Stochastic semi-continuous simulation for extreme flood estimation in catchments with combined rainfall–snowmelt flood regimes

Simulation methods for extreme flood estimation represent an important complement to statistical flood frequency analysis because a spectrum of catchment conditions potentially leading to extreme flows can be assessed. In this paper, stochastic, semi-continuous simulation is used to estimate extreme floods in three catchments located in Norway, all of which are characterised by flood regimes in which snowmelt often has a significant role. The simulations are based on SCHADEX, which couples a precipitation probabilistic model with a hydrological simulation such that an exhaustive set of catchment conditions and responses is simulated. The precipitation probabilistic model is conditioned by regional weather patterns, and a bottom–up classification procedure was used to define a set of weather patterns producing extreme precipitation in Norway. SCHADEX estimates for the 1000-year (Q1000) discharge are compared with those of several standard methods, including event-based and long-term simulations which use a single extreme precipitation sequence as input to a hydrological model, statistical flood frequency analysis based on the annual maximum series, and the GRADEX method. The comparison suggests that the combination of a precipitation probabilistic model with a long-term simulation of catchment conditions, including snowmelt, produces estimates for given return periods which are more in line with those based on statistical flood frequency analysis, as compared with the standard simulation methods, in two of the catchments. In the third case, the SCHADEX method gives higher estimates than statistical flood frequency analysis and further suggests that the seasonality of the most likely Q1000 events differs from that of the annual maximum flows. The semi-continuous stochastic simulation method highlights the importance of considering the joint probability of extreme precipitation, snowmelt rates and catchment saturation states when assigning return periods to floods estimated by precipitation-runoff methods. The SCHADEX methodology, as applied here, is dependent on observed discharge data for calibration of a hydrological model, and further study to extend its application to ungauged catchments would significantly enhance its versatility

The structure of casein in heated suspensions affects the acid gelification of milk

The structure of casein in heated suspensions affects the acid gelification of milk. FIL-IDF "Fermented milk

A New Scenario on the Metal-Insulator Transition in VO2

The metal-insulator transition in VO2 was investigated using the three-band Hubbard model, in which the degeneracy of the 3d orbitals, the on-site Coulomb and exchange interactions, and the effects of lattice distortion were considered. A new scenario on the phase transition is proposed, where the increase in energy level separation among the t_2g orbitals caused by the lattice distortion triggers an abrupt change in the electronic configuration in doubly occupied sites from an S=1 Hund's coupling state to a spin S=0 state with much larger energy, and this strongly suppresses the charge fluctuation. Although the material is expected to be a Mott-Hubbard insulator in the insulating phase, the metal-to-insulator transition is not caused by an increase in relative strength of the Coulomb interaction against the electron hopping as in the usual Mott transition, but by the level splitting among the t_2g orbitals against the on-site exchange interaction. The metal-insulator transition in Ti2O3 can also be explained by the same scenario. Such a large change in the 3d orbital occupation at the phase transition can be detected by linear dichroic V 2p x-ray absorption measurements.Comment: 5 pages, 5 figures, to be published in J. Phys. Soc. Jpn. Vol. 72 No. 1

Towards supplier maturity evaluation in terms of PLM collaboration

The product lifecycle management (PLM) system has a significant role to support the collaboration and manage the partnership between OEM and Supplier to enable the success of supplier integration. Today great rates of co- operation as suppliers have been dedicated to SMEs. Since one of the PLM task is to control the collaboration between OEM and suppliers, this paper provide supplier (SMEs) a framework to find their place in this relationship in the concept of PLM. To respond to this trend, we defined a methodology based on collaborative matrix maturity levels and four PLM axes of strategic, organization, process and tools levels. Finally according to this ma- trix, we proposed a structure of a proper questionnaire and example that show suppliers how to evaluate their positions in terms of collaboration in PLM

Migrant Semipalmated Sandpipers (Calidris pusilla) Have Over Four Decades Steadily Shifted Towards Safer Stopover Locations

