Mathematical modelling of angiogenesis and vascular adaptation

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Modelling the Health and Economic Impacts of Population-Wide Testing, Contact Tracing and Isolation (PTTI) Strategies for COVID-19 in the UK

Background: The COVID-19 epidemic in the UK has resulted in over 280,000 reported cases and over 40,000 deaths as of 5th June 2020. In the context of a slower increase in reported cases and deaths associated with COVID-19 over the last few weeks compared to earlier in the epidemic, the UK is starting to relax the physical restrictions (‘lockdown’) that have been imposed since 23 March 2020. This has been accompanied by the announcement of a strategy to test people for infection, trace contacts of those tested positive, and isolate positive diagnoses. While such policies are expected to be impactful, there is no conclusive evidence of which approach to this is likely to achieve the most appropriate balance between benefits and costs. This study combines mathematical and economic modelling to estimate the impact, costs, feasibility, and health and economic effects of different strategies. / Methods: We provide detailed description, impact, costing, and feasibility assessment of population-scale testing, tracing, and isolation strategies (PTTI). We estimate the impact of different PTTI strategies with a deterministic mathematical model for SARS-CoV-2 transmission that accurately captures tracing and isolation of contacts of individuals exposed, infectious, and diagnosed with the virus. We combine this with an economic model to project the mortality, intensive care, hospital, and non-hospital case outcomes, costs to the UK National Health Service, reduction in GDP, and intervention costs of each strategy. Model parameters are derived from publicly available data, and the model is calibrated to reported deaths associated with COVID-19. We modelled 31 scenarios in total (Panel 2). The first 18 comprised nine with ‘triggers’ (labelled with the -Trig suffix) for subsequent lockdown periods (>40,000 new infections per day) and lockdown releases (<10,000 new infections per day), and nine corresponding scenarios without triggers, namely: no large-scale PTTI (scenario 1); scale-up of PTTI to testing the whole population every week, with May–July 2020 lockdown release (scenario 2b), or delayed lockdown release until scale-up complete on 31 August 2020 (scenario 2a); these two scenarios with mandatory use of face coverings (scenarios 3a and 3b); and scenarios 2a, 2b, 3a, 3b replacing untargeted PTTI with testing of symptomatic people only (scenarios 4a, 4b, 4c, 4d). The final 13 scenarios looked at: whole population weekly testing to suppress the epidemic with lower tracing success (scenarios 3b-Trig00, 3b-Trig10, 3b-Trig20, 3b-Trig30) and switched to targeted testing after two months when it may suppress the epidemic (scenarios 3b-Trig00-2mo and 3b-Trig30-2mo), and targeted testing with lower tracing success (scenarios 4d-Trig10, 4dTrig20, 4d-Trig30, 4d-Trig40, 4d-Trig50, 4d-Trig60, 4d-Trig70). / Findings: Given that physical distancing measures have already been relaxed in the UK, scenario 4d-Trig (targeted testing of symptomatic people only, with a mandatory face coverings policy and subsequent lockdown triggered to enable PTTI to suppress the epidemic), is a strategy that will result in the fewest deaths (~52,000) and has the lowest intervention costs (~£8bn). The additional lockdown results in total reduction in GDP of ~£503bn, less than half the cost to the economy of subsequent lockdowns triggered in a scenario without PTTI (scenario 1-Trig, ~£1180bn reduction in GDP, ~105,000 deaths). In summer months, with lower cold and flu prevalence, approximately 75,000 symptomatic people per day need to be tested for this strategy to work, assuming 64% of their contacts are effectively traced (~80% traced with 80% success) within the infectious period (most within the first two days and nearly all by seven days) and all are isolated – including those without any symptoms – for 14 days. Untargeted testing of everyone every week, if it were feasible, may work without tracing, but at a higher cost (scenario 3b-Trig00). This cost could be reduced by switching to targeted testing after the epidemic is suppressed (scenario 3b-Trig30-2mo), though we note the epidemic could be suppressed with targeted testing itself providing tracing and isolation has at least a 32% success rate (scenario 4dTrig40). / Interpretation: PTTI strategies to suppress the COVID-19 epidemic within the context of a relaxation of lockdown will necessitate subsequent lockdowns to keep the epidemic suppressed during PTTI scale-up. Targeted testing of symptomatic people only can suppress the epidemic if accompanied by mandated use of face coverings. The feasibility of PTTI depends on sufficient capacity, capabilities, infrastructure and integrated systems to deliver it. The political and public acceptability of alternative scenarios for subsequent lockdowns needs to take account of crucial implications for employment, personal and national debt, education, population mental health and non-COVID-19 disease. Our model is able to incorporate additional scenarios as the situation evolves

