Long Term Prognostic Impact of Sex-specific Longitudinal Changes in Blood Pressure. The EPIC-Norfolk Prospective Population Cohort Study

AIMS: We aimed to determine the sex differences in longitudinal systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP) trajectories in mid-life and delineate the associations between these and mortality (all-cause, cardiovascular, and non-cardiovascular) and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) in old age. METHODS AND RESULTS: Participants were selected from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer, Norfolk (EPIC-Norfolk) cohort study. Sex-specific trajectories were determined using group-based trajectory models using three clinic BP measurements acquired between 1993 and 2012 (mean exposure ∼12.9 years). Multivariable Cox regressions determined the associations between trajectories and incident outcomes over the follow-up (median follow-up 9.4 years). A total of 2897 men (M) and 3819 women (F) were included. At baseline, women were younger (F-55.5, M-57.1), had a worse cardiometabolic profile and were less likely to receive primary CVD prevention including antihypertensive treatment (F-36.0%, M-42.0%). Over the exposure period, women had lower SBP trajectories while men exhibited more pronounced SBP decreases over this period. Over the follow-up period, women had lower mortality (F-11.9%, M-20.5%) and CVD incidence (F-19.8%, M-29.6%). Compared to optimal SBP (≤120 mmHg) and DBP (≤70 mmHg) trajectories, hypertensive trajectories were associated with increased mortality and incident CVD in both men and women during follow-up at univariable level. These associations were nevertheless not maintained upon extensive confounder adjustment including antihypertensive therapies. CONCLUSION: We report sex disparities in CVD prevention which may relate to worse cardiometabolic profiles and less pronounced longitudinal SBP decreases in women. Effective anti-hypertensivetherapy may offset the adverse outcomes associated with prolonged exposure to high blood pressure

The Role of Fructose as a Cardiovascular Risk Factor: An Update

There is increasing presence of fructose in food and drinks, and some evidence suggests that its higher consumption increases cardiovascular risk, although the mechanisms still remain not fully elucidated. Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are still responsible for one-third of deaths worldwide, and therefore, their prevention should be assessed and managed comprehensively and not by the evaluation of individual risk factor components. Lifestyle risk factors for CVD include low degree of physical activity, high body mass index, alcohol consumption, smoking, and nutritional factors. Indeed, nutritional risk factors for CVD include unhealthy dietary behaviors, such as high intake of refined foods, unhealthy fats, added sugars, and sodium and a low intake of fruits, vegetables, whole grains, fiber, fish, and nuts. Even though there is no definitive association between CVD incidence and high consumption of total sugar, such as sucrose and fructose, there is, however, evidence that total sugars, added sugars, and fructose are harmfully associated with CVD mortality. Since high fructose intake is associated with elevated plasma triglyceride levels, as well as insulin resistance, diabetes hyperuricemia, and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, further longitudinal studies should be conducted to fully elucidate the potential association between certain sugars and CVD

Country-level determinants of the severity of the first global wave of the COVID-19 pandemic : an ecological study

Acknowledgements We would like to thank Dr Kathryn Martin, who provided valuable advice in study design. Funding This work was supported by the Aberdeen Clinical Academic Training Scheme.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Meropenem vs standard of care for treatment of neonatal late onset sepsis (NeoMero1): A randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The early use of broad-spectrum antibiotics remains the cornerstone for the treatment of neonatal late onset sepsis (LOS). However, which antibiotics should be used is still debatable, as relevant studies were conducted more than 20 years ago, recruited in single centres or countries, evaluated antibiotics not in clinical use anymore and had variable inclusion/exclusion criteria and outcome measures. Moreover, antibiotic-resistant bacteria have become a major problem in many countries worldwide. We hypothesized that efficacy of meropenem as a broad-spectrum antibiotic is superior to standard of care regimens (SOC) in empiric treatment of LOS and aimed to compare meropenem to SOC in infants aged 44 weeks meeting the Goldstein criteria of sepsis, were randomized in a 1:1 ratio to receive meropenem or one of the two SOC regimens (ampicillin+gentamicin or cefotaxime+gentamicin) chosen by each site prior to the start of the study for 8-14 days. The primary outcome was treatment success (survival, no modification of allocated therapy, resolution/improvement of clinical and laboratory markers, no need of additional antibiotics and presumed/confirmed eradication of pathogens) at test-of-cure visit (TOC) in full analysis set. Stool samples were tested at baseline and Day 28 for meropenem-resistant Gram-negative organisms (CRGNO). The primary analysis was performed in all randomised patients and in patients with culture confirmed LOS. Proportions of participants with successful outcome were compared by using a logistic regression model adjusted for the stratification factors. From September 3, 2012 to November 30th 2014, total of 136 patients (instead of planned 275) in each arm were randomized; 140 (52%) were culture positive. Successful outcome at TOC was achieved in 44/136 (32%) in the meropenem arm vs. 31/135 (23%) in the SOC arm (p = 0.087). The respective numbers in patients with positive cultures were 17/63 (27%) vs. 10/77 (13%) (p = 0.022). The main reason of failure was modification of allocated therapy. Treatment emergent adverse events occurred in 72% and serious adverse events in 17% of patients, the Day 28 mortality was 6%. Cumulative acquisition of CRGNO by Day 28 occurred in 4% of patients in the meropenem and 12% in the SOC arm (p = 0.052). CONCLUSIONS: Within this study population, we found no evidence that meropenem was superior to SOC in terms of success at TOC, short term hearing disturbances, safety or mortality were similar in both treatment arms but the study was underpowered to detect the planned effect. Meropenem treatment did not select for colonization with CRGNOs. We suggest that meropenem as broad-spectrum antibiotic should be reserved for neonates who are more likely to have Gram-negative LOS, especially in NICUs where microorganisms producing extended spectrum- and AmpC type beta-lactamases are circulating