Peregrine falcons (Falco peregrinus) have undergone a steady hemisphere-wide recovery since the ban on DDT in 1973, resulting in an ongoing increase in the level of danger posed for migrant birds, such as Arctic-breeding sandpipers. We anticipate that in response migrant semipalmated sandpipers (Calidris pusilla) have adjusted migratory behavior, including a shift in stopover site usage toward locations offering greater safety from falcon predation. We assessed semipalmated sandpiper stopover usage within the Atlantic Canada Shorebird Survey dataset. Based on 3,030 surveys (totalling ~32M birds) made during southward migration, 1974–2017, at 198 stopover locations, we assessed the spatial distribution of site usage in each year (with a “priority matching distribution” index, PMD) in relation to the size (intertidal area) and safety (proportion of a site\u27s intertidal area further than 150 m of the shoreline) of each location. The PMD index value is >1 when usage is concentrated at dangerous locations, 1.0 when usage matches location size, and <1 when usage is concentrated at safer locations. A large majority of migrants were found at the safest sites in all years, however our analysis of the PMD demonstrated that the fraction using safer sites increased over time. In 1974, 80% of birds were found at the safest 20% of the sites, while in 2017, this had increased to 97%. A sensitivity analysis shows that the shift was made specifically toward safer (and not just larger) sites. The shift as measured by a PMD index decline cannot be accounted for by possible biases inherent in the data set. We conclude that the data support the prediction that increasing predator danger has induced a shift by southbound migrant semipalmated sandpipers to safer sites

Theory of the Half-Polarized Quantum Hall States

We report a theoretical analysis of the half-polarized quantum Hall states observed in a recent experiment. Our numerical results indicate that the ground state energy of the quantum Hall $\nu= 2/3$ and $\nu= 2/5$ states versus spin polarization has a downward cusp at half the maximal spin polarization. We map the two-component fermion system onto a system of excitons and describe the ground state as a liquid state of excitons with non-zero values of exciton angular momentum.Comment: 4 pages (RevTeX), 3 figures (PostScript), added reference

Ecology of Conflict: Marine Food Supply Affects Human-Wildlife Interactions on Land

Human-wildlife conflicts impose considerable costs to people and wildlife worldwide. Most research focuses on proximate causes, offering limited generalizable understanding of ultimate drivers. We tested three competing hypotheses (problem individuals, regional population saturation, limited food supply) that relate to underlying processes of human-grizzly bear (Ursus arctos horribilis) conflict, using data from British Columbia, Canada, between 1960–2014. We found most support for the limited food supply hypothesis: in bear populations that feed on spawning salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), the annual number of bears/km2killed due to conflicts with humans increased by an average of 20% (6–32% [95% CI]) for each 50% decrease in annual salmon biomass. Furthermore, we found that across all bear populations (with or without access to salmon), 81% of attacks on humans and 82% of conflict kills occurred after the approximate onset of hyperphagia (July 1st), a period of intense caloric demand. Contrary to practices by many management agencies, conflict frequency was not reduced by hunting or removal of problem individuals. Our finding that a marine resource affects terrestrial conflict suggests that evidence-based policy for reducing harm to wildlife and humans requires not only insight into ultimate drivers of conflict, but also management that spans ecosystem and jurisdictional boundaries

Long-lived charged multiple-exciton complexes in strong magnetic fields

We consider the charged exciton complexes of an ideal two-dimensional electron-hole system in the limit of strong magnetic fields. A series of charged multiple-exciton states is identified and variational and finite-size exact diagonalization calculations are used to estimate their binding energies. We find that, because of a hidden symmetry, bound states of excitons and an additional electron cannot be created by direct optical absorption and, once created, have an infinite optical recombination lifetime. We also estimate the optical recombination rates when electron and hole layers are displaced and the hidden symmetry is violated.Comment: 12 pages + 2 PostScript figures, Revtex, Submitted to Phys. Rev. Let

Microscopic Functional Integral Theory of Quantum Fluctuations in Double-Layer Quantum Hall Ferromagnets

We present a microscopic theory of zero-temperature order parameter and pseudospin stiffness reduction due to quantum fluctuations in the ground state of double-layer quantum Hall ferromagnets. Collective excitations in this systems are properly described only when interactions in both direct and exchange particle-hole channels are included. We employ a functional integral approach which is able to account for both, and comment on its relation to diagrammatic perturbation theory. We also discuss its relation to Gaussian fluctuation approximations based on Hubbard-Stratonovich-transformation representations of interactions in ferromagnets and superconductors. We derive remarkably simple analytical expressions for the correlation energy, renormalized order parameter and renormalized pseudospin stiffness.Comment: 15 pages, 5 figure