if non-informative prior distributions are applied, the upper prediction bounds for the generators are the same

COMPLEMENT-DEPENDENT RELEASE OF IMMUNE COMPLEXES FROM THE LYMPHOCYTE MEMBRANE

Soluble antigen-antibody-complement complexes bound to mouse B lymphocytes are rapidly released from the cell membrane in the presence of normal serum from several mammalian species. The release is not the result of antigen-antibody dissociation or extensive degradation of the complexes. However, the released complexes have been altered because they will no longer bind to fresh lymphocytes. The release is not the result of lymphocyte damage mediated by complement. It is complement-dependent, and is generated either preferentially or exclusively via the alternate pathway, since it occurs in C4-deficient serum, is Mg++ but not Ca++ dependent, and requires C3 proactivator. C3 inactivator is not involved. The release activity of the serum, once generated, is unstable at 37°C. The release of complexes from the lymphocyte membrane by serum provides a convenient assay for the functioning of the alternate pathway in the mouse and in other species

Federal Appellate Court Decision in Environmental Defense Fund et al., Plaintiffs Appellees, v. Tennessee Valley Authority et al., Defendants-Appellants, No. 74-1139

Federal Appellate Court decision in the case of EDF v. TVA, upholding the lower court\u27s decision in favor of TVA, allowing the construction of the Tellico Dam to go forward. This decision was published in West\u27s Federal Reporter at 492 F.2d 466 (1974)

Connection between the elastic GEp/GMp and P to Delta form factors

It is suggested that the falloff in Qsq of the P to Delta magnetic form factor GM* is related to the recently observed falloff of the elastic electric form factor GEp/GMp. Calculation is carried out in the framework of a GPD mechanism

Validity of the activPAL3 activity monitor in people moderately affected by Multiple Sclerosis

Background: Walking is the primary form of physical activity performed by people with Multiple Sclerosis (MS), therefore it is important to ensure the validity of tools employed to measure walking activity. The aim of this study was to assess the criterion validity of the activPAL3 activity monitor during overground walking in people with MS.\ud Methods: Validity of the activPAL3 accelerometer was compared to video observation in 20 people moderately affected by MS. Participants walked 20-30m twice along a straight quiet corridor at a comfortable speed.\ud Results: Inter-rater reliability of video observations was excellent (all intraclass correlations > 0.99). The mean difference (activPAL3- mean of raters) was -4.70 ± 9.09, -4.55 s ± 10.76 and 1.11 s ± 1.11 for steps taken, walking duration and upright duration respectively. These differences represented 8.7, 10.0 and 1.8% of the mean for each measure respectively. The activPAL3 tended to underestimate steps taken and walking duration in those who walked at cadences of ≤ 38 steps/minute by 60% and 47% respectively.\ud Discussion: The activPAL3 is valid for measuring walking activity in people moderately affected by MS. It is accurate for upright duration regardless of cadence. In participants with slow walking cadences, outcomes of steps taken and walking duration should be interpreted with caution

The Ursinus Weekly, March 20, 1939

WSGA to hold home conference • Weekly board picks Alspach new editor to succeed Dunn • Shearer, Snyder leads in Love-in-a-mist cast • Coeds select Long queen of the May • Six prose selections, many poems in Lantern • Junior prom orchestra praised by Rudy Vallee • Hall chems to show film • Large crowd sees Miss Huet portray romantic life of Peggy Shippen in gym • College players will act at Penn; spring tryouts tonight • Regional council of SCM to meet here this week-end • Reporter finds Zacharias Ursinus anonymous writer, humble scholar • Eight Ursinus pageants given outside of college • Jack Mitterling to coach baseball at U. of Pittsburgh • Advisory committee collects vocational data as office releases occupation test results • Women hear May Day plans at Tuesday mass meeting • Trucksess addresses pre-legal society on duties of a lawyer • Women participate in two home debates during week • Alspach, Dunn to attend INA Carlisle conclave • Annual intramural fuss Tuesday eve • New hurling rule will change baseball, Jing • 17 battery candidates largest crop in years • Girls bow to Beaver College Friday afternoon 33-27 • Letter: Students do want wrestling at Ursinus • Dr. Baker, Barbour present different aspect of Jewish problem in new IRC Quarterly • Zeigler elected to head York alumni at dinner Saturday • Make-up artist coming to campushttps://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/weekly/1865/thumbnail.jp

Electrocardiographic detection of left ventricular hypertrophy using echocardiographic determination of left ventricular mass as the reference standard Comparison of standard criteria, computer diagnosis and physician interpretation

Electrocardiographic findings of left ventricular hypertrophy were compared with echocardiographic left ventricular mass in 148 patients to assess performance of standard electrocardiographic criteria, the IBM Bonner program and physician interpretation. On echocardiography, 43% of the patients had left ventricular hypertrophy (left ventricular mass > 215 g). Sokolow-Lyon voltage (S in V1+ R in V5or V6) and Romhilt-Estes point score correlated modestly with left ventricular mass (r = 0.40, p < 0.001 and r = 0.55, p < 0.001, respectively). Sensitivity of Sokolow-Lyon voltage greater than 3.5 mV for left ventricular hypertrophy was only 22%, but specificity was 93%. Point score for probable left ventricular hypertrophy (≥ 4 points) had 48% sensitivity and 85% specificity, whereas definite hypertrophy (≥ 5 points) had 34% sensitivity and 98% specificity. Computer analysis resulted in 45% sensitivity and 83% specificity. Overall diagnostic accuracy of the IBM Bonner program (67%) was better than that of Sokolow-Lyon voltage (62%), but worse than the Romhilt-Estes point score (69% for ≥ 4 points or 70% for ≥ 5 points). Three cardiologists interpreted electrocardiograms independently and in a blinded fashion. Physician sensitivity was 56%, specificity 92% and accuracy 76%. Correlation with left ventricular hypertrophy was good (r = 0.70, p < 0.001).It is concluded that: 1) computer diagnosis of left ventricular hypertrophy by the IBM Bonner program is no more accurate than diagnosis by Sokolow-Lyon or Romhilt-Estes criteria, and 2) physician recognition of left ventricular hypertrophy is more accurate. This suggests that additional information about left ventricular hypertrophy is present in the electrocardiogram that is not detectable by standard criteria or the IBM computer program