Preparing ocean governance for species on the move

Policy must anticipate conflict over geographic shifts</jats:p

Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities

Climate change is expected to profoundly affect key food production sectors, including fisheries and agriculture. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these sectors are rarely considered jointly, especially below national scales, which can mask substantial variability in how communities will be affected. Here, we combine socioeconomic surveys of 3,008 households and intersectoral multi-model simulation outputs to conduct a sub-national analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and agriculture in 72 coastal communities across five Indo-Pacific countries (Indonesia, Madagascar, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, and Tanzania). Our study reveals three key findings: First, overall potential losses to fisheries are higher than potential losses to agriculture. Second, while most locations (> 2/3) will experience potential losses to both fisheries and agriculture simultaneously, climate change mitigation could reduce the proportion of places facing that double burden. Third, potential impacts are more likely in communities with lower socioeconomic status

Working paper analysing the economic implications of the proposed 30% target for areal protection in the draft post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framewor

58 pages, 5 figures, 3 tables- The World Economic Forum now ranks biodiversity loss as a top-five risk to the global economy, and the draft post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework proposes an expansion of conservation areas to 30% of the earth’s surface by 2030 (hereafter the “30% target”), using protected areas (PAs) and other effective area-based conservation measures (OECMs). - Two immediate concerns are how much a 30% target might cost and whether it will cause economic losses to the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sectors. - Conservation areas also generate economic benefits (e.g. revenue from nature tourism and ecosystem services), making PAs/Nature an economic sector in their own right. - If some economic sectors benefit but others experience a loss, high-level policy makers need to know the net impact on the wider economy, as well as on individual sectors. [...]A. Waldron, K. Nakamura, J. Sze, T. Vilela, A. Escobedo, P. Negret Torres, R. Button, K. Swinnerton, A. Toledo, P. Madgwick, N. Mukherjee were supported by National Geographic and the Resources Legacy Fund. V. Christensen was supported by NSERC Discovery Grant RGPIN-2019-04901. M. Coll and J. Steenbeek were supported by EU Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 817578 (TRIATLAS). D. Leclere was supported by TradeHub UKRI CGRF project. R. Heneghan was supported by Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities, Acciones de Programacion Conjunta Internacional (PCIN-2017-115). M. di Marco was supported by MIUR Rita Levi Montalcini programme. A. Fernandez-Llamazares was supported by Academy of Finland (grant nr. 311176). S. Fujimori and T. Hawegawa were supported by The Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (2-2002) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan and the Sumitomo Foundation. V. Heikinheimo was supported by Kone Foundation, Social Media for Conservation project. K. Scherrer was supported by the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 682602. U. Rashid Sumaila acknowledges the OceanCanada Partnership, which funded by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC). T. Toivonen was supported by Osk. Huttunen Foundation & Clare Hall college, Cambridge. W. Wu was supported by The Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (2-2002) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan. Z. Yuchen was supported by a Ministry of Education of Singapore Research Scholarship Block (RSB) Research FellowshipPeer reviewe

