Monitoring hydropower reliability in Malawi with satellite data and machine learning

Hydro-climatic extremes can affect the reliability of electricity supply, in par-ticular in countries that depend greatly on hydropower or cooling water andhave a limited adaptive capacity. Assessments of the vulnerability of the powersector and of the impact of extreme events are thus crucial for decision-makers,and yet often they are severely constrained by data scarcity. Here, we intro-duce and validate an energy-climate-water framework linking remotely-senseddata from multiple satellite missions and instruments (TOPEX/POSEIDON.OSTM/Jason, VIIRS, MODIS, TMPA, AMSR-E) and field observations. Theplatform exploits random forests regression algorithms to mitigate data scarcityand predict river discharge variability when ungauged. The validated predic-tions are used to assess the impact of hydroclimatic extremes on hydropowerreliability and on the final use of electricity in urban areas proxied by night-time light radiance variation. We apply the framework to the case of Malawifor the periods 2000-2018 and 2012-2018 for hydrology and power, respectively.Our results highlight the significant impact of hydro-climatic variability anddry extremes on both the supply of electricity and its final use. We thus showthat a modelling framework based on open-access data from satellites, machinelearning algorithms, and regression analysis can mitigate data scarcity and im-prove the understanding of vulnerabilities. The proposed approach can supportlong-term infrastructure development monitoring and identify vulnerable pop-ulations, in particular under a changing climate

All-Solid-State Batteries Using Rationally Designed Garnet Electrolyte Frameworks

Functioning bulk-type all-solid-state batteries in a practical form factor with composite positive electrodes, using Al-substituted Li7La3Zr2O12 (LLZO) as the solid electrolyte, have been demonstrated for the first time. The devices incorporate bilayers composed of dense LLZO membranes and porous LLZO scaffolds infiltrated with LiNi0.6Mn0.2Co0.2O2 and other components as positive electrodes, combined with lithium anodes. The porous scaffolds are prepared using an easily scaled freeze-tape-casting method. The unidirectional pores of the scaffold facilitate infiltration of cathode components and shorten lithium ion diffusion path lengths, while the addition of a soft ionically conductive solid to the scaffold ensures good contact among the components

X-ray pulsations from the radio-quiet gamma-ray pulsar in CTA 1

Prompted by the Fermi LAT discovery of a radio-quiet gamma-ray pulsar inside the CTA 1 supernova remnant, we obtained a 130 ks XMM-Newton observation to assess the timing behavior of this pulsar. Exploiting both the unprecedented photon harvest and the contemporary Fermi LAT timing measurements, a 4.7 sigma single peak pulsation is detected, making PSR J0007+7303 the second example, after Geminga, of a radio-quiet gamma-ray pulsar also seen to pulsate in X-rays. Phase-resolved spectroscopy shows that the off-pulse portion of the light curve is dominated by a power-law, non-thermal spectrum, while the X-ray peak emission appears to be mainly of thermal origin, probably from a polar cap heated by magnetospheric return currents, pointing to a hot spot varying throughout the pulsar rotation.Comment: 19 pages, 4 figures. Accepted for publication in ApJ Letter

Absorption line series and autoionization resonance structure analysis in the ultraviolet spectrum of Sr I

Photoelectric spectrometer to measure absorption line series and autoionization resonance in ultraviolet spectrum of strontium vapo

Bayesian analysis of Friedmannless cosmologies

Assuming only a homogeneous and isotropic universe and using both the 'Gold' Supernova Type Ia sample of Riess et al. and the results from the Supernova Legacy Survey, we calculate the Bayesian evidence of a range of different parameterizations of the deceleration parameter. We consider both spatially flat and curved models. Our results show that although there is strong evidence in the data for an accelerating universe, there is little evidence that the deceleration parameter varies with redshift.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figure

Conditional Mass Functions and Merger Rates of Dark Matter Halos in the Ellipsoidal Collapse Model

Analytic models based on spherical and ellipsoidal gravitational collapse have been used to derive the mass functions of dark matter halos and their progenitors (the conditional mass function). The ellipsoidal model generally provides a better match to simulation results, but there has been no simple analytic expression in this model for the conditional mass function that is accurate for small time steps, a limit that is important for generating halo merger trees and computing halo merger rates. We remedy the situation by deriving accurate analytic formulae for the first-crossing distribution, the conditional mass function, and the halo merger rate in the ellipsoidal collapse model in the limit of small look-back times. We show that our formulae provide a closer match to the Millennium simulation results than those in the spherical collapse model and the ellipsoidal model of Sheth & Tormen (2002).Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures, accepted by MNRAS letter

Testing for double inflation with WMAP

With the WMAP data we can now begin to test realistic models of inflation involving multiple scalar fields. These naturally lead to correlated adiabatic and isocurvature (entropy) perturbations with a running spectral index. We present the first full (9 parameter) likelihood analysis of double inflation with WMAP data and find that despite the extra freedom, supersymmetric hybrid potentials are strongly constrained with less than 7% correlated isocurvature component allowed when standard priors are imposed on the cosomological parameters. As a result we also find that Akaike & Bayesian model selection criteria rather strongly prefer single-field inflation, just as equivalent analysis prefers a cosmological constant over dynamical dark energy in the late universe. It appears that simplicity is the best guide to our universe.Comment: 7 pages, 6 figure

