Probabilistic forecasts of extreme heatwaves using convolutional neural networks in a regime of lack of data

Understanding extreme events and their probability is key for the study of climate change impacts, risk assessment, adaptation, and the protection of living beings. In this work we develop a methodology to build forecasting models for extreme heatwaves. These models are based on convolutional neural networks, trained on extremely long 8,000-year climate model outputs. Because the relation between extreme events is intrinsically probabilistic, we emphasise probabilistic forecast and validation. We demonstrate that deep neural networks are suitable for this purpose for long lasting 14-day heatwaves over France, up to 15 days ahead of time for fast dynamical drivers (500 hPa geopotential height fields), and also at much longer lead times for slow physical drivers (soil moisture). The method is easily implemented and versatile. We find that the deep neural network selects extreme heatwaves associated with a North-Hemisphere wavenumber-3 pattern. We find that the 2 meter temperature field does not contain any new useful statistical information for heatwave forecast, when added to the 500 hPa geopotential height and soil moisture fields. The main scientific message is that training deep neural networks for predicting extreme heatwaves occurs in a regime of drastic lack of data. We suggest that this is likely the case for most other applications to large scale atmosphere and climate phenomena. We discuss perspectives for dealing with the lack of data regime, for instance rare event simulations, and how transfer learning may play a role in this latter task.Comment: 33 pages, 12 figure

High Resolution mid-Infrared Imaging of SN 1987A

Using the Thermal-Region Camera and Spectrograph (T-ReCS) attached to the Gemini South 8m telescope, we have detected and resolved 10 micron emission at the position of the inner equatorial ring (ER) of supernova SN 1987A at day 6067. ``Hot spots'' similar to those found in the optical and near-IR are clearly present. The morphology of the 10 micron emission is globally similar to the morphology at other wavelengths from X-rays to radio. The observed mid-IR flux in the region of SN1987A is probably dominated by emission from dust in the ER. We have also detected the ER at 20 micron at a 4 sigma level. Assuming that thermal dust radiation is the origin of the mid-IR emission, we derive a dust temperature of 180^{+20}_{-10} K, and a dust mass of 1.- 8. 10^{-5} Mo for the ER. Our observations also show a weak detection of the central ejecta at 10 micron. We show that previous bolometric flux estimates (through day 2100) were not significantly contaminated by this newly discovered emission from the ER. If we assume that the energy input comes from radioactive decays only, our measurements together with the current theoretical models set a temperature of 90 leq T leq 100 K and a mass range of 10^{-4} - 2. 10^{-3} Mo for the dust in the ejecta. With such dust temperatures the estimated thermal emission is 9(+/-3) 10^{35} erg s^{-1} from the inner ring, and 1.5 (+/-0.5) 10^{36} erg s^{-1} from the ejecta. Finally, using SN 1987A as a template, we discuss the possible role of supernovae as major sources of dust in the Universe.Comment: aastex502, 14 pages, 4 figures; Accepted for publication in ApJ Content changed: new observations, Referee's comments and suggestion

The Mid-Infrared Instrument for the James Webb Space Telescope, VII: The MIRI Detectors

The MIRI Si:As IBC detector arrays extend the heritage technology from the Spitzer IRAC arrays to a 1024 x 1024 pixel format. We provide a short discussion of the principles of operation, design, and performance of the individual MIRI detectors, in support of a description of their operation in arrays provided in an accompanying paper (Ressler et al. (2015)). We then describe modeling of their response. We find that electron diffusion is an important component of their performance, although it was omitted in previous models. Our new model will let us optimize the bias voltage while avoiding avalanche gain. It also predicts the fraction of the IR-active layer that is depleted (and thus contributes to the quantum efficiency) as signal is accumulated on the array amplifier. Another set of models accurately predicts the nonlinearity of the detector-amplifier unit and has guided determination of the corrections for nonlinearity. Finally, we discuss how diffraction at the interpixel gaps and total internal reflection can produce the extended cross-like artifacts around images with these arrays at short wavelengths, ~ 5 microns. The modeling of the behavior of these devices is helping optimize how we operate them and also providing inputs to the development of the data pipeline

Chandra HRC Localization of the Low Mass X-ray Binaries X1624-490 and X1702-429: The Infrared Counterparts

