Sharp adaptive estimation of the drift function for ergodic diffusions

The global estimation problem of the drift function is considered for a large class of ergodic diffusion processes. The unknown drift $S(\cdot)$ is supposed to belong to a nonparametric class of smooth functions of order $k\geq1$, but the value of $k$ is not known to the statistician. A fully data-driven procedure of estimating the drift function is proposed, using the estimated risk minimization method. The sharp adaptivity of this procedure is proven up to an optimal constant, when the quality of the estimation is measured by the integrated squared error weighted by the square of the invariant density.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/009053605000000615 in the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Constraints on Light Dark Matter From Core-Collapse Supernovae

We show that light ($\simeq$ 1 -- 30 MeV) dark matter particles can play a significant role in core-collapse supernovae, if they have relatively large annihilation and scattering cross sections, as compared to neutrinos. We find that if such particles are lighter than $\simeq$ 10 MeV and reproduce the observed dark matter relic density, supernovae would cool on a much longer time scale and would emit neutrinos with significantly smaller energies than in the standard scenario, in disagreement with observations. This constraint may be avoided, however, in certain situations for which the neutrino--dark matter scattering cross sections remain comparatively small.Comment: 4 pages, 1 figur

Short-time asymptotics for marginal distributions of semimartingales

We study the short-time asymptotics of conditional expectations of smooth and non-smooth functions of a (discontinuous) Ito semimartingale; we compute the leading term in the asymptotics in terms of the local characteristics of the semimartingale. We derive in particular the asymptotic behavior of call options with short maturity in a semimartingale model: whereas the behavior of \textit{out-of-the-money} options is found to be linear in time, the short time asymptotics of \textit{at-the-money} options is shown to depend on the fine structure of the semimartingale

Stein's method and exact Berry--Esseen asymptotics for functionals of Gaussian fields

We show how to detect optimal Berry--Esseen bounds in the normal approximation of functionals of Gaussian fields. Our techniques are based on a combination of Malliavin calculus, Stein's method and the method of moments and cumulants, and provide de facto local (one-term) Edgeworth expansions. The findings of the present paper represent a further refinement of the main results proven in Nourdin and Peccati [Probab. Theory Related Fields 145 (2009) 75--118]. Among several examples, we discuss three crucial applications: (i) to Toeplitz quadratic functionals of continuous-time stationary processes (extending results by Ginovyan [Probab. Theory Related Fields 100 (1994) 395--406] and Ginovyan and Sahakyan [Probab. Theory Related Fields 138 (2007) 551--579]); (ii) to ``exploding'' quadratic functionals of a Brownian sheet; and (iii) to a continuous-time version of the Breuer--Major CLT for functionals of a fractional Brownian motion.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-AOP461 the Annals of Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aop/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

How to make Dupire's local volatility work with jumps

There are several (mathematical) reasons why Dupire's formula fails in the non-diffusion setting. And yet, in practice, ad-hoc preconditioning of the option data works reasonably well. In this note we attempt to explain why. In particular, we propose a regularization procedure of the option data so that Dupire's local vol diffusion process recreates the correct option prices, even in manifest presence of jumps

Vanishing cycles and mutation

This is the writeup of a talk given at the European Congress of Mathematics, Barcelona. It considers Picard-Lefschetz theory from the Floer cohomology viewpoint.Comment: 20 pages, LaTeX2e. TeXnical problem should now be fixed, so that the images will appear even if you download the .ps fil