Cannabidiol modulates mitochondrial redox and dynamics in MCF7 cancer cells: a study using fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy of NAD(P)H

The cannabinoid, cannabidiol (CBD), is part of the plant's natural defence system that when given to animals has many useful medicinal properties, including activity against cancer cells, modulation of the immune system, and efficacy in epilepsy. Although there is no consensus on its precise mode of action as it affects many cellular targets, CBD does appear to influence mitochondrial function. This would suggest that there is a cross-kingdom ability to modulate stress resistance systems that enhance homeostasis. As NAD(P)H autofluorescence can be used as both a metabolic sensor and mitochondrial imaging modality, we assessed the potential of this technique to study the in vitro effects of CBD using 2-photon excitation and fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy (2P-FLIM) of NAD(P)H against more traditional markers of mitochondrial morphology and cellular stress in MCF7 breast cancer cells. 2P-FLIM analysis revealed that the addition of CBD induced a dose-dependent decrease in bound NAD(P)H, with 20 µM treatments significantly decreasing the contribution of bound NAD(P)H by 14.6% relative to control (p<0.001). CBD also increased mitochondrial concentrations of reactive oxygen species (ROS) (160 ± 53 vs. 97.6 ± 4.8%, 20 µM CBD vs. control, respectively, p<0.001) and Ca2+ (187 ± 78 vs. 105 ± 10%, 20 µM CBD vs. control, respectively, p<0.001); this was associated with significantly decreased mitochondrial branch length and increased fission. These are all suggestive of mitochondrial stress. Our results support the use of NAD(P)H autofluorescence as an investigative tool and provide further evidence that CBD can modulate mitochondrial function and morphology in a dose dependent manner, with clear evidence of it inducing oxidative stress at higher concentrations. This continues to support emerging data in the literature and may provide further insight into its overall mode of action, not only in cancer, but potentially its function in the plant and why it can act as a medicine

Quantifying uncertainty in acoustic measurements of tidal flows using a ‘Virtual’ Doppler Current Profiler

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via the DOI in this record.Accurate characterisation of flows at tidal sites can enable the developers of tidal stream energy projects to design and model the loads on, and the performance of, tidal energy converters. Acoustic Doppler technology is versatile in the measurement of sea conditions; however, this technology can be limited in its effectiveness at measuring the small-scale kinematic fluctuations caused by waves and turbulence. A Virtual Doppler Current Profiler (VDCP) is used to sample a simulated tidal flow to understand the limitations of this type of measurement instrument whilst recording the small timescale kinematics of waves and turbulence in tidal currents. Results demonstrate the phase dependency of velocity measurements averaged between two acoustic beams and provide a theoretical error for wave and turbulence characteristics sampled under a range of conditions. Spectral moments of the subsurface longitudinal wave orbital velocities recorded by the VDCP can be between 0.1 and 9 times those measured at a point for certain turbulent current conditions, turbulence intensity measurements may vary between 0.2 and 1.5 times the inputted value in low wave conditions and turbulence length scale calculation can also vary hugely dependent on both current and wave conditions. The continuation of this work will enable effective comparison of a linear model for tidal flow kinematics against field measurements from UK tidal site data, and subsequently validate numerical models for the testing of tidal turbines.This work was supported by the Industrial Centre for Offshore Renewable Energy (IDCORE) with funding from the Energy Technologies Institute and the Research Councils Energy Programme [grant number EP/J500847/1] and DNV GL

Clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of pegvisomant for the treatment of acromegaly: a systematic review and economic evaluation

Background: Acromegaly, an orphan disease usually caused by a benign pituitary tumour, is characterised by hyper-secretion of growth hormone (GH) and insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-1). It is associated with reduced life expectancy, cardiovascular problems, a variety of insidiously progressing detrimental symptoms and metabolic malfunction. Treatments include surgery, radiotherapy and pharmacotherapy. Pegvisomant (PEG) is a genetically engineered GH analogue licensed as a third or fourth line option when other treatments have failed to normalise IGF-1 levels. Methods: Evidence about effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of PEG was systematically reviewed. Data were extracted from published studies and used for a narrative synthesis of evidence. A decision analytical economic model was identified and modified to assess the cost-effectiveness of PEG. Results: One RCT and 17 non-randomised studies were reviewed for effectiveness. PEG substantially reduced and rapidly normalised IGF-1 levels in the majority of patients, approximately doubled GH levels, and improved some of the signs and symptoms of the disease. Tumour size was unaffected at least in the short term. PEG had a generally safe adverse event profile but a few patients were withdrawn from treatment because of raised liver enzymes. An economic model was identified and adapted to estimate the lower limit for the cost-effectiveness of PEG treatment versus standard care. Over a 20 year time horizon the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was pound81,000/QALY and pound212,000/LYG. To reduce this to pound30K/QALY would require a reduction in drug cost by about one third. Conclusion: PEG is highly effective for improving patients' IGF-1 level. Signs and symptoms of disease improve but evidence is lacking about long term effects on improved signs and symptoms of disease, quality of life, patient compliance and safety. Economic evaluation indicated that if current standards (UK) for determining cost-effectiveness of therapies were to be applied to PEG it would be considered not to represent good value for money