Machine learning assisted DSC-MRI radiomics as a tool for glioma classification by grade and mutation status

Background: Combining MRI techniques with machine learning methodology is rapidly gaining attention as a promising method for staging of brain gliomas. This study assesses the diagnostic value of such a framework applied to dynamic susceptibility contrast (DSC)-MRI in classifying treatment-naïve gliomas from a multi-center patients into WHO grades II-IV and across their isocitrate dehydrogenase (IDH) mutation status. Methods: Three hundred thirty-three patients from 6 tertiary centres, diagnosed histologically and molecularly with primary gliomas (IDH-mutant = 151 or IDH-wildtype = 182) were retrospectively identified. Raw DSC-MRI data was post-processed for normalised leakage-corrected relative cerebral blood volume (rCBV) maps. Shape, intensity distribution (histogram) and rotational invariant Haralick texture features over the tumour mask were extracted. Differences in extracted features across glioma grades and mutation status were tested using the Wilcoxon two-sample test. A random-forest algorithm was employed (2-fold cross-validation, 250 repeats) to predict grades or mutation status using the extracted features. Results: Shape, distribution and texture features showed significant differences across mutation status. WHO grade II-III differentiation was mostly driven by shape features while texture and intensity feature were more relevant for the III-IV separation. Increased number of features became significant when differentiating grades further apart from one another. Gliomas were correctly stratified by mutation status in 71% and by grade in 53% of the cases (87% of the gliomas grades predicted with distance less than 1). Conclusions: Despite large heterogeneity in the multi-center dataset, machine learning assisted DSC-MRI radiomics hold potential to address the inherent variability and presents a promising approach for non-invasive glioma molecular subtyping and grading

Monocyte-driven atypical cytokine storm and aberrant neutrophil activation as key mediators of COVID-19 disease severity.

Epidemiological and clinical reports indicate that SARS-CoV-2 virulence hinges upon the triggering of an aberrant host immune response, more so than on direct virus-induced cellular damage. To elucidate the immunopathology underlying COVID-19 severity, we perform cytokine and multiplex immune profiling in COVID-19 patients. We show that hypercytokinemia in COVID-19 differs from the interferon-gamma-driven cytokine storm in macrophage activation syndrome, and is more pronounced in critical versus mild-moderate COVID-19. Systems modelling of cytokine levels paired with deep-immune profiling shows that classical monocytes drive this hyper-inflammatory phenotype and that a reduction in T-lymphocytes correlates with disease severity, with CD8+ cells being disproportionately affected. Antigen presenting machinery expression is also reduced in critical disease. Furthermore, we report that neutrophils contribute to disease severity and local tissue damage by amplification of hypercytokinemia and the formation of neutrophil extracellular traps. Together our findings suggest a myeloid-driven immunopathology, in which hyperactivated neutrophils and an ineffective adaptive immune system act as mediators of COVID-19 disease severity

Body dysmorphia in common skin diseases: Results of an observational, cross-sectional multi-centre study among dermatological out-patients in 17 European countries

Background: Body dysmorphic disorder (BDD) is a common psychiatric disorder associated with high costs for healthcare systems as patients may repeatedly ask for different, often not effective interventions. BDD symptoms are more prevalent in patients with dermatological conditions than the general population, but there are no large sample studies comparing the prevalence of BDD symptoms between patients with dermatological conditions and healthy skin controls. Objectives: To compare the prevalence of BDD symptoms between patients with different dermatological conditions and healthy skin controls and to describe sociodemographic, physical and psychological factors associated with BDD symptoms to identify patients who may have a particularly high chance of having this condition. Methods: This observational cross-sectional, comparative multi-centre study included 8295 participants: 5487 consecutive patients with different skin diseases (56% female) recruited among dermatological out-patients at 22 clinics in 17 European countries and 2808 healthy skin controls (66% female). All patients were examined by a dermatologist. BDD symptoms were assessed by the Dysmorphic Concern Questionnaire (DCQ). Sociodemographic data, information on psychological factors and physical conditions were collected. Each patient was given a dermatological diagnosis according to ICD-10 by a dermatologist. Results: The participation rate of invited dermatological patients was 82.4% on average across all centres. BDD symptoms were five times more prevalent in patients with dermatological conditions than in healthy skin controls (10.5% vs. 2.1%). Patients with hyperhidrosis, alopecia and vitiligo had a more than eleven-fold increased chance (adjusted Odds Ratio (OR) > 11) of having BDD symptoms compared to healthy skin controls, and patients with atopic dermatitis, psoriasis, acne, hidradenitis suppurativa, prurigo and bullous diseases had a more than six-fold increased chance (adjusted OR > 6) of having BDD symptoms. Using a logistic regression model, BDD symptoms were significantly related to lower age, female sex, higher psychological stress and feelings of stigmatisation. Conclusions: This study reveals that clinical BDD symptoms are significantly associated with common dermatological diseases. As such symptoms are associated with higher levels of psychological distress and multiple unhelpful consultations, general practitioners and dermatologists should consider BDD and refer patients when identified to an appropriate service for BDD screening and managementpublishedVersio