Transboundary fish stocks and their management under climate change

Under the United Nations Law of the Seas and the delineation of Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs), fish stocks that cross neighbouring EEZs are known as transboundary stocks. The sustainability of these stocks depends on international cooperation. However, cooperation is faced with the challenges of insufficient understanding of where and how much fisheries resources are transboundary and climate change is shifting the distribution of marine species. My main objective is to understand the impacts of climate change-induced shifts on transboundary fish stocks distributions and their management, thereby informing international fisheries governance to prepare and respond to climate change. I rely on multiple data sources and numerical modelling to project species distributions under different scenarios of climate change. I found that 67% of the species analyzed are transboundary and that between 2005 and 2014, fisheries targeting these species within global‐EEZs caught on average 48 million tonnes per year, equivalent to USD 77 billion in fishing revenue. As climate change alters ocean properties, the distribution of these species’ transboundary stocks are projected to shift to higher latitude, deeper waters or follow local environmental gradients. Specifically, 60% of the global transboundary stocks will have shifted beyond their historical distribution by 2020, and by 2075, all EEZs are projected to have a shifting transboundary stock. Moreover, the shared proportion of the catch of transboundary stocks between neighboring EEZs will change by 2030 relative to the historic proportion. The changes in the distribution and share proportion of transboundary stocks can potentially impacts the management of the related fisheries. For example, Canada and the United States manage important transboundary stocks. However, by 2050, the proportion of the total catch of some transboundary fish stocks shared between the two countries are expected to change relative to the present, even under a low greenhouse gas emissions scenario. My findings improve our understanding about the current status of transboundary stocks and highlight the challenges that fisheries management will face in a changing climate. Finally, I identify potential adaptation options for transboundary fisheries management such as side payments, dynamic rules, and interchangeable quotas that can improve their sustainability under climate change.Science, Faculty ofZoology, Department ofGraduat

Projecting contributions of marine protected areas to rebuild fish stocks under climate change

Abstract No-take marine protected areas (No-take MPAs) are considered as a major tool for conserving marine biodiversity and ecosystem services. No-take MPAs can also contribute to climate adaptation for exploited fish stocks. Meanwhile, many fish stocks in the world are overfished and management institutions are developing plans to rebuild them. Understanding the potential effects of no-take MPAs on fish stocks under climate change can help develop strategies for climate-resilient stock rebuilding. Here, using a linked climate-fish-fishing model, we undertake simulation experiments to examine the effects of no-take MPAs on biomass and potential catches of 231 exploited fish and invertebrate species in eight marine ecoregions in the Northeast Atlantic under climate change. The simulations include different levels of fishing, no-take MPAs coverage, atmospheric global warming levels, and account for the expected displacement of fishing to the area around the no-take MPAs. Average individual stock biomass is projected to decrease by 5–15% per degree Celsius atmospheric warming. Having 30% of the distribution of over-exploited fish stocks under no-take MPAs together with conservation-focused fisheries management of these stocks are projected to offset the negative impacts on their biomass under 2.6–2.9 °C global warming. Meanwhile, potential catches increase when a portion of the over-exploited fish stocks is protected from fishing as higher biomass in the no-take MPAs spills-over to the surrounding areas. Our findings highlight that no-take MPAs, combined with reducing fishing intensity, can help rebuild over-exploited fish biomass and benefit their dependent fisheries in the Northeast Atlantic under projected climate change in the 21st century

Evaluating the bio-economic performance of a Callo de hacha (Atrina maura, Atrina tuberculosa & Pinna rugosa) fishery restoration plan in La Paz, Mexico.

Small-scale fisheries are large contributors to regional economies and livelihoods in coastal communities of Latin America. While Mexico is one of the cases where small-scale fisheries play an important role, overfishing and poor management strategies have led to the collapse of many of its fisheries. The callo de hacha scallop fishery of the Ensenada de La Paz in Baja California Sur is an example of such a fishery which, after years of mismanagement, was closed by the Mexican authorities in 2009. The present study evaluated the recovery efforts in the cove and the potential outcomes of a collaboration between a non-governmental organization and a fishing community working towards the restoration of this pen-shell fishery. After more than four years of closure and active monitoring of the recovering process, the callo de hacha population has shown a significant population recovery, with potential solvency for reopening fishing activities. Four scenarios of uncertainty are evaluated with two of them providing positive net present values from reopening the fishery. We also document the involvement of a non-governmental organization with a fishing community, which created social capital and, in our opinion, was essential for a successful restoration. Having an actively involved community helped raise funds for the fishing closure so fishers were able to comply with Mexican legislation; it also fostered community building and self-organization that will be crucial to maintaining the sustainability of the fishery

Quantifying abundance trends and environmental effects on a population of queen scallop Aequipecten opercularis targeted by artisanal fishers in a coastal upwelling area (Ría de Arousa, NW Spain) using a Bayesian spatial model