We report on the precise localization of the low mass X-ray binaries X1624-490 and X1702-429 with the Chandra HRC-I. We determine the best positions to be 16:28:02.825 -49:11:54.61 (J2000) and 17:06:15.314 -43:02:08.69 (J2000) for X1624-490 and X1702-429, respectively, with the nominal Chandra positional uncertainty of 0.6". We also obtained deep IR observations of the fields of these sources in an effort to identify the IR counterparts. A single, faint (Ks=18.3 +/- 0.1) source is visible inside the Chandra error circle of X1624-490, and we propose this source as its IR counterpart. For X1702-429, a Ks=16.5 +/- 0.07 source is visible at the edge of the Chandra error circle. The brightness of both counterpart candidates is comparable to that of other low mass X-ray binary IR counterparts when corrected for extinction and distance.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figures, accepted for publication in Ap

Five Years of Mid-Infrared Evolution of the Remnant of SN 1987A: The Encounter Between the Blast Wave and the Dusty Equatorial Ring

We have used the Spitzer satellite to monitor the mid-IR evolution of SN 1987A over a 5 year period spanning the epochs between days 6000 and 8000 since the explosion. The supernova (SN) has evolved into a supernova remnant (SNR) and its radiative output is dominated by the interaction of the SN blast wave with the pre-existing equatorial ring (ER). The mid-IR spectrum is dominated by emission from ~180 K silicate dust, collisionally-heated by the hot X-ray emitting gas with a temperature and density of ~5x10^6 K and 3x10^4 cm-3, respectively. The mass of the radiating dust is ~1.2x10^(-6) Msun on day 7554, and scales linearly with IR flux. The infrared to soft-X-ray flux ratio is roughly constant with a value of 2.5. Gas-grain collisions therefore dominate the cooling of the shocked gas. The constancy of of this ratio suggests that very little grain processing or gas cooling have occurred throughout this epoch. The shape of the dust spectrum remained unchanged during the observations while the total flux increased with a time dependence of t^(0.87), t being the time since the first encounter between the blast wave and the ER. These observations are consistent with the transitioning of the blast wave from free expansion to a Sedov phase as it propagates into the main body of the ER.Comment: Accepted for publication in the ApJ, 11 pages, 11 figure

SN 1987A after 18 Years: Mid-Infrared GEMINI and SPITZER Observations of the Remnant

We present high resolution 11.7 and 18.3 micron mid-IR images of SN 1987A obtained on day 6526 since the explosion with the Thermal-Region Camera and Spectrograph (T-ReCS) attached to the Gemini South 8m telescope. The 11.7 micron flux has increased significantly since our last observations on day 6067. The images clearly show that all the emission arises from the equatorial ring (ER). Nearly contemporaneous spectra obtained on day 6184 with the MIPS at 24 micron, on day 6130 with the IRAC in 3.6- 8 micron region, and on day 6190 with the IRS in the 12-37 micron instruments on board the Spitzer Space Telescope's show that the emission consists of thermal emission from silicate dust that condensed out in the red giant wind of the progenitor star. The dust temperature is 1662(sup +18) (sub -12) K, and the emitting dust mass is (2.6(sup +2.0 (sub -1.4)) x 10 (exp -6) M(solar). Lines of [Ne II] 12.82 micron and [Ne III] 15.56 pm are clearly present in the Spitzer spectrum, as well as a weak [Si II] 3 34.8 micron line. We also detect two lines near 26 micron which we tentatively ascribe to [Fe II] 25.99 pm and [0 IV] 25.91 micron. Comparison of the mid-IR Gemini 11.7 micron image with X-ray images obtained by Chandra, UV-optical images obtained by HST, and radio synchrotron images obtained by the ATCA show generally good correlation of the images across all wavelengths. Because of the limited resolution of the mid-IR images we cannot uniquely determine the location. or heating mechanism of the dust giving rise to the emission. The dust could be collisionally heated by the X-ray emitting plasma, providing a unique diagnostic of plasma conditions. Alternatively, the dust could be radiatively heated in the dense UV-optical knots that are overrun by the advancing supernova blast wave. In either case the dust-to-gas mass ratio in the circumstellar medium around the supernova is significantly lower than that in the general interstellar medium of the LMC, suggesting either a low condensation efficiency in the wind of the progenitor star, or the efficient destruction of the dust by the SN blast wave. Overall, we are witnessing the interaction of the SN blast wave with its surrounding medium, creating an environment that is rapidly evolving at all wavelengths. Continuous multiwavelength observations of SN 1987A such as these provide unique snapshots of the very early evolution of supernova remnants