Body dysmorphia in common skin diseases: results of an observational, cross-sectional multicentre study among dermatological outpatients in 17 European countries*

Background: Body dysmorphic disorder (BDD) is a common psychiatric disorder associated with high costs for healthcare systems as patients may repeatedly ask for different, often not effective, interventions. BDD symptoms are more prevalent in patients with dermatological conditions than in the general population, but there are no large sample studies comparing the prevalence of BDD symptoms between patients with dermatological conditions and healthy skin controls. Objectives: To compare the prevalence of BDD symptoms between patients with different dermatological conditions and healthy skin controls and to describe sociodemographic, physical and psychological factors associated with BDD symptoms to identify patients who may have a particularly high chance of having this condition. Methods: This observational, cross-sectional, comparative multicentre study included 8295 participants: 5487 consecutive patients with different skin diseases (56% female) recruited among dermatological outpatients at 22 clinics in 17 European countries, and 2808 healthy skin controls (66% female). BDD symptoms were assessed by the Dysmorphic Concern Questionnaire. Sociodemographic data and information on psychological factors and physical conditions were collected. Each patient was given a dermatological diagnosis according to ICD-10 by a dermatologist. The study was registered with number DRKS00012745. Results: The average participation rate of invited dermatological patients was 82.4% across all centres. BDD symptoms were five times more prevalent in patients with dermatological conditions than in healthy skin controls (10.5% vs. 2.1%). Patients with hyperhidrosis, alopecia and vitiligo had a more than 11-fold increased chance (adjusted Odds Ratio (OR) > 11) of having BDD symptoms compared with healthy skin controls, and patients with atopic dermatitis, psoriasis, acne, hidradenitis suppurativa, prurigo and bullous diseases had a more than sixfold increased chance (adjusted OR > 6) of having BDD symptoms. Using a logistic regression model, BDD symptoms were significantly related to lower age, female sex, higher psychological stress and feelings of stigmatization. Conclusions: Clinical BDD symptoms are significantly associated with common dermatological diseases. As such symptoms are associated with higher levels of psychological distress and multiple unhelpful consultations, general practitioners and dermatologists should consider BDD and refer patients when identified to an appropriate service for BDD screening and management. © 2022 The Authors. British Journal of Dermatology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Association of Dermatologists

Sadržaj toksičnih i esencijalnih metala u ljekovitom bilju koje raste u onečišćenim i neonečišćenim područjima u Makedoniji

