Dynamic linkages between stock markets : the effects of crises and globalization

This paper investigates changes in the dynamics of linkages between selected national stock markets during the period 1995–2009. The analysis focuses on the possible effects of globalization and differences between crisis and non-crisis periods. We model the dynamics of dependencies between the series of daily returns on selected stock indices over different time periods, and compare strength of the linkages. Our tools are dynamic copula models and a formal sequential testing procedure based on the model confidence set methodology. We consider two types of dependencies: regular dependence measured by means of the conditional Spearman’s rho, and dependencies in extremes quantified by the conditional tail dependence coefficients. The main result consists of a collection of rankings created for the considered subperiods, which show how the mean level of strength of the dependencies have been changing in time. The rankings obtained for Spearman’s rho and tail dependencies differ, which allows us to distinguish between the results of crises and the effect of globalization.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Standardized volumetric 3D-analysis of SPECT/CT imaging in orthopaedics: overcoming the limitations of qualitative 2D analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>SPECT/CT combines high resolution anatomical 3D computerized tomography (CT) and single photon emission computerized tomography (SPECT) as functional imaging, which provides 3D information about biological processes into a single imaging modality. The clinical utility of SPECT/CT imaging has been recognized in a variety of medical fields and most recently in orthopaedics; however, clinical adoption has been limited due to shortcomings of analytical tools available. Specifically, SPECT analyses are mainly qualitative due to variation in overall metabolic uptake among patients. Furthermore, most analyses are done in 2D, although rich 3D data are available. Consequently, it is difficult to quantitatively compare the position, size, and intensity of SPECT uptake regions among patients, and therefore difficult to draw meaningful clinical conclusions.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We propose a method for normalizing orthopaedic SPECT/CT data that enables standardised 3D volumetric quantitative measurements and comparison among patients. Our method is based on 3D localisation using clinically relevant anatomical landmarks and frames of reference, along with intensity value normalisation using clinically relevant reference regions. Using the normalised data, we describe a thresholding technique to distinguish clinically relevant hot spots from background activity.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Using an exemplar comparison of two patients, we demonstrate how the normalised, 3D-rendered data can provide a richer source of clinical information and allow quantitative comparison of SPECT/CT measurements across patients. Specifically, we demonstrate how non-normalized SPECT/CT analysis can lead to different clinical conclusions than the normalized SPECT/CT analysis, and that normalized quantitative analysis can be a more accurate indicator of pathology.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Conventional orthopaedic frames of reference, 3D volumetric data analysis and thresholding are used to distinguish clinically relevant hot spots from background activity. Our goal is to facilitate a standardised approach to quantitative data collection and comparison of clinical studies using SPECT/CT, enabling more widespread clinical use of this powerful imaging tool.</p

Toward optimal implementation of cancer prevention and control programs in public health: A study protocol on mis-implementation

Abstract Background Much of the cancer burden in the USA is preventable, through application of existing knowledge. State-level funders and public health practitioners are in ideal positions to affect programs and policies related to cancer control. Mis-implementation refers to ending effective programs and policies prematurely or continuing ineffective ones. Greater attention to mis-implementation should lead to use of effective interventions and more efficient expenditure of resources, which in the long term, will lead to more positive cancer outcomes. Methods This is a three-phase study that takes a comprehensive approach, leading to the elucidation of tactics for addressing mis-implementation. Phase 1: We assess the extent to which mis-implementation is occurring among state cancer control programs in public health. This initial phase will involve a survey of 800 practitioners representing all states. The programs represented will span the full continuum of cancer control, from primary prevention to survivorship. Phase 2: Using data from phase 1 to identify organizations in which mis-implementation is particularly high or low, the team will conduct eight comparative case studies to get a richer understanding of mis-implementation and to understand contextual differences. These case studies will highlight lessons learned about mis-implementation and identify hypothesized drivers. Phase 3: Agent-based modeling will be used to identify dynamic interactions between individual capacity, organizational capacity, use of evidence, funding, and external factors driving mis-implementation. The team will then translate and disseminate findings from phases 1 to 3 to practitioners and practice-related stakeholders to support the reduction of mis-implementation. Discussion This study is innovative and significant because it will (1) be the first to refine and further develop reliable and valid measures of mis-implementation of public health programs; (2) bring together a strong, transdisciplinary team with significant expertise in practice-based research; (3) use agent-based modeling to address cancer control implementation; and (4) use a participatory, evidence-based, stakeholder-driven approach that will identify key leverage points for addressing mis-implementation among state public health programs. This research is expected to provide replicable computational simulation models that can identify leverage points and public health system dynamics to reduce mis-implementation in cancer control and may be of interest to other health areas