Precise Localization of the Soft Gamma Repeater SGR 1627-41 and the Anomalous X-ray Pulsar AXP 1E1841-045 with Chandra

We present precise localizations of AXP 1E1841-045 and SGR 1627-41 with Chandra. We obtained new infrared observations of SGR 1627-41 and reanalyzed archival observations of AXP 1E1841-045 in order to refine their positions and search for infrared counterparts. A faint source is detected inside the error circle of AXP 1E1841-045. In the case of SGR 1627-41, several sources are located within the error radius of the X-ray position and we discuss the likelihood of one of them being the counterpart. We compare the properties of our candidates to those of other known AXP and SGR counterparts. We find that the counterpart candidates for SGR 1627-41 and SGR 1806-20 would have to be intrinsically much brighter than AXPs to have detectable counterparts with the observational limits currently available for these sources. To confirm the reported counterpart of SGR 1806-20, we obtained new IR observations during the July 2003 burst activation of the source. No brightening of the suggested counterpart is detected, implying that the counterpart of SGR 1806-20 remains yet to be identified.Comment: 29 pages, 4 figures, accepted for publication in Ap

Infrared and X-Ray Evidence for Circumstellar Grain Destruction by the Blast Wave of Supernova 1987A

Multiwavelength observations of supernova remnant (SNR) 1987A show that its morphology and luminosity are rapidly changing at X-ray, optical, infrared, and radio wavelengths as the blast wave from the explosion expands into the circumstellar equatorial ring, produced by mass loss from the progenitor star. The observed infrared (IR) radiation arises from the interaction of dust grains that formed in mass outflow with the soft X-ray emitting plasma component of the shocked gas. Spitzer IRS spectra at 5 - 30 microns taken on day 6190 since the explosion show that the emission arises from approx. 1.1 x 10(exp -6) solar mass of silicate grains radiating at a temperature of approx. 180+/-(15-20) K. Subsequent observations on day 7137 show that the IR flux had increased by a factor of 2 while maintaining an almost identical spectral shape. The observed IR-to-X-ray flux ratio (IRX) is consistent with that of a dusty plasma with standard LMC dust abundances. This flux ratio has decreased by a factor of approx. 2 between days 6190 and 7137, providing the first direct observation of the ongoing destruction of dust in an expanding SN blast wave on dynamic time scales. Detailed models consistent with the observed dust temperature, the ionization fluence of the soft X-ray emission component, and the evolution of IRX suggest that the radiating si1icate grains are immersed in a 3.5 x 10(exp 6) K plasma with a density of (0.3 - 1) x 10(exp 4)/cu cm, and have a size distribution that is confined to a narrow range of radii between 0.02 and 0.2 microns. Smaller grains may have been evaporated by the initial UV flash from the supernova

HST-COS Observations of Hydrogen, Helium, Carbon and Nitrogen Emission from the SN 1987A Reverse Shock

We present the most sensitive ultraviolet observations of Supernova 1987A to date. Imaging spectroscopy from the Hubble Space Telescope-Cosmic Origins Spectrograph shows many narrow (dv \sim 300 km/s) emission lines from the circumstellar ring, broad (dv \sim 10 -- 20 x 10^3 km/s) emission lines from the reverse shock, and ultraviolet continuum emission. The high signal-to-noise (> 40 per resolution element) broad LyA emission is excited by soft X-ray and EUV heating of mostly neutral gas in the circumstellar ring and outer supernova debris. The ultraviolet continuum at \lambda > 1350A can be explained by HI 2-photon emission from the same region. We confirm our earlier, tentative detection of NV \lambda 1240 emission from the reverse shock and we present the first detections of broad HeII \lambda1640, CIV \lambda1550, and NIV] \lambda1486 emission lines from the reverse shock. The helium abundance in the high-velocity material is He/H = 0.14 +/- 0.06. The NV/H-alpha line ratio requires partial ion-electron equilibration (T_{e}/T_{p} \approx 0.14 - 0.35). We find that the N/C abundance ratio in the gas crossing the reverse shock is significantly higher than that in the circumstellar ring, a result that may be attributed to chemical stratification in the outer envelope of the supernova progenitor. The N/C abundance ratio may have been stratified prior to the ring expulsion, or this result may indicate continued CNO processing in the progenitor subsequent to the expulsion of the circumstellar ring.Comment: 12 pages, 8 figures. ApJ - accepte