11 pages, 8 figuresQueen scallop Aequipecten opercularis, is exploited by small-scale trawlers in separated aggregations along the east Atlantic coast and the Mediterranean Sea. However, population performance is poorly known. Here, we combine official information and on-board observers’ data over two decades to study the fishery ecology of an aggregation occurring in a coastal upwelling system (Ría de Arousa, NW Spain). Annual landings fluctuated around a mean of 170 tons while beam trawlers declined at a rate of 11 vessels per decade. A hurdle Bayesian spatial model fitted to observers’ catch and effort data showed that the probability of occurrence and abundance of the species increased with fishing effort and decreased in sandy bottoms. Moreover, abundance increased with upwelling intensity and decreased with continental runoff and along the fishing season. Furthermore, occurrence was higher in the inner part of the embayment while abundance increased in the central channel. The predicted index of standardized abundance correlated with the trend in landings, and year-to-year fluctuations in abundance were negatively and positively related to upwelling intensity and net primary production, respectively, during the spawning and settlement periodL.O. thanks the Consellería de Cultura, Educación e Ordenación Universitaria from the Xunta de Galicia for the financial support through the Postdoctoral Program I2C 2014 (ED481B 2014/051-0)Peer reviewe

Iron Profile of Octopus Hubbsorum (Cephalopoda: Octopodidae) for Enrichment of the Mexican Diet

FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) declared that 12% of the world’s population is undernourished while in Mexico the number is around 5%. Minerals are essential for the daily diet; iron (Fe) is an important mineral on human welfare because it has a main role on the function of the immune and central nervous systems, among others. Most Mexicans fulfill their iron requirements from vegetables, which are poorly absorbed; nevertheless, in coastal populations, where seafood-rich in iron- is available, it is not consumed on a regular diet. The aim of this work was to analyze minerals, focusing on the iron content of Octopus hubbsorum B (Cephalopoda: Octopodidae), an animal of the Mexican Pacific coast. Three specimens were analyzed, two from the north and one from central Pacific Ocean. Data obtained for the central Pacific Octopus was 0.008% and data for the North Pacific were 0.008% and 0.011%, repectively. In conclusion, the supply of iron for the Mexican diet provided by Octopus hubbsorum B is significant, therefore is recommended to consume more of this resource, to diminish iron deficiency, a world-wide problem, and to improve human healt

Quantifying fish range shifts across poorly defined management boundaries

Management regimes of marine resources that rely on spatial boundaries might be poorly adapted to climate change shifts in species distributions. This is of specific concern for the management of fish stocks that cross management jurisdictions, known as shared stocks. Transitioning to dynamic rules in spatial management has been suggested as a solution for mismatches between species distributions and the spatial boundaries. However, in many cases spatial boundaries are not clearly drawn, hampering such transitions. Here, we use black sea bass (Centropristis striata), summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus) and scup (Stenotomus chrysops) as case studies to explore different approaches to designing spatial regulatory units to facilitate the adaptation of fisheries management to shifting distributions of shared stocks. First, we determine the yearly distribution of each stock within the United States Exclusive Economic Zone from 1951 to 2019 during Fall and Spring sampling seasons. Second, we explore two approaches for drawing regulatory units based on state waters and historical landings. Finally, we estimate each state’s proportion of the stock’s distribution and compare historical and recent values. We show that the distribution of all three stocks has changed relative to the years used to determine the current quota allocation across states, with an overall gain for central-northern states at the expense of the southernmost states. In terms of the distribution of allocation, we find that, while seasonal differences exist, the biggest differences in the proportion of the stock spatial distribution attributed to each state come from the method for designing regulatory units. Here, we show that the method used to define allocation units can have meaningful impacts on resulting adaptive policy. As climate change-driven conflicts in fishing resource allocation are expected to increase and deepen around the world, we provide a replicable approach to make an informed and transparent choice to support data-driven decision-making