Observational needs for improving ocean and coupled reanalysis, S2S prediction, and decadal prediction

Developments in observing system technologies and ocean data assimilation (DA) are symbiotic. New observation types lead to new DA methods and new DA methods, such as coupled DA, can change the value of existing observations or indicate where new observations can have greater utility for monitoring and prediction. Practitioners of DA are encouraged to make better use of observations that are already available, for example, taking advantage of strongly coupled DA so that ocean observations can be used to improve atmospheric analyses and vice versa. Ocean reanalyses are useful for the analysis of climate as well as the initialization of operational long-range prediction models. There are many remaining challenges for ocean reanalyses due to biases and abrupt changes in the ocean-observing system throughout its history, the presence of biases and drifts in models, and the simplifying assumptions made in DA solution methods. From a governance point of view, more support is needed to bring the ocean-observing and DA communities together. For prediction applications, there is wide agreement that protocols are needed for rapid communication of ocean-observing data on numerical weather prediction (NWP) timescales. There is potential for new observation types to enhance the observing system by supporting prediction on multiple timescales, ranging from the typical timescale of NWP, covering hours to weeks, out to multiple decades. Better communication between DA and observation communities is encouraged in order to allow operational prediction centers the ability to provide guidance for the design of a sustained and adaptive observing network

I-131 Dose Response for Incident Thyroid Cancers in Ukraine Related to the Chornobyl Accident

Background: Current knowledge about Chornobyl-related thyroid cancer risks comes from ecological studies based on grouped doses, case–control studies, and studies of prevalent cancers

Effect of Hydrocortisone on Mortality and Organ Support in Patients With Severe COVID-19: The REMAP-CAP COVID-19 Corticosteroid Domain Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Evidence regarding corticosteroid use for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is limited. Objective: To determine whether hydrocortisone improves outcome for patients with severe COVID-19. Design, Setting, and Participants: An ongoing adaptive platform trial testing multiple interventions within multiple therapeutic domains, for example, antiviral agents, corticosteroids, or immunoglobulin. Between March 9 and June 17, 2020, 614 adult patients with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 were enrolled and randomized within at least 1 domain following admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) for respiratory or cardiovascular organ support at 121 sites in 8 countries. Of these, 403 were randomized to open-label interventions within the corticosteroid domain. The domain was halted after results from another trial were released. Follow-up ended August 12, 2020. Interventions: The corticosteroid domain randomized participants to a fixed 7-day course of intravenous hydrocortisone (50 mg or 100 mg every 6 hours) (n = 143), a shock-dependent course (50 mg every 6 hours when shock was clinically evident) (n = 152), or no hydrocortisone (n = 108). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point was organ support-free days (days alive and free of ICU-based respiratory or cardiovascular support) within 21 days, where patients who died were assigned -1 day. The primary analysis was a bayesian cumulative logistic model that included all patients enrolled with severe COVID-19, adjusting for age, sex, site, region, time, assignment to interventions within other domains, and domain and intervention eligibility. Superiority was defined as the posterior probability of an odds ratio greater than 1 (threshold for trial conclusion of superiority >99%). Results: After excluding 19 participants who withdrew consent, there were 384 patients (mean age, 60 years; 29% female) randomized to the fixed-dose (n = 137), shock-dependent (n = 146), and no (n = 101) hydrocortisone groups; 379 (99%) completed the study and were included in the analysis. The mean age for the 3 groups ranged between 59.5 and 60.4 years; most patients were male (range, 70.6%-71.5%); mean body mass index ranged between 29.7 and 30.9; and patients receiving mechanical ventilation ranged between 50.0% and 63.5%. For the fixed-dose, shock-dependent, and no hydrocortisone groups, respectively, the median organ support-free days were 0 (IQR, -1 to 15), 0 (IQR, -1 to 13), and 0 (-1 to 11) days (composed of 30%, 26%, and 33% mortality rates and 11.5, 9.5, and 6 median organ support-free days among survivors). The median adjusted odds ratio and bayesian probability of superiority were 1.43 (95% credible interval, 0.91-2.27) and 93% for fixed-dose hydrocortisone, respectively, and were 1.22 (95% credible interval, 0.76-1.94) and 80% for shock-dependent hydrocortisone compared with no hydrocortisone. Serious adverse events were reported in 4 (3%), 5 (3%), and 1 (1%) patients in the fixed-dose, shock-dependent, and no hydrocortisone groups, respectively. Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients with severe COVID-19, treatment with a 7-day fixed-dose course of hydrocortisone or shock-dependent dosing of hydrocortisone, compared with no hydrocortisone, resulted in 93% and 80% probabilities of superiority with regard to the odds of improvement in organ support-free days within 21 days. However, the trial was stopped early and no treatment strategy met prespecified criteria for statistical superiority, precluding definitive conclusions. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02735707

Opportunistic Multi-robot Environmental Sampling via Decentralized Markov Decision Processes

We study the problem of information sampling with a group of mobile robots from an unknown environment. Each robot is given a unique region in the environment for the sampling task. The objective of the robots is to visit a subset of locations in the environment such that the collected information is maximized, and consequently, the underlying information model matches as close to reality as possible. The robots have limited communication ranges, and therefore can only communicate when nearby one another. The robots operate in a stochastic environment and their control uncertainty is handled using factored Decentralized Markov Decision Processes (Dec-MDP). When two or more robots communicate, they share their past noisy observations and use a Gaussian mixture model to update their local information models. This in turn helps them to obtain a better Dec-MDP policy. Simulation results show that our proposed strategy is able to predict the information model closer to the ground truth version than compared to other algorithms. Furthermore, the reduction in the overall uncertainty is more than comparable algorithms