The aim of this study was to determine and compare Ba, Cr, Cd, Fe, Sr, Pb, and Zn content in medicinal herbs Urtica dioica L., Taraxacum officinale, and Matricaria recutita growing in polluted and unpolluted areas of the Republic of Macedonia. The metal content was determined using inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectroscopy (ICP-AES). In the unpolluted area of Mt. Plačkovica the metal content in Taraxacum officinale was in the descending order: Fe>Sr>Zn>Ba>Cr, while Pb and Cd were below the limit of detection. In the polluted area of Veles, the order was as follows: Fe>Zn>Sr>Pb>Ba>Cd>Cr. Our results suggest that quality assurance and monitoring of toxic metals is needed for plants intended for human use and consumption. Medicinal plants should be picked in areas free of any contamination sources.Cilj je ovoga istraživanja bio utvrditi i usporediti sadržaj Ba, Cr, Cd, Fe, Sr, Pb i Zn u ljekovitom bilju Urtica dioica L., Taraxacum offi cinale i Matricaria recutita koje raste u onečišćenome odnosno neonečišćenome području u Republici Makedoniji. Sadržaj metala utvrdili smo s pomoću atomske emisijske spektroskopije induktivno spregnutom plazmom (engl. inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectroscopy, krat. ICP-AES). U neonečišćenome području planine Plačkovice, sadržaj metala u Taraxacum offi cinale kretao se kako slijedi: Fe>Sr>Zn>Ba>Cr, dok su Pb i Cd bili ispod granice detekcije. U onečišćenome području blizu talionice olova i cinka u Velesu redoslijed je bio ovakav: Fe>Zn>Sr>Pb>Ba>Cd>Cr. Naši rezultati upućuju na potrebu za osiguranjem kakvoće i praćenjem razina toksičnih metala u biljaka namijenjenih ljudskoj uporabi. Ljekovito bilje valja brati u područjima bez izvora onečišćenja

A Three Species Model to Simulate Application of Hyperbaric Oxygen Therapy to Chronic Wounds

Chronic wounds are a significant socioeconomic problem for governments worldwide. Approximately 15% of people who suffer from diabetes will experience a lower-limb ulcer at some stage of their lives, and 24% of these wounds will ultimately result in amputation of the lower limb. Hyperbaric Oxygen Therapy (HBOT) has been shown to aid the healing of chronic wounds; however, the causal reasons for the improved healing remain unclear and hence current HBOT protocols remain empirical. Here we develop a three-species mathematical model of wound healing that is used to simulate the application of hyperbaric oxygen therapy in the treatment of wounds. Based on our modelling, we predict that intermittent HBOT will assist chronic wound healing while normobaric oxygen is ineffective in treating such wounds. Furthermore, treatment should continue until healing is complete, and HBOT will not stimulate healing under all circumstances, leading us to conclude that finding the right protocol for an individual patient is crucial if HBOT is to be effective. We provide constraints that depend on the model parameters for the range of HBOT protocols that will stimulate healing. More specifically, we predict that patients with a poor arterial supply of oxygen, high consumption of oxygen by the wound tissue, chronically hypoxic wounds, and/or a dysfunctional endothelial cell response to oxygen are at risk of nonresponsiveness to HBOT. The work of this paper can, in some way, highlight which patients are most likely to respond well to HBOT (for example, those with a good arterial supply), and thus has the potential to assist in improving both the success rate and hence the cost-effectiveness of this therapy

Dermatological patients with itch report more stress, stigmatization experience, anxiety and depression compared to patients without itch: Results from a European multi‐centre study

Background: Itch as the most common symptom in dermatology has been shown to be related to psychological factors such as stress, anxiety and depression. Moreover, associations were found between perceived stigmatization and itch. However, studies investigating the differences between patients with dermatoses with and without itch regarding perceived stress, stigmatization, anxiety and depression are missing. Therefore, one of the aims of the second study of the European Society for Dermatology and Psychiatry (ESDaP study II) was to investigate these relationships in a large cohort of patients with different itchy dermatoses. Results: 3399 patients with 14 different itchy dermatoses were recruited at 22 centres in 17 European countries. They filled in questionnaires to assess perceived stigmatization, stress, signs of clinically relevant anxiety or depression, itch‐related quality of life, the overall health status, itch duration, frequency and intensity. The most significant association between the severity of itching and the perception of stress was observed among individuals with rosacea (correlation coefficient r = 0.314). Similarly, the strongest links between itch intensity and experiences of stigmatization, anxiety, and depression were found in patients with seborrheic dermatitis (correlation coefficients r = 0.317, r = 0.356, and r = 0.400, respectively). Utilizing a stepwise linear regression analysis, it was determined that within the entire patient cohort, 9.3% of the variation in itch intensity could be accounted for by factors including gender, levels of anxiety, depression, and perceived stigmatization. Females and individuals with elevated anxiety, depression, and perceived stigmatization scores reported more pronounced itch intensities compared to those with contrary attributes. Conclusion: This study underscores the connection between experiencing itch and its intensity and the psychological strain it places on individuals. Consequently, psychological interventions should encompass both addressing the itch itself and the interconnected psychological factors. In specific cases, it becomes imperative for dermatologists to direct individuals towards suitable healthcare resources to undergo further psychological assessment