A Systems Approach for Tumor Pharmacokinetics

Recent advances in genome inspired target discovery, small molecule screens, development of biological and nanotechnology have led to the introduction of a myriad of new differently sized agents into the clinic. The differences in small and large molecule delivery are becoming increasingly important in combination therapies as well as the use of drugs that modify the physiology of tumors such as anti-angiogenic treatment. The complexity of targeting has led to the development of mathematical models to facilitate understanding, but unfortunately, these studies are often only applicable to a particular molecule, making pharmacokinetic comparisons difficult. Here we develop and describe a framework for categorizing primary pharmacokinetics of drugs in tumors. For modeling purposes, we define drugs not by their mechanism of action but rather their rate-limiting step of delivery. Our simulations account for variations in perfusion, vascularization, interstitial transport, and non-linear local binding and metabolism. Based on a comparison of the fundamental rates determining uptake, drugs were classified into four categories depending on whether uptake is limited by blood flow, extravasation, interstitial diffusion, or local binding and metabolism. Simulations comparing small molecule versus macromolecular drugs show a sharp difference in distribution, which has implications for multi-drug therapies. The tissue-level distribution differs widely in tumors for small molecules versus macromolecular biologic drugs, and this should be considered in the design of agents and treatments. An example using antibodies in mouse xenografts illustrates the different in vivo behavior. This type of transport analysis can be used to aid in model development, experimental data analysis, and imaging and therapeutic agent design.National Institutes of Health (U.S.) (grant T32 CA079443

Future therapeutic targets in rheumatoid arthritis?

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic inflammatory disease characterized by persistent joint inflammation. Without adequate treatment, patients with RA will develop joint deformity and progressive functional impairment. With the implementation of treat-to-target strategies and availability of biologic therapies, the outcomes for patients with RA have significantly improved. However, the unmet need in the treatment of RA remains high as some patients do not respond sufficiently to the currently available agents, remission is not always achieved and refractory disease is not uncommon. With better understanding of the pathophysiology of RA, new therapeutic approaches are emerging. Apart from more selective Janus kinase inhibition, there is a great interest in the granulocyte macrophage-colony stimulating factor pathway, Bruton's tyrosine kinase pathway, phosphoinositide-3-kinase pathway, neural stimulation and dendritic cell-based therapeutics. In this review, we will discuss the therapeutic potential of these novel approaches

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Interpreting outcome following foot surgery in people with rheumatoid arthritis

BACKGROUND: Foot surgery is common in RA but the current lack of understanding of how patients interpret outcomes inhibits evaluation of procedures in clinical and research settings. This study aimed to explore which factors are important to people with RA when they evaluate the outcome of foot and ankle surgery. METHODS AND RESULTS: Semi structured interviews with 11 RA participants who had mixed experiences of foot surgery were conducted and analysed using thematic analysis. Responses showed that while participants interpreted surgical outcome in respect to a multitude of factors, five major themes emerged: functional ability, participation, appearance of feet and footwear, surgeons' opinion, and pain. Participants interpreted levels of physical function in light of other aspects of their disease, reflecting on relative change from their preoperative state more than absolute levels of ability. Appearance was important to almost all participants: physical appearance, foot shape, and footwear were closely interlinked, yet participants saw these as distinct concepts and frequently entered into a defensive repertoire, feeling the need to justify that their perception of outcome was not about cosmesis. Surgeons' post-operative evaluation of the procedure was highly influential and made a lasting impression, irrespective of how the outcome compared to the participants' initial goals. Whilst pain was important to almost all participants, it had the greatest impact upon them when it interfered with their ability to undertake valued activities. CONCLUSIONS: People with RA interpret the outcome of foot surgery using multiple interrelated factors, particularly functional ability, appearance and surgeons' appraisal of the procedure. While pain was often noted, this appeared less important than anticipated. These factors can help clinicians in discussing surgical options in patients

An instrument to measure job satisfaction of nursing home administrators

BACKGROUND: The psychometric properties of the nursing home administrator job satisfaction questionnaire (NHA-JSQ) are presented, and the steps used to develop this instrument. METHODS: The NHA-JSQ subscales were developed from pilot survey activities with 93 administrators, content analysis, and a research panel. The resulting survey was sent to 1,000 nursing home administrators. Factor analyses were used to determine the psychometric properties of the instrument. RESULTS: Of the 1,000 surveys mailed, 721 usable surveys were returned (72 percent response rate). The factor analyses show that the items were representative of six underlying factors (i.e., coworkers, work demands, work content, work load, work skills, and rewards). CONCLUSION: The NHA-JSQ represents a short, psychometrically sound job satisfaction instrument for use in nursing homes