Clear Evidence for Intranight Optical Variability in Radio-quiet Quasars

We present new clues to the problem of the radio loudness dichotomy arising from an extensive search for intranight optical variability in seven sets of optically luminous radio-quiet quasars and (radio-loud) BL Lacertae objects, which are matched in optical luminosity and redshift. Our monitoring of radio-quiet quasars has for the first time clearly detected such intranight variability, with peak-to-peak amplitudes ~1%, occurring with a duty cycle of ~ 1/6. The matched BL Lacs have both higher variability amplitudes and duty cycles when observed in the same fashion. We show that the much less pronounced intranight variability of the radio-quiet quasars relative to BL Lacs can be understood in terms of a modest misalignment of the jets in radio-quiet quasars from the line-of-sight. We thus infer that relativistic particle jets may well also emerge from radio-quiet quasars, but while traversing the short optical-emitting distances, they could be snuffed out, possibly through inverse Compton losses in the nuclear region.Comment: 13 pages, 3 figures, in press in ApJ Letters (20 March 2003

Improved characterisation of intra-night optical variability of prominent AGN classes

The incidence of intra-night optical variability (INOV) is known to to differ significantly among different classes of powerful active galactic nuclei (AGN). A number of statistical methods have been employed in the literature for testing the presence of INOV in the light curves, sometimes leading to discordant results. In this paper we compare the INOV characteristics of six prominent classes of AGN, as evaluated using three commonly used statistical tests, namely the $\chi^2-$test, the modified $C-$test and the $F-$test, which has recently begun to gain popularity. The AGN classes considered are: radio-quiet quasars (RQQs), radio-intermediate quasars (RIQs), lobe-dominated quasars (LDQs), low optical polarization core-dominated quasars (LPCDQs), high optical polarization core-dominated quasars (HPCDQs), and TeV blazars. Our analysis is based on a large body of AGN monitoring data, involving 262 sessions of intra-night monitoring of a total 77 AGN, using 1-2 metre class optical telescopes located in India. In order to compare the usefulness of the statistical tests, we have also subjected them to a `sanity check' by comparing the number of false positives yielded by each test with the corresponding statistical prediction. The present analysis is intended to serve as a benchmark for future INOV studies of AGN of different classes.Comment: 26 pages, 2 tables, Accepted for publication in MNRA

Bayes Estimation of a Distribution Function Using Ranked Set Samples

Aranked set sample (RSS), if not balanced, is simply a sample of independent order statistics generated from the same underlying distribution F. Kvam and Samaniego (1994) derived maximum likelihood estimates of F for a general RSS. In many applications, including some in the environmental sciences, prior information about F is available to supplement the data-based inference. In such cases, Bayes estimators should be considered for improved estimation. Bayes estimation (using the squared error loss function) of the unknown distribution function F is investigated with such samples. Additionally, the Bayes generalized maximum likelihood estimator (GMLE) is derived. An iterative scheme based on the EM Algorithm is used to produce the GMLE of F. For the case of squared error loss, simple solutions are uncommon, and a procedure to find the solution to the Bayes estimate using the Gibbs sampler is illustrated. The methods are illustrated with data from the Natural Environmental Research Council of Great Britain (1975), representing water discharge of floods on the Nidd River in Yorkshire, Englan

Ranked set sampling from location-scale families of symmetric distributions

Statistical inference based on ranked set sampling has primarily been motivated by nonparametric problems. However, the sampling procedure can provide an improved estimator of the population mean when the population is partially known. In this article, we consider estimation of the population mean and variance for the location-scale families of distributions. We derive and compare different unbiased estimators of these parameters based on independent replications of a ranked set sample of size n. Large sample properties, along with asymptotic relative efficiencies, help identify which estimators are best suited for different location-scale distributions

On the photometric error calibration for the `differential light curves' of point-like Active Galactic Nuclei

It is important to quantify the underestimation of rms photometric errors returned by the commonly used \emph APPHOT algorithm in the \emph IRAF software, in the context of differential photometry of point-like AGN, because of the crucial role it plays in evaluating their variability properties. Published values of the underestimation factor, $\eta$, using several different telescopes, lie in the range 1.3 - 1.75. The present study aims to revisit this question by employing an exceptionally large data set of 262 differential light curves (DLCs) derived from 262 pairs of non-varying stars monitored under our ARIES AGN monitoring program for characterizing the intra-night optical variability (INOV) of prominent AGN classes. The bulk of these data were taken with the 1-m Sampurnanad Telescope (ST). We find $\eta$ = 1.54$\pm$0.05 which is close to our recently reported value of $\eta$ = 1.5. Moreover, this consistency holds at least up to a brightness mismatch of 1.5 mag between the paired stars. From this we infer that a magnitude difference of at least up to 1.5 mag between a point-like AGN and comparison star(s) monitored simultaneously is within the same CCD chip acceptable, as it should not lead to spurious claims of INOV.Comment: 20 pages, 3 figures and 1 table; accepted for publication in JAp

Nonparametric Estimation of the Survival Function Based on Censored Data with Additional Observations from the Residual Distribution

We derive the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) of the distribution of the test items using a random, right-censored sample combined with an additional right-censored, residual-lifetime sample in which only lifetimes past a known, fixed time are collected. This framework is suited for samples for which individual test data are combined with left-truncated and randomly censored data from an operating environment. The NPMLE of the survival function using the combined sample is identical to the Kaplan-Meier product-limit estimator only up to the time at which the test items corresponding to the residual sample were known to survive. The limiting distribution for the NPMLE, discussed in detail, leads to confidence bounds for the survival function. For the uncensored case, we study the relative efficiency for the estimator based on the combined sample with respect to the analogous estimator based only on the simple random sample