Toxoplasmosis in Transplant Recipients, Europe, 2010-2014

Transplantation activity is increasing, leading to a growing number of patients at risk for toxoplasmosis. We reviewed toxoplasmosis prevention practices, prevalence, and outcomes for hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT) and solid organ transplant (SOT; heart, kidney, or liver) patients in Europe. We collected electronic data on the transplant population and prevention guidelines/regulations and clinical data on toxoplasmosis cases diagnosed during 2010-2014. Serologic pretransplant screening of allo-hematopoietic stem cell donors was performed in 80% of countries, screening of organ donors in 100%. SOT recipients were systematically screened in 6 countries. Targeted anti-Toxoplasma chemoprophylaxis was heterogeneous. A total of 87 toxoplasmosis cases were recorded (58 allo-HSCTs, 29 SOTs). The 6-month survival rate was lower among Toxoplasma-seropositive recipients and among allo-hematopoietic stem cell and liver recipients. Chemoprophylaxis improved outcomes for SOT recipients. Toxoplasmosis remains associated with high mortality rates among transplant recipients. Guidelines are urgently needed to standardize prophylactic regimens and optimize patient management

Changes in disease burden in Poland between 1990–2017 in comparison with other Central European countries: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Systematic collection of mortality/morbidity data over time is crucial for monitoring trends in population health, developing health policies, assessing the impact of health programs. In Poland, a comprehensive analysis describing trends in disease burden for major conditions has never been published. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides data on the burden of over 300 diseases in 195 countries since 1990. We used the GBD database to undertake an assessment of disease burden in Poland, evaluate changes in population health between 1990–2017, and compare Poland with other Central European (CE) countries

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

How local is local? Evidence from bank competition and corporate innovation in U.S.

This paper aims to fill in a research gap in the effects of bank competition on corporate innovation. In addition to the evidence on the favorable effects of bank competition on corporate innovation, we show novel evidence on the substitution effects of bank competition in a wider region and neighbor-state to local bank competition in financing corporate innovation activities. In banking market, we show ‘how local is local’ depends on the operating scope and information transparency of firms. Local banks have an information advantage over distant banks in financing local businesses and informationally opaque corporate innovation activities

On the relationship between individual and population health

The relationship between individual and population health is partially built on the broad dichotomization of medicine into clinical medicine and public health. Potential drawbacks of current views include seeing both individual and population health as absolute and independent concepts. I will argue that the relationship between individual and population health is largely relative and dynamic. Their interrelated dynamism derives from a causally defined life course perspective on health determination starting from an individual’s conception through growth, development and participation in the collective till death, all seen within the context of an adaptive society. Indeed, it will become clear that neither individual nor population health is identifiable or even definable without informative contextualization within the other. For instance, a person’s health cannot be seen in isolation but must be placed in the rich contextual web such as the socioeconomic circumstances and other health determinants of where they were conceived, born, bred, and how they shaped and were shaped by their environment and communities, especially given the prevailing population health exposures over their lifetime. We cannot discuss the “what” and “how much” of individual and population health until we know the cumulative trajectories of both, using appropriate causal language