An Assay Based on SAMDI Mass Spectrometry for Profiling Protein Interaction Domains

This paper describes an assay that can profile the binding of a protein to ligands and can rank the affinities of a library of ligands. The method is based on the enhanced rate of an enzyme-mediated reaction that follows from colocalization of the enzyme and substrate by a protein–ligand interaction. This assay uses a self-assembled monolayer that presents a candidate peptide ligand for a receptor and a peptide substrate for an enzyme. The receptor is prepared as a fusion to the relevant enzyme so that binding of the receptor to the immobilized ligand brings the enzyme to the surface, where it can more rapidly modify its substrate. The extent of conversion of the substrate to product is therefore a measure of the average time the ligand–receptor complex is present and is quantified using the SAMDI mass spectrometry technique. The approach is used to profile the binding of chromodomain proteins to methylated lysine peptides derived from the histone 3 protein. The relative affinities for the peptide ligands found in this work agreed with results from prior studies. Additionally, this work revealed cross-talk interactions whereby phosphorylation of certain residues impaired binding of chromodomains to the peptide ligands. The method presented here, which we term protein interaction by SAMDI (PI-SAMDI), has the advantages that it is applicable to low-affinity interactions because the complexes are not observed directly, but rather leave a “covalent record” of the interaction that is measured with mass spectrometry and because it is compatible with laboratory automation for high-throughput analysis

Simple Mechanism for the Dimerization of Ethylene by Gas-Phase CrOH⁺

Dimerization of ethylene by gas-phase chromium hydroxide (CrOH⁺) has been experimentally observed. Recent theoretical work suggests the most likely mechanism associated with this process involves formation of a metallacycle intermediate and involves two spin-inversion processes. We propose a different mechanism that involves the formation of a chromium-aqua complex. While the energetics of this new mechanism are similar to previously proposed mechanisms, all intermediates and transition states remain on the same spin surface as both the reactants and products

A national stakeholder consensus study of challenges and priorities for clinical learning environments in postgraduate medical education

Background: High quality clinical learning environments (CLE) are critical to postgraduate medical education (PGME). The understaffed and overcrowded environments in which many residents work present a significant challenge to learning. The purpose of this study was to develop a national expert group consensus amongst stakeholders in PGME to; (i) identify important barriers and facilitators of learning in CLEs and (ii) indicate priority areas for improvement. Our objective was to provide information to focus efforts to provide high quality CLEs. Methods: Group Concept Mapping (GCM) is an integrated mixed methods approach to generating expert group consensus. A multi-disciplinary group of experts were invited to participate in the GCM process via an online platform. Multi-dimensional scaling and hierarchical cluster analysis were used to analyse participant inputs in regard to barriers, facilitators and priorities. Results: Participants identified facilitators and barriers in ten domains within clinical learning environments. Domains rated most important were those which related to residents’ connection to and engagement with more senior doctors. Organisation and conditions of work and Time to learn with senior doctors during patient care were rated as the most difficult areas in which to make improvements. Conclusions: High quality PGME requires that residents engage and connect with senior doctors during patient care, and that they are valued and supported both as learners and service providers. Academic medicine and health service managers must work together to protect these elements of CLEs, which not only shape learning, but impact quality of care and patient safety

Association Between 131I Exposure After the Chernobyl Accident and Thyroid Volume in Children in Belarus

Abstract Thyroid enlargement can cause problems with swallowing or breathing and a decrease in accuracy of screening for thyroid cancer. Exposure to radioactive iodines after the 1986 Chernobyl accident is known to increase risk of thyroid cancer in those exposed at a young age, but little is known about its effects on thyroid volume, which could have important clinical implications. The objective of this study is to characterize the dose-response association between iodine-131 (131I) exposure and thyroid volume using data from a Belarusian-American cohort study of residents of Belarus exposed during childhood. Persons exposed to Chernobyl fallout in Belarus at the age of 18 years or younger had individual 131I doses to the thyroid gland estimated from direct thyroid activity measurements, radioecological and biokinetic models, and interview data on whereabouts and dietary habits collected during baseline screening in 1996-2001 (N=11,970; median age 21 years). Thyroid volume was estimated from thyroid ultrasound measurements during screening. Individuals with diagnoses of benign or malignant tumors of thyroid gland, any thyroid surgery or aplasia, and missing thyroid volume measurements were excluded (n=1,104). Dose and thyroid volume were log-transformed due to right-skewed distributions. We used a multivariable linear regression to estimate the dose-response association between 131I dose to the thyroid and thyroid volume accounting for confounding effects of sex, age at screening, and place of residence at the time of screening, a proxy for endemic iodine deficiency. To examine nonlinear effects, we added a quadratic term for the log-transformed dose. Among 10,866 participants, dose to thyroid ranged from 0.0005 to 39 gray (Gy) (median=0.3 Gy). In a linear regression model adjusted for confounders, log thyroid volume was best described by a linear-quadratic function of log dose (p<0.001 for log dose and log dose-squared coefficients). The largest effect was observed for doses 0.3-0.6 Gy (14%), then gradually decreased. Subjects with thyroid dose of 1 Gy had an average thyroid volume 13.6% (95% CI 8- 19.2%) higher compared to those with dose 1 mGy. Thyroid volume increased with age and was significantly higher for males compared to females and for those from Minsk city and area compared to other regions (both p<0.001). The adjusted R2-value was 30%, suggesting unaccounted factors that might better explain this association. This is the first study to assess the dose-response association between exposure to 131I and thyroid volume. Although statistically significant, the observed increase in thyroid volume with dose was small. Availability of measurements of iodine deficiency and dietary habits around the time of an accident in the future studies of nuclear accidents will be essential for understanding the mechanism of association between radiation dose and thyroid volume in young people