Nonparametric Bayes Estimation of Contamination Levels using Observations from the Residual Distribution

A nonparametric Bayes estimator of the survival function is derived for right censored data where additional observations from the residual distribution are available. The estimation is motivated by data on contamination concentrations for chromium from one of the EPA\u27s toxic waste sites. The residual sample can be produced by hot spot sampling, where only samples above a given threshold value are collected. The Dirichlet process is used to formulate prior information about the chromium contamination, and we compare the Bayes estimator of the mean concentration level to other estimators currently considered by the EPA and other sources. The Bayes estimator generally out- performs the other estimators under various cost functions. The limiting distribution is the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator, which is identical to the Kaplan-Meier estimator for concentration values observed below the residual sample threshold. Robustness of the Bayes estimate is examined with respect to misspecification of the prior and its sensitivity to the censoring distribution

A More Powerful Test For Three-Arm Non-inferiority Via Risk Difference: Frequentist and Bayesian approaches

Necessity for finding improved intervention in many legacy therapeutic areas are of high priority. This has the potential to decrease the expense of medical care and poor outcomes for many patients. Typically, clinical efficacy is the primary evaluating criteria to measure any beneficial effect of a treatment. Albeit, there could be situations when several other factors (e.g. side-effects, cost-burden, less debilitating, less intensive, etc.) which can permit some slightly less efficacious treatment options favorable to a subgroup of patients. This often leads to non-inferiority (NI) testing. NI trials may or may not include a placebo arm due to ethical reasons. However, when included, the resulting three-arm trial is more prudent since it requires less stringent assumptions compared to a two-arm placebo-free trial. In this article, we consider both Frequentist and Bayesian procedures for testing NI in the three-arm trial with binary outcomes when the functional of interest is risk difference. An improved Frequentist approach is proposed first, which is then followed by a Bayesian counterpart. Bayesian methods have a natural advantage in many active-control trials, including NI trial, as it can seamlessly integrate substantial prior information. In addition, we discuss sample size calculation and draw an interesting connection between the two paradigms

Intranight optical variability of radio-quiet and radio lobe-dominated quasars

We present results of a programme of multi-epoch, intranight optical monitoring of a sample of non-blazar-type active galactic nuclei (AGN), which includes seven radio-quiet quasars (RQQs) and an equal number of radio-loud, lobe-dominated quasars (LDQs), covering a redshift range from about 0.2 to 2.0. These two sets of optically bright and intrinsically luminous quasi-stellar objects (QSOs) are well matched in the redshift-optical luminosity (z-MB) plane. Our CCD monitoring covered a total of 61 nights with an average of 6.1 hours of densely sampled monitoring of just a single QSO per night, thereby achieving a typical detection threshold of ~1 per cent variation over the night. Unambiguous detection of intranight optical variability (INOV) amplitudes in the range 1-3 per cent on day-like or shorter time-scales were thus made for both RQQs and LDQs. Based on these clear detections of INOV, we estimate duty cycles of 17 and 9 per cent for RQQs and LDQs, respectively; inclusion of the two cases of probable variations of LDQs would raise the duty cycle to 15 per cent for LDQs. The similarity in the duty cycle and amplitude of INOV for the RQQs and LDQs suggests, first, that the radio loudness alone does not guarantee an enhanced INOV in QSOs and, secondly, that as in LDQs, relativistic jets may also be present in RQQs. We argue that, as compared to BL Lacs, the conspicuously milder, rarer and possibly slower INOV of RQQs and LDQs can in fact be readily understood in terms of their having optical synchrotron jets which are modestly misaligned from us, but are otherwise intrinsically as relativistic and active as the jets in BL Lacs. This points toward an orientation-based unifying scheme for the INOV of radio-loud and radio-quiet quasars. Variability of up to ~0.3 mag on month- to year-like time-scales is seen for nearly all those RQQs and LDQs in our sample for which sufficient temporal coverage is available. These data have revealed an interesting event that seems most likely explained as an occultation, lasting less than six months, of much of the nuclear optical continuum source in an RQQ. The observations reported here form part of a larger ongoing project to study the intranight optical variability of four major classes of powerful AGN, including blazars

Intranight optical variability of blazars

We present results of a multi-epoch intranight optical monitoring of 11 blazars consisting of six BL Lac objects and five radio core-dominated quasars (CDQs). These densely sampled and sensitive R-band CCD observations, carried out from 1998 November to 2002 May during a total of 47 nights with an average of 6.5 h per night, have enabled us to detect variability amplitudes as low as ~1 per cent on intranight time-scales. A distinction is found for the first time between the intranight optical variability (INOV) properties of the these two classes of relativistically beamed radio-loud active galactic nuclei (AGNs). BL Lacs are found to show a duty cycle (DC) of INOV of ~60 per cent, in contrast to CDQs, which show a much smaller INOV DC of ~20 per cent, the difference being attributable mainly to the weakly polarized CDQs. On longer time-scales (i.e. between a week to a few years) variability is seen from all the CDQs and BL Lacs in our sample. The results reported here form part of our long-term programme to understand the intranight optical variability characteristics of the four main classes of luminous AGNs, i.e. radio-quiet quasars (RQQs) and radio lobe-dominated quasars (LDQs), as well as CDQs and BL Lac objects