Outbreak response forecasting for vector borne diseases:theileria orientalis (Ikeda) in NZ cattle

Dynamical models of communicable diseases have become a prominent feature of national-level epidemic response. Developments in Bayesian inference have enabled these models to provide quantitative risk predic- tions in a real-time setting, learning from spatiotemporal data as it arrives from the field. However, these models rely heavily on accurate covariate data from which to make inference. Incursions of vector borne disease present a particular challenge in this respect, as exemplified by the recent introduction of Theileria orientalis (Ikeda), an obligate tick-borne disease of cattle, into New Zealand. Whereas the location of cattle and the animal movement network between farms is well recorded, little is known about the national scale ecology of the tick vector. This talk will present a Bayesian data assimilation approach to this problem, in which vector presence is modelled as a discrete-space latent process with a continuous-time seasonality. A joint likelihood function assimilates the epidemic data and results from a national disease surveillance pro- gramme designed for a different disease. A spatiotemporally inhomogeneous Poisson process is used to model the epidemic, with an a priori independent hierarchical binomial surveillance model. This joint model is fitted to observed case detection data using a non-centered trans-dimensional MCMC algorithm, integrating over the marginal posterior of the latent vector surface, censored herd infection times, and the presence of undetected infections. Importantly, the algorithm is implemented using GPGPU technology which acceler- ates within-chain likelihood calculations to an overnight timeframe. Finally, the predictive distribution is provided as a real time disease forecast for decision support purposes

The responsibilities of the board of directors in promoting the principles of corporate governance

Includes bibliographical references.Corporate governance is an important aspect of the way in which companies do business. It regulates the conduct of those in control of the corporation. An important aspect of corporate governance is the establishment of structures and processes that enable directors to discharge their legal responsibilities. The global financial crisis raised many corporate governance issues and this led to many reviews and changes to corporate governance systems worldwide. This is the main reason for this research. This dissertation will focus on these reviews and changes in the corporate governance systems of South Africa and the United Kingdom. The recent collapses of high profile companies, for example, Enron and WorldCom in America, Parmalat in Italy and Masterbond, Saambou and Fidentia in South Africa have resulted in the actions, skill and diligence of directors to again come under strict inspection. Companies and especially directors have to realise that they do not act independently but that their actions and decisions impact on the societies and environment in which they operate. This is the main problem in this dissertation. The new Companies Act 71 of 2008 incorporates into statute for the first time issues of corporate governance. Company law sets the framework in which the company operates and the recommended practices set out in the King Report on Governance for South Africa 2009 (‘the King III Report’) and the King Code of Governance for South Africa 2009 (‘the Code’) provide guidance for directors as to how they should direct the business of the company and make decisions on behalf of the company. In this sense, the Companies Act of 2008 and the King III Report and the Code complement each other. The King III Report and the Code deal broadly with the responsibilities of the board of directors. The Report confirms that it is for the board of directors to act as the focal point and custodian of corporate governance. This dissertation is in essence an examination of the responsibilities of the board of directors to promote the principles of corporate governance and recommendations in terms of the King III Report and the Code

An Advanced, Three-Dimensional Plotting Library for Astronomy

We present a new, three-dimensional (3D) plotting library with advanced features, and support for standard and enhanced display devices. The library - S2PLOT - is written in C and can be used by C, C++ and FORTRAN programs on GNU/Linux and Apple/OSX systems. S2PLOT draws objects in a 3D (x,y,z) Cartesian space and the user interactively controls how this space is rendered at run time. With a PGPLOT inspired interface, S2PLOT provides astronomers with elegant techniques for displaying and exploring 3D data sets directly from their program code, and the potential to use stereoscopic and dome display devices. The S2PLOT architecture supports dynamic geometry and can be used to plot time-evolving data sets, such as might be produced by simulation codes. In this paper, we introduce S2PLOT to the astronomical community, describe its potential applications, and present some example uses of the library.Comment: 12 pages, 10 eps figures (higher resolution versions available from http://astronomy.swin.edu.au/s2plot/paperfigures). The S2PLOT library is available for download from http://astronomy.swin.edu.au/s2plo

Rapid diagnostic tests for typhoid and paratyphoid (enteric) fever

BACKGROUND: Differentiating both typhoid (Salmonella Typhi) and paratyphoid (Salmonella Paratyphi A) infection from other causes of fever in endemic areas is a diagnostic challenge. Although commercial point-of-care rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for enteric fever are available as alternatives to the current reference standard test of blood or bone marrow culture, or to the widely used Widal Test, their diagnostic accuracy is unclear. If accurate, they could potentially replace blood culture as the World Health Organization (WHO)-recommended main diagnostic test for enteric fever.OBJECTIVES: To assess the diagnostic accuracy of commercially available rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) and prototypes for detecting Salmonella Typhi or Paratyphi A infection in symptomatic persons living in endemic areas.SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Infectious Diseases Group Specialized Register, MEDLINE, Embase, Science Citation Index, IndMED, African Index Medicus, LILACS, ClinicalTrials.gov, and the World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) up to 4 March 2016. We manually searched WHO reports, and papers from international conferences on Salmonella infections. We also contacted test manufacturers to identify studies.SELECTION CRITERIA: We included diagnostic accuracy studies of enteric fever RDTs in patients with fever or with symptoms suggestive of enteric fever living in endemic areas. We classified the reference standard used as either Grade 1 (result from a blood culture and a bone marrow culture) or Grade 2 (result from blood culture and blood polymerase chain reaction, or from blood culture alone).DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently extracted the test result data. We used a modified QUADAS-2 extraction form to assess methodological quality. We performed a meta-analysis when there were sufficient studies for the test and heterogeneity was reasonable.MAIN RESULTS: Thirty-seven studies met the inclusion criteria and included a total of 5080 participants (range 50 to 1732). Enteric fever prevalence rates in the study populations ranged from 1% to 75% (median prevalence 24%, interquartile range (IQR) 11% to 46%). The included studies evaluated 16 different RDTs, and 16 studies compared two or more different RDTs. Only three studies used the Grade 1 reference standard, and only 11 studies recruited unselected febrile patients. Most included studies were from Asia, with five studies from sub-Saharan Africa. All of the RDTs were designed to detect S.Typhi infection only.Most studies evaluated three RDTs and their variants: TUBEX in 14 studies; Typhidot (Typhidot, Typhidot-M, and TyphiRapid-Tr02) in 22 studies; and the Test-It Typhoid immunochromatographic lateral flow assay, and its earlier prototypes (dipstick, latex agglutination) developed by the Royal Tropical Institute, Amsterdam (KIT) in nine studies. Meta-analyses showed an average sensitivity of 78% (95% confidence interval (CI) 71% to 85%) and specificity of 87% (95% CI 82% to 91%) for TUBEX; and an average sensitivity of 69% (95% CI 59% to 78%) and specificity of 90% (95% CI 78% to 93%) for all Test-It Typhoid and prototype tests (KIT). Across all forms of the Typhidot test, the average sensitivity was 84% (95% CI 73% to 91%) and specificity was 79% (95% CI 70% to 87%). When we based the analysis on the 13 studies of the Typhidot test that either reported indeterminate test results or where the test format means there are no indeterminate results, the average sensitivity was 78% (95% CI 65% to 87%) and specificity was 77% (95% CI 66% to 86%). We did not identify any difference in either sensitivity or specificity between TUBEX, Typhidot, and Test-it Typhoid tests when based on comparison to the 13 Typhidot studies where indeterminate results are either reported or not applicable. If TUBEX and Test-it Typhoid are compared to all Typhidot studies, the sensitivity of Typhidot was higher than Test-it Typhoid (15% (95% CI 2% to 28%), but other comparisons did not show a difference at the 95% level of CIs.In a hypothetical cohort of 1000 patients presenting with fever where 30% (300 patients) have enteric fever, on average Typhidot tests reporting indeterminate results or where tests do not produce indeterminate results will miss the diagnosis in 66 patients with enteric fever, TUBEX will miss 66, and Test-It Typhoid and prototype (KIT) tests will miss 93. In the 700 people without enteric fever, the number of people incorrectly diagnosed with enteric fever would be 161 with Typhidot tests, 91 with TUBEX, and 70 with Test-It Typhoid and prototype (KIT) tests. The CIs around these estimates were wide, with no difference in false positive results shown between tests.The quality of the data for each study was evaluated using a standardized checklist called QUADAS-2. Overall, the certainty of the evidence in the studies that evaluated enteric fever RDTs was low.AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: In 37 studies that evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of RDTs for enteric fever, few studies were at a low risk of bias. The three main RDT tests and variants had moderate diagnostic accuracy. There was no evidence of a difference between the average sensitivity and specificity of the three main RDT tests. More robust evaluations of alternative RDTs for enteric fever are needed.</p

Introduction: another point of view

About the book: What are the experiences of children and young people? How can we think about the challenges they face? What systems and practices can support them? How can we develop greater equality, participation and inclusion across diverse settings? This second edition of Equality, Participation and Inclusion 1: Diverse Perspectives is the first of two Readers aimed at people with an interest in issues of equality, participation and inclusion for children and young people. This first Reader focuses in particular on the diverse perspectives held by different practitioners and stakeholders. Comprising readings taken from the latest research in journal articles, newly commissioned chapters, as well as several chapters from the first edition that retain particular relevance, this fully updated second edition has broadened its focus to consider a greater diversity of perspectives. Whilst exploring how we think about the experiences of children and young people across a range of contexts it maintains a subtle, underlying emphasis upon education and the experiences of disabled people. Drawing on the writing of academics, practitioners, children and young people, and people who have experienced exclusion, this book is a rich resource for students and practitioners who are interested in thinking about how inequality and exclusion are experienced, and how they can be challenged. Much of the material reflects on lived experiences and life stories, and will be of particular interest to those working in education, health, youth and community work, youth justice and social services, as well as to families and advocates

Forecasting for outbreaks of vector-borne diseases: a data assimilation approach

In August 2012, the first case of a novel strain of /Theileria orientalis/ (Ikeda) was discovered in a dairy herd near Auckland, New Zealand. The strain was unusually pathogenic, causing haemolytic anaemia in up to 35% of animals within an infected herd. In the ensuing months, more cases were discovered in a pattern that suggested wave-like spread down New Zealand’s North Island. Theileria orientalis is a blood-borne parasite of cattle, which is transmitted by the tick vector /Haemaphysalis longicornis/. This tick was known to exist in New Zealand, but although its behaviour and life cycle were known from laboratory experiments surprisingly little was known about its country-wide distribution. Predicting the spread of /T. orientalis/ (Ikeda) for management and economic purposes was therefore complicated by not knowing which areas of the country would be conducive to transmission, if an infected cow happened to be imported via transportation. The approach to prediction presented here uses a Bayesian probability model of dynamical disease spread, in combination with a separable discrete-space, continuous-time spatial model of tick abundance. This joint model allows inference on tick abundance by combining information from independent disease screening, expert opinion, and the occurrence of theileriosis cases. A fast GPU-based implementation was used to provide timely predictions for the outbreak, with the predictive distribution used to provide evidence for policy decisions

A four-season prospective study of muscle strain reoccurrences in a professional football club

The aim of this investigation was to characterise muscle strain reinjuries and examine their impact on playing resources in a professional football club. Muscle strains and reoccurrences were prospectively diagnosed over four seasons in first-team players (n = 46). Altogether, 188 muscle strains were diagnosed with 44 (23.4%) of these classed as reinjuries, leading to an incidence of 1.32 strain reoccurrences per 1,000 hours exposure (95% Confidence Interval [CI], 0.93–1.71). The incidence of recurrent strains was higher in match-play compared with training (4.51, 95% CI, 2.30–6.72 vs 0.94, 95% CI, 0.59–1.29). Altogether, 50.0% of players sustained at least 1 reoccurrence of a muscle strain, leading to approximately 3 days lost and 0.4 matches missed per player per season. The incidence of recurrent strains was highest in centre-forwards (2.15, 95% CI, 1.06–3.24), peaked in May (3.78, 95% CI, 0.47–7.09), and mostly affected the hamstrings (38.6% of all reoccurrences). Mean layoff for nonreoccurrences and recurrences was similar: ∼7.5 days. These results provide greater insight into the extent of the problem of recurrent muscle strains in professional football

Visualisation of latent fingerprint on wild bird eggshells by alternate light sources following superglue fuming

The theft of the eggs of endangered or protected species of bird, and subsequent reduction in wildlife population, is a significant problem worldwide. Detection rates are comparatively low towards this type of crime and fingerprinting of egg shells is infrequently utilised due to the technical barrier. This paper explores a novel technique using cyanoacrylate (superglue) fuming in conjunction with fluorescent dye to visualise latent fingerprints upon avian eggshells assisted with alternate light sources. A systematic investigation of experimental parameters has also been carried out to optimise the condition for the fingerprint visualisation. This research project has successfully developed latent fingerprints upon smooth wild bird eggshells but was less successful on developing prints on more textured, porous eggshells